Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
AS Roma were slight favourites.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (69 vs 26). Absences weigh more on Cagliari. Cagliari had 7.9 days of rest, AS Roma 6.8 and had to travel 412 km.
Away travel412 kmRest days7.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 3
Cagliari18%
Draw24%
AS Roma57%
Cagliari19%
Draw24%
AS Roma57%
Cagliari19%
Draw25%
AS Roma56%
Cagliari14%
Draw22%
AS Roma65%
Cagliari19%
Draw23%
AS Roma58%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 0–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.26
- Matches 31
Team strength
Cagliari
AS Roma
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
69
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
31
AttackIn forecast
72
31
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariAS Roma
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.15
1.46
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.54
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.42
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.15
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
62%
Scored inContext
69%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
46%
9.23
ShotsContext
13.54
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.92
35%
On target shareContext
36%
6.08
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
60%
Box shareContext
66%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.90
13.08
Shots allowedContext
10.15
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.62
3.73
BlocksContext
2.30
3.92
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.08
73%
Save rateContext
85%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
363
PassesContext
488
291
Accurate passesContext
409
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.90
14.92
FoulsContext
14.15
14.77
Fouls sufferedContext
15.15
2.62
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.84
xGVia Att/Def
1.45
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.11
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
-0.15
60%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
8.40
ShotsContext
14.20
3.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
36%
On target shareContext
37%
5.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
62%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.13
13.10
Shots allowedContext
10.30
5.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.38
BlocksContext
2.67
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.11
67%
Save rateContext
82%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
366
PassesContext
498
292
Accurate passesContext
424
80%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.69
Team ratingContext
6.92
15.20
FoulsContext
13.50
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,320 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel412 km825 km in 14d
Schedule load21%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 21 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 412 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,320 km | 825 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
15J. Rodríguez
6S. Luperto
28G. Zappa
33A. Obert
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
29G. Borrelli
94S. Esposito
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
12K. Tsimikas
17K. Koné
4B. Cristante
19M. Çelik
7L. Pellegrini
18M. Soulé
35T. Baldanzi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.7 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- AS Roma+1.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
0.83points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.67
AS Roma · Away
2.50points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-0-1
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 9 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Verona | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Fiorentina | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 27 · 0.67 per game | 21 of 27 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Cagliari wins1 draws5 AS Roma wins
Goals per game0.33 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets17% · 67%
- 16 Mar 2025AS Roma1–0Cagliari
- 18 Aug 2024Cagliari0–0AS Roma
- 5 Feb 2024AS Roma4–0Cagliari
- 8 Oct 2023Cagliari1–4AS Roma
- 16 Jan 2022AS Roma1–0Cagliari
- 27 Oct 2021Cagliari1–2AS Roma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.15 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.46 | 0.54 | |
| Match goals | 2.46 | 1.69 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 85% | 38% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 23% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 15% | 8% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 23% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 46% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Cagliari | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.10 | 2.66 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.46 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.45 | 3.46 | |
| Match total | 8.45 | 8.92 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 55% 6/11 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 27% 3/11 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 18% 2/11 | 31% 4/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.62 | 2.23 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.08 | 2.31 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 4.54 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 69% 9/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 46% 6/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cagliari | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.11 | 5.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 9.80 | 8.85 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.90 | 4.02 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 31 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.84league 3.90
Red cards0.10league 0.13
Cards 5+29%league 38%
Fouls23.8league 25.9
Penalties0.26league 0.33
Home wins55%league 40%
Cagliari2 with this referee
Record1-0-1
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W19 Sep 25A · Lecce2–13
- L2 Mar 25A · Bologna1–22
AS Roma4 with this referee
Record3-0-1
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 1
- W23 Aug 25H · Bologna1–01
- W9 Feb 25A · Venezia1–03
- W17 Jan 25H · Genoa3–11
- L25 Aug 24H · Empoli1–20
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari13 games · scored 13 · conceded 19
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
AS Roma13 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
