Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 2025 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley
1–1 Full time · HT 1–1 xG 0.85 – 1.10
Nottingham Forest
  • J. Anthony 20’
  • 2’ N. Williams
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

Burnley and Nottingham Forest share the points

Burnley entered as narrow favourites, yet Nottingham Forest led 1–0 after 2 minutes through a Williams goal. But Anthony scored to rescue a draw for Burnley. The chances were even, with xG of 0.85 and 1.10.

Burnley41%
Draw ✓26%
Nottingham Forest33%

Model vs reality

Burnley goals
1
Model 1.50 · xG 0.85
Nottingham Forest goals
1
Model 1.34 · xG 1.10
Total goals
2
Model 2.85 · xG 1.95
Score 1–1
12%
Most likely 1–1 (12%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 54%
Both scored
Yes
Model 58%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchN. WilliamsNottingham Forest · 1 goal
7.9
  • RefereeThomas Bramall
  • VenueTurf Moor
  • Table before kick-offBurnley 17th · Nottingham Forest 15th

Timeline

  1. N. Williams 0–1
    2’
  2. FlorentinoYellow card · Foul
    16’
  3. J. Anthony 1–1Assist L. Foster
    20’
  4. Half time · 1–1
  5. ⇄ C. Hudson-OdoiFor D. Bakwa
    59’
  6. ⇄ Igor JesusFor C. Wood
    75’
  7. ⇄ I. SangaréFor D. Ndoye
    76’
  8. ⇄ A. KalimuendoFor Douglas Luiz
    76’
  9. ⇄ H. MejbriFor L. Tchaouna
    81’
  10. ⇄ Z. FlemmingFor L. Foster
    86’
  11. MoratoYellow card · Foul
    90+2’
  12. Full time · 1–1

Team stats

Burnley12 shots · 9 in box, 3 outside
Nottingham Forest17 shots · 9 in box, 8 outside
BurnleyNottingham Forest
37% Possession 63%
0.85 Expected goals (xG) 1.10
1.15 Expected points (xPts) 1.54
12 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 8
4 Shots off target 2
3 Blocked shots 7
9 Shots inside the box 9
3 Shots outside the box 8
348 Passes 628
77% Pass accuracy 90%
4 Corners 5
7 Goalkeeper saves 4
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.96 Team rating 6.83

Line-ups

Burnley 5-4-1

17.2 M. Dúbravka(G)
37.0 Q. Hartman 57.0 M. Estève 186.7 H. Ekdal 296.2 J. Laurent 26.9 K. Walker
117.6 J. Anthony 166.6 Florentino 247.2 J. Cullen 176.7 L. Tchaouna ↓81’
97.5 L. Foster A↓86’
  • 1M. Dúbravka (G)7.2
  • 3Q. Hartman7.0
  • 5M. Estève7.0
  • 18H. Ekdal6.7
  • 29J. Laurent6.2
  • 2K. Walker6.9
  • 11J. Anthony7.6
  • 16Florentino6.6
  • 24J. Cullen7.2
  • 17L. Tchaouna↓81’6.7
  • 9L. FosterA↓86’7.5

Substitutes used

  • 19Z. Flemming↑86’6.7
  • 28H. Mejbri↑81’6.9

Unused: Max Weiss, J. Worrall, A. Broja, Lucas Pires, A. Barnes, M. Edwards, B. Humphreys

Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1

266.7 M. Sels(G)
357.2 O. Zinchenko 46.6 Morato 317.2 N. Milenković 37.9★ N. Williams
126.5 Douglas Luiz ↓76’ 87.3 E. Anderson
146.5 D. Ndoye ↓76’ 106.9 M. Gibbs-White 296.2 D. Bakwa ↓59’
116.0 C. Wood ↓75’
  • 26M. Sels (G)6.7
  • 35O. Zinchenko7.2
  • 4Morato6.6
  • 31N. Milenković7.2
  • 3N. Williams ★7.9
  • 12Douglas Luiz↓76’6.5
  • 8E. Anderson7.3
  • 14D. Ndoye↓76’6.5
  • 10M. Gibbs-White6.9
  • 29D. Bakwa↓59’6.2
  • 11C. Wood↓75’6.0

Substitutes used

  • 6I. Sangaré↑76’6.9
  • 19Igor Jesus↑75’6.3
  • 7C. Hudson-Odoi↑59’6.5
  • 15A. Kalimuendo↑76’6.0

Unused: John Victor, R. Yates, J. McAtee, Jair, O. Hutchinson

Player stats

Top rated
N. WilliamsNottingham Forest7.9
2nd
J. AnthonyBurnley7.6
3rd
L. FosterBurnley7.5

Burnley

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Dúbravka G 90 0 0 7 sv 0 43% 21 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
Q. Hartman D 90 0 0 1 (1) 3 82% 22 2 1 0/0 3/0 7.0
M. Estève D 90 0 0 2 (0) 1 85% 34 1 2 0/0 1/2 7.0
H. Ekdal D 90 0 0 2 (1) 0 80% 25 0 1 0/0 0/0 6.7
J. Laurent M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 36 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.2
K. Walker D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 64% 47 2 1 2/3 2/0 6.9
J. Anthony F 90 1 0 3 (3) 1 63% 32 1 1 4/6 0/0 7.6
Florentino M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 85% 34 4 2 1/1 1/0 6.6
J. Cullen M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 64 0 1 0/1 0/2 7.2
L. Tchaouna F 81 0 0 1 (0) 0 81% 16 1 0 0/2 2/1 6.7
L. Foster F 86 0 1 0 (0) 2 73% 15 0 0 3/3 1/4 7.5
Z. Flemming M 4 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
H. Mejbri M 9 0 0 0 (0) 1 100% 1 0 0 1/1 1/1 6.9

Nottingham Forest

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
M. Sels G 90 0 0 4 sv 0 79% 24 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7
O. Zinchenko D 90 0 0 1 (1) 1 96% 91 3 0 0/0 1/1 7.2
Morato D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 74 3 0 1/1 3/0 6.6
N. Milenković D 90 0 0 0 (0) 1 95% 66 0 1 0/0 0/0 7.2
N. Williams D 90 1 0 3 (2) 0 90% 58 2 3 1/1 1/2 7.9
Douglas Luiz M 76 0 0 0 (0) 1 89% 56 1 0 0/0 1/2 6.5
E. Anderson M 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 93% 107 1 2 1/2 0/1 7.3
D. Ndoye F 76 0 0 0 (0) 1 77% 26 1 1 0/1 0/2 6.5
M. Gibbs-White M 90 0 0 1 (1) 2 90% 40 0 0 0/1 2/1 6.9
D. Bakwa F 59 0 0 2 (2) 1 80% 25 0 0 1/4 2/2 6.2
C. Wood F 75 0 0 2 (1) 1 73% 15 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.0
I. Sangaré M 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 19 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
Igor Jesus F 15 0 0 1 (1) 1 100% 3 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
C. Hudson-Odoi F 31 0 0 0 (0) 2 94% 16 0 0 0/0 1/0 6.5
A. Kalimuendo F 14 0 0 0 (0) 0 88% 8 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.0

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.