Burnley vs Brentford – 28 Feb 2026

Premier League Gameweek 28 Sat, Feb 28 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley

Burnley 19th · 19 pts · 27 played DLLWD

3–4Full time

Brentford 7th · 40 pts · 27 played LWWDL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brentford were slight favourites.

Brentford were the stronger side on L90 Strength (74 vs 53). Burnley had 7 days of rest, Brentford 7 and had to travel 288 km.

Away travel288 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Burnley30%

Draw26%

Brentford43%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.55

Burnley31%

Draw27%

Brentford42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Burnley30%

Draw26%

Brentford43%

Expected goals 1.24 – 1.52

Burnley24%

Draw25%

Brentford51%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.73

Burnley31%

Draw27%

Brentford43%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.48

Over 2.5 53% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeSamuel Barrott

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 77

Team strength

Burnley

Brentford

53 L90 StrengthIn forecast 74

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

27 AttackIn forecast 73

25 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Burnley

Brentford

1.07 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.48

1.93 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.37

0.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.61

1.97 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.38

+0.23 Goals minus xGContext -0.13

67% Scored inContext 70%

11% Clean sheetsContext 22%

9.11 ShotsContext 10.48

3.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.00

33% On target shareContext 38%

5.48 Shots in the boxContext 8.04

59% Box shareContext 72%

12% ConversionContext 14%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.09

16.52 Shots allowedContext 12.56

5.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.07

5.13 BlocksContext 4.37

3.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.04

66% Save rateContext 70%

41% PossessionIn forecast 47%

377 PassesContext 389

294 Accurate passesContext 308

78% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.68 Team ratingContext 6.85

9.96 FoulsContext 11.19

9.22 Fouls sufferedContext 9.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.96

0.04 Red cardsContext 0.04

This league season, per match · 27 and 27 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

0.85 xGVia Att/Def 1.88

1.85 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.65 Goals minus xGContext -0.48

70% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 40%

10.20 ShotsContext 12.30

3.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

31% On target shareContext 37%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 9.00

67% Box shareContext 73%

15% ConversionContext 11%

2.00 OffsidesContext 2.33

18.00 Shots allowedContext 11.40

6.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.70

6.50 BlocksContext 3.80

4.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

64% Save rateContext 73%

43% PossessionIn forecast 51%

412 PassesContext 447

334 Accurate passesContext 366

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.79 Team ratingContext 6.92

10.20 FoulsContext 10.10

9.10 Fouls sufferedContext 10.40

2.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km583 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel288 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Burnley	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb	7Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Feb
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	288 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	583 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 4	1 / 1 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	3.2	3.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1M. Dúbravka(G)

5M. Estève 4J. Worrall 12B. Humphreys

23Lucas Pires 28H. Mejbri 20J. Ward-Prowse 29J. Laurent

11J. Anthony 7J. Bruun Larsen

19Z. Flemming

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

12H. Valdimarsson(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 20K. Ajer 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

7K. Schade 24M. Damsgaard 19D. Ouattara

9Thiago

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Burnley Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Burnley-0.1 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Brentford+0.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 0.77points per game · 13 home games

W-D-L: 2-4-7
Scored: 0.92
Conceded: 1.46

Brentford · Away 1.15points per game · 13 away games

W-D-L: 5-0-8
Scored: 1.23
Conceded: 1.69

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Burnley	Brentford
Chelsea	D 1–1 AL 0–2 H	L 0–2 AD 2–2 H
Crystal Palace	W 3–2 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 A
West Ham	L 0–2 HL 2–3 A	W 2–0 A
Sunderland	L 0–3 AW 2–0 H	W 3–0 HL 1–2 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 HL 0–3 A	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A
Liverpool	D 1–1 AL 0–1 H	W 3–2 H
Manchester United	D 2–2 HL 2–3 A	W 3–1 H
Brighton	L 0–2 A	L 0–2 HL 1–2 A
Newcastle	L 1–3 HL 1–2 A	W 3–2 AW 3–1 H
Everton	D 0–0 H	W 4–2 A
Bournemouth	D 1–1 A	W 4–1 H
Fulham	L 2–3 H	L 1–3 A
Arsenal	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Wolves	W 3–2 A	W 2–0 A
Leeds	W 2–0 H	D 1–1 H
Aston Villa	L 1–2 A	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H
Manchester City	L 1–5 A	L 0–1 H
Nottingham Forest	D 1–1 H	L 0–2 HL 1–3 A
Points	19 of 78 · 0.73 per game	37 of 78 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings

2 Burnley wins0 draws3 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.20 – 2.00 Over 2.580% Both scored60% Clean sheets0% · 40%

29 Nov 2025Brentford3–1Burnley
16 Mar 2024Burnley2–1Brentford
21 Oct 2023Brentford3–0Burnley
12 Mar 2022Brentford2–0Burnley
30 Oct 2021Burnley3–1Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Burnley	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.07	1.48
Conceded per game	1.93	1.37
Match goals	3.00	2.85	2.80
Over 1.5	89%	85%
Over 2.5	52%	48%	53%
Over 3.5	37%	37%
Both teams scored	59%	52%	57%
Clean sheets	11%	22%
Failed to score	33%	30%
Games	27	27

	Burnley	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.60
Conceded per game	1.80	1.20
Match goals	2.80	2.80	2.80
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	40%	53%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%	57%
Clean sheets	10%	30%
Failed to score	40%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Burnley	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	3.44	5.15
Corners conceded	5.85	5.19
Match total	9.29	10.34	9.98
Over 8.5	52% 14/27	77% 20/26
Over 9.5	48% 13/27	69% 18/26
Over 10.5	33% 9/27	58% 15/26
Cards
Cards	1.78	2.00
Opponent cards	1.26	1.74
Match total	3.04	3.74	3.89
Over 3.5	41% 11/27	56% 15/27
Over 4.5	19% 5/27	41% 11/27

	Burnley	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	2.90	5.20
Corners conceded	5.00	4.80
Match total	7.90	10.00	9.98
Over 8.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	10% 1/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.40	1.80
Opponent cards	1.10	1.20
Match total	3.50	3.00	3.89
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Samuel Barrott 77 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.61league 3.75

Red cards0.06league 0.12

Cards 5+30%league 39%

Fouls20.3league 21.5

Penalties0.25league 0.22

Home wins38%league 42%

Burnley5 with this referee

Record0-0-5 Cards · opp.2.6 · 1.6 Pens for · against2 · 2

L29 Nov 25A · Brentford1–32
L30 Aug 25A · Manchester United2–35
L31 Jan 24A · Manchester City1–32
L25 Nov 23H · West Ham1–21
L28 Oct 23A · Bournemouth1–23

Brentford6 with this referee

Record4-0-2 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.0 Pens for · against1 · 1

L25 Jan 26H · Nottingham Forest0–21
W29 Nov 25H · Burnley3–10
W10 May 25A · Ipswich1–03
L19 Oct 24A · Manchester United1–22
W18 Aug 24H · Crystal Palace2–11

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.