Premier League Gameweek 5 Sat, Sep 20 · 15:00 Turf Moor, Burnley
Burnley 17th · 3 pts · 4 played
1–1Full time
Nottingham Forest 15th · 4 pts · 4 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Burnley had 6 days of rest, Nottingham Forest 7.1 and had to travel 118 km.

Away travel118 kmRest days6 · 7.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Burnley41%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest33%
Expected goals 1.50 – 1.34
Burnley40%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest33%
Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26
Burnley40%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest33%
Expected goals 1.47 – 1.32
Burnley33%
Draw26%
Nottingham Forest41%
Expected goals 1.34 – 1.51
Burnley40%
Draw27%
Nottingham Forest33%
Expected goals 1.45 – 1.29
Over 2.5 54% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Burnley)

No weather data yet

RefereeThomas Bramall
  • Cards per match 3.8
  • Penalties per match 0.16
  • Matches 87

Team strength

BurnleyNottingham Forest
61 L90 StrengthIn forecast 67
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 70
27 AttackIn forecast 68
25 DefenceIn forecast 74
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Burnley

Attack—
Defense risk—

Nottingham Forest

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

BurnleyNottingham Forest
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
0.82 xGVia Att/Def 0.92
2.34 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.71
+0.18 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
50% Scored inContext 50%
25% Clean sheetsContext 0%
7.50 ShotsContext 9.00
3.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.50
30% On target shareContext 28%
4.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.50
56% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 11%
2.67 OffsidesContext 2.00
19.50 Shots allowedContext 11.50
4.25 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.00
6.25 BlocksContext 4.00
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00
71% Save rateContext 60%
33% PossessionIn forecast 54%
294 PassesContext 470
211 Accurate passesContext 401
72% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.65 Team ratingContext 6.66
8.75 FoulsContext 10.75
9.25 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00
1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.25
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 4 and 4 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.60
1.24 xGVia Att/Def 1.08
1.51 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.62
+0.56 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
70% Scored inContext 60%
30% Clean sheetsContext 0%
10.30 ShotsContext 10.20
4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40
40% On target shareContext 33%
6.40 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
61% Box shareContext 66%
18% ConversionContext 11%
2.86 OffsidesContext 2.50
14.30 Shots allowedContext 13.00
3.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40
4.90 BlocksContext 4.14
2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.70
74% Save rateContext 61%
50% PossessionIn forecast 50%
417 PassesContext 404
340 Accurate passesContext 335
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.86
8.70 FoulsContext 10.80
12.40 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Burnley
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
Nottingham Forest
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel118 km350 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Burnley Nottingham Forest
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match6Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Sep7.1Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km118 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km350 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one74.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Burnley Confirmed XI
5-4-1
1M. Dúbravka(G)
3Q. Hartman 5M. Estève 18H. Ekdal 29J. Laurent 2K. Walker
11J. Anthony 16Florentino 24J. Cullen 17L. Tchaouna
9L. Foster
+6 more reported missing outside this XI
Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
26M. Sels(G)
35O. Zinchenko 4Morato 31N. Milenković 3N. Williams
12Douglas Luiz 8E. Anderson
14D. Ndoye 10M. Gibbs-White 29D. Bakwa
11C. Wood
+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Burnley Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Nottingham Forest Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Burnley+0.2 pp
  • Draw-0.3 pp
  • Nottingham Forest+0.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Burnley · Home 1.50points per game · 2 home games
W-D-L
1-0-1
Scored
1.00
Conceded
0.50
Nottingham Forest · Away 0.50points per game · 2 away games
W-D-L
0-1-1
Scored
0.50
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Burnley wins1 draws1 Nottingham Forest wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%
  • 19 May 2024Burnley1–2Nottingham Forest
  • 18 Sep 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Burnley

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

BurnleyNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.752.00
Match goals 2.753.00 2.85
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 50%75% 54%
Over 3.5 25%25%
Both teams scored 25%50% 58%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games44
BurnleyNottingham ForestForecast
Scored per game 1.001.00
Conceded per game 1.752.00
Match goals 2.753.00 2.85
Over 1.5 75%100%
Over 2.5 50%75% 54%
Over 3.5 25%25%
Both teams scored 25%50% 58%
Clean sheets 25%0%
Failed to score 50%50%
Games44

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

BurnleyNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won2.755.00
Corners conceded7.255.25
Match total10.0010.259.53
Over 8.550% 2/475% 3/4
Over 9.550% 2/475% 3/4
Over 10.550% 2/450% 2/4
Cards
Cards1.751.25
Opponent cards1.001.50
Match total2.752.753.60
Over 3.550% 2/425% 1/4
Over 4.525% 1/425% 1/4
BurnleyNottingham ForestLeague
Corners
Corners won3.704.70
Corners conceded5.505.40
Match total9.2010.109.53
Over 8.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 9.550% 5/1060% 6/10
Over 10.530% 3/1050% 5/10
Cards
Cards1.702.70
Opponent cards2.202.50
Match total3.905.203.60
Over 3.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 4.530% 3/1060% 6/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Thomas Bramall 87 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.67league 3.54
Red cards0.16league 0.12
Cards 5+39%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 22.5
Penalties0.16league 0.29
Home wins49%league 51%
Burnley4 with this referee
Record0-2-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • D2 Apr 24H · Wolves1–10
  • L30 Sep 23A · Newcastle0–23
  • D4 Mar 23A · Blackpool0–01
  • L12 Aug 22A · Watford0–11
Nottingham Forest7 with this referee
Record4-1-2 Cards · opp.1.9 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 1
  • L15 Feb 25A · Fulham1–20
  • W17 Feb 24H · West Ham2–04
  • D28 May 23A · Crystal Palace1–12
  • W4 Jan 23A · Southampton1–02
  • L15 Oct 22A · Wolves0–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Burnley4 games · scored 4 · conceded 7
1 0-15
1 16-30
31-45
2 2 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 2 76-90
Nottingham Forest4 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1 0-15
16-30
2 2 31-45
1 1 46-60
61-75
5 76-90
Burnley10 games · scored 18 · conceded 11
3 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 2 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 3 76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
3 0-15
2 1 16-30
2 3 31-45
2 3 46-60
2 1 61-75
8 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Premier League

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Liverpool Everton 21 Wolves Leeds 13 Burnley Nottingham Forest 11 West Ham Crystal Palace 12 Brighton Tottenham 22 Manchester United Chelsea 21 Fulham Brentford 31 Bournemouth Newcastle 00 Sunderland Aston Villa 11 Arsenal Manchester City 11