Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Inter were clear favourites.
Inter were the stronger side on L90 Strength (84 vs 29). Inter usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Cagliari had 8 days of rest, Inter 6 and had to travel 693 km.
Away travel693 kmRest days8 · 6Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cagliari13%
Draw21%
Inter66%
Cagliari13%
Draw20%
Inter67%
Cagliari13%
Draw22%
Inter65%
Cagliari9%
Draw18%
Inter72%
Cagliari13%
Draw20%
Inter67%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 47%
Likeliest score 0–2
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.28
- Matches 46
Team strength
Cagliari
Inter
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
84
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
83
31
AttackIn forecast
91
31
DefenceIn forecast
73
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisInter
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariInter
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.93
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
+1.23
75%
Scored inContext
100%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
12.75
ShotsContext
17.75
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.75
35%
On target shareContext
32%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.50
64%
Box shareContext
72%
10%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
2.25
12.50
Shots allowedContext
10.75
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.50
4.67
BlocksContext
3.50
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
100%
Save rateContext
79%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
62%
352
PassesContext
513
288
Accurate passesContext
457
82%
Pass accuracyContext
89%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.00
15.25
FoulsContext
13.75
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.25
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.50
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.34
Goals minus xGContext
+0.80
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.90
3.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.30
33%
On target shareContext
38%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
62%
Box shareContext
74%
13%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.20
Shots allowedContext
14.10
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
4.00
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
75%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
341
PassesContext
485
272
Accurate passesContext
419
80%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
7.00
12.40
FoulsContext
12.20
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,566 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Inter
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel693 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Inter |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 19 Sep | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 693 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,566 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
90M. Folorunsho
14A. Deiola
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
19A. Belotti
Inter
Confirmed XI
13Josep Martínez(G)
95A. Bastoni
6S. de Vrij
25M. Akanji
30Carlos Augusto
22H. Mkhitaryan
20H. Çalhanoğlu
23N. Barella
11L. de Lima
10L. Martínez
9M. Thuram
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Inter
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.1 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Inter+0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Inter · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 3.00
- Conceded
- 4.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
0 Cagliari wins1 draws5 Inter wins
Goals per game0.67 – 2.83
Over 2.583%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 12 Apr 2025Inter3–1Cagliari
- 28 Dec 2024Cagliari0–3Inter
- 14 Apr 2024Inter2–2Cagliari
- 28 Aug 2023Cagliari0–2Inter
- 15 May 2022Cagliari1–3Inter
- 12 Dec 2021Inter4–0Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Cagliari | Inter | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 4.50 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 100% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 75% | 47% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 0% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 8.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 3.75 | |
| Match total | 8.34 | 12.25 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 100% 4/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.50 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cagliari | Inter | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.22 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 8.78 | 10.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.10 | 3.76 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 46 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.57
Red cards0.20league 0.14
Cards 5+43%league 36%
Fouls24.5league 25.8
Penalties0.28league 0.21
Home wins43%league 38%
Cagliari6 with this referee
Record0-1-5
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- L16 Mar 25A · AS Roma0–12
- L8 Dec 24A · Fiorentina0–12
- D19 Apr 24H · Juventus2–22
- L11 Nov 23A · Juventus1–21
- L6 Nov 21H · Atalanta1–21
Inter4 with this referee
Record4-0-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W22 Feb 25H · Genoa1–00
- W12 Jan 25A · Venezia1–01
- W8 Apr 24A · Udinese2–12
- W16 Feb 24H · Salernitana4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
1
0-15
16-30
2
31-45
46-60
1
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Inter4 games · scored 11 · conceded 7
1
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 13 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
4
4
31-45
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
2
76-90
Inter10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
5
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
4
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
5
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
