Premier League Gameweek 28 Sat, Feb 28 2026 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley
3–4 Full time · HT 1–3 xG 0.97 – 2.25
Brentford
  • M. Kayode 45’ (OG)
  • J. Anthony 47’
  • Z. Flemming 60’
  • 9’, 90’ M. Damsgaard
  • 25’ Thiago
  • 34’ K. Schade
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Damsgaard’s late goal settles it for Brentford

Brentford entered as narrow favourites and won 4–3 through goals from Damsgaard, Thiago and Schade. Burnley replied through goals from Anthony, Flemming and an own goal. Brentford finished with the higher xG (2.25 vs 0.97).

Burnley30%
Draw26%
Brentford ✓43%

Model vs reality

Burnley goals
3
Model 1.26 · xG 0.97
Brentford goals
4
Model 1.55 · xG 2.25
Total goals
7
Model 2.80 · xG 3.22
Score 3–4
<1%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
Yes
Model 53%
Both scored
Yes
Model 57%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. DamsgaardBrentford · 2 goals · 1 assist
9.3
  • RefereeSamuel Barrott
  • VenueTurf Moor
  • Table before kick-offBurnley 19th · Brentford 7th

Timeline

  1. Y. YarmoliukYellow card · Argument
    -5’
  2. M. Damsgaard 0–1Assist D. Ouattara
    9’
  3. Thiago 0–2Assist M. Damsgaard
    25’
  4. K. Schade 0–3
    34’
  5. M. Kayode (own goal) 1–3
    45’
  6. Half time · 1–3
  7. ⇄ L. UgochukwuFor J. Laurent
    46’
  8. ⇄ L. FosterFor J. Bruun Larsen
    46’
  9. J. Anthony 2–3Assist H. Mejbri
    47’
  10. Z. Flemming 3–3Assist H. Mejbri
    60’
  11. ⇄ K. Lewis-PotterFor K. Schade
    72’
  12. ⇄ R. DonovanFor D. Ouattara
    72’
  13. ⇄ J. HendersonFor Y. Yarmoliuk
    73’
  14. ⇄ FlorentinoFor J. Ward-Prowse
    75’
  15. ThiagoYellow card · Foul
    77’
  16. VAR Z. FlemmingGoal cancelled
    81’
  17. ⇄ L. TchaounaFor H. Mejbri
    84’
  18. B. HumphreysYellow card · Time wasting
    86’
  19. M. Damsgaard 3–4Assist R. Henry
    90’
  20. ⇄ A. BarnesFor Z. Flemming
    90+1’
  21. L. FosterYellow card · Argument
    90+11’
  22. VAR A. BarnesGoal cancelled
    90+13’
  23. Full time · 3–4

Team stats

Burnley12 shots · 9 in box, 3 outside
Brentford16 shots · 13 in box, 3 outside
BurnleyBrentford
41% Possession 59%
0.97 Expected goals (xG) 2.25
0.64 Expected points (xPts) 2.18
12 Shots 16
3 Shots on target 7
7 Shots off target 4
2 Blocked shots 5
9 Shots inside the box 13
3 Shots outside the box 3
326 Passes 463
79% Pass accuracy 81%
4 Corners 8
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
9 Fouls 9
2 Offsides 0
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
6.70 Team rating 6.92

Line-ups

Burnley 3-4-2-1

16.0 M. Dúbravka(G)
56.3 M. Estève 45.3 J. Worrall 126.5 B. Humphreys
237.5 Lucas Pires 287.3 H. Mejbri AA↓84’ 206.5 J. Ward-Prowse ↓75’ 296.3 J. Laurent ↓46’
117.9 J. Anthony 76.3 J. Bruun Larsen ↓46’
197.3 Z. Flemming ↓90’
  • 1M. Dúbravka (G)6.0
  • 5M. Estève6.3
  • 4J. Worrall5.3
  • 12B. Humphreys6.5
  • 23Lucas Pires7.5
  • 28H. MejbriA×2↓84’7.3
  • 20J. Ward-Prowse↓75’6.5
  • 29J. Laurent↓46’6.3
  • 11J. Anthony7.9
  • 7J. Bruun Larsen↓46’6.3
  • 19Z. Flemming↓90’7.3

Substitutes used

  • 17L. Tchaouna↑84’6.6
  • 8L. Ugochukwu↑46’6.7
  • 35A. Barnes↑90’6.3
  • 16Florentino↑75’6.6
  • 9L. Foster↑46’7.0

Unused: Max Weiss, K. Walker, Q. Hartman, H. Ekdal

Brentford 4-2-3-1

126.3 H. Valdimarsson(G)
36.3 R. Henry A 46.3 S. van den Berg 206.0 K. Ajer 336.9 M. Kayode
86.7 M. Jensen 186.5 Y. Yarmoliuk ↓73’
76.6 K. Schade ↓72’ 249.3★ M. Damsgaard A 196.9 D. Ouattara A↓72’
98.2 Thiago
  • 12H. Valdimarsson (G)6.3
  • 3R. HenryA6.3
  • 4S. van den Berg6.3
  • 20K. Ajer6.0
  • 33M. Kayode6.9
  • 8M. Jensen6.7
  • 18Y. Yarmoliuk↓73’6.5
  • 7K. Schade↓72’6.6
  • 24M. Damsgaard ★A9.3
  • 19D. OuattaraA↓72’6.9
  • 9Thiago8.2

Substitutes used

  • 6J. Henderson↑73’6.6
  • 23K. Lewis-Potter↑72’6.9
  • 45R. Donovan↑72’6.9

Unused: E. Balcombe, E. Pinnock, N. Collins, K. Furo, Ollie Shield, Luka Bentt

Player stats

Top rated
M. DamsgaardBrentford9.3
2nd
ThiagoBrentford8.2
3rd
J. AnthonyBurnley7.9

Burnley

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Dúbravka G 90 0 0 2 sv 0 57% 30 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.0
M. Estève D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 84% 38 0 1 0/0 1/1 6.3
J. Worrall D 90 0 0 1 (0) 0 94% 17 0 0 0/0 0/0 5.3
B. Humphreys D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 65% 40 2 0 2/2 1/0 6.5
Lucas Pires D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 85% 33 2 0 0/1 2/0 7.5
H. Mejbri M 84 0 2 1 (0) 2 81% 31 3 1 3/4 0/3 7.3
J. Ward-Prowse M 75 0 0 0 (0) 1 83% 30 0 1 0/0 0/1 6.5
J. Laurent M 46 0 0 0 (0) 4 78% 23 1 0 1/2 0/0 6.3
J. Anthony F 90 1 0 5 (2) 0 85% 27 2 0 4/8 2/0 7.9
J. Bruun Larsen F 46 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 4 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.3
Z. Flemming M 90 1 0 2 (1) 0 69% 13 1 1 1/1 1/0 7.3
L. Tchaouna F 6 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 3 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
L. Ugochukwu M 44 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 10 1 0 1/2 1/1 6.7
A. Barnes F 1 0 0 0 (0) 0 0% 1 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.3
Florentino M 15 0 0 0 (0) 0 60% 10 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.6
L. Foster F 44 0 0 0 (0) 1 94% 16 1 0 1/1 0/1 7.0

Brentford

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
H. Valdimarsson G 90 0 0 1 sv 0 73% 41 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
R. Henry D 90 0 1 0 (0) 2 76% 49 2 0 2/2 1/0 6.3
S. van den Berg D 90 0 0 3 (1) 0 87% 68 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
K. Ajer D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 94% 49 1 0 0/0 1/0 6.0
M. Kayode D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 89% 35 4 0 5/7 0/2 6.9
M. Jensen M 90 0 0 1 (1) 0 88% 57 1 2 1/1 0/0 6.7
Y. Yarmoliuk M 73 0 0 0 (0) 0 85% 39 2 2 0/0 1/1 6.5
K. Schade M 72 1 0 2 (1) 0 84% 19 1 0 0/2 0/1 6.6
M. Damsgaard M 90 2 1 3 (2) 2 80% 44 1 2 0/2 2/0 9.3
D. Ouattara F 72 0 1 0 (0) 2 67% 12 0 0 0/1 0/2 6.9
Thiago F 90 1 0 2 (2) 1 60% 25 2 1 4/5 4/1 8.2
J. Henderson M 17 0 0 0 (0) 1 62% 13 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.6
K. Lewis-Potter F 18 0 0 0 (0) 1 86% 7 0 0 1/1 0/0 6.9
R. Donovan M 18 0 0 0 (0) 0 40% 5 0 0 2/3 0/1 6.9

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.