Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cagliari were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Cagliari. Cagliari had 7.9 days of rest, Lecce 7 and had to travel 783 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel783 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cagliari49%
Draw24%
Lecce27%
Cagliari47%
Draw25%
Lecce27%
Cagliari50%
Draw24%
Lecce26%
Cagliari42%
Draw25%
Lecce33%
Cagliari50%
Draw23%
Lecce27%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
Heat stress
29°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 13 km/h
- Humidity 70%
RefereeJ. L. Sacchi
Team strength
Cagliari
Lecce
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
31
AttackIn forecast
36
31
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariLecce
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
0.70
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
2.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.65
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.72
50%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
12.00
ShotsContext
9.50
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
21%
On target shareContext
42%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
57%
Box shareContext
51%
4%
ConversionContext
11%
—
OffsidesContext
—
21.50
Shots allowedContext
17.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.50
3.50
BlocksContext
—
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.00
78%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
32%
430
PassesContext
309
375
Accurate passesContext
233
87%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.00
FoulsContext
10.50
5.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.00
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.73
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
60%
Scored inContext
50%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.10
ShotsContext
9.40
4.11
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
28%
On target shareContext
33%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
64%
Box shareContext
62%
8%
ConversionContext
10%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.00
13.00
Shots allowedContext
12.40
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
2.70
BlocksContext
3.00
2.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
72%
Save rateContext
68%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
38%
386
PassesContext
290
321
Accurate passesContext
216
83%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.77
9.40
FoulsContext
12.10
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
WL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 56 · 3 pts vs 2.4 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2026-2027, 30 Aug | 7Serie A 2026-2027, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 783 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 5.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
14A. Deiola
2Zé Pedro
6H. Winks
4Alessandro Romano
8M. Adopo
10J. Fazzini
70D. Maldini
31Paul Mendy
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
4E. Gaspar
17Danilo Veiga
20I. Ilić
99J. Monteiro
29L. Coulibaly
79Oumar Ngom
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Lecce+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Lecce · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
2 Cagliari wins2 draws2 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.17
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 16 Feb 2026Cagliari0–2Lecce
- 19 Sep 2025Lecce1–2Cagliari
- 19 Jan 2025Cagliari4–1Lecce
- 31 Aug 2024Lecce1–0Cagliari
- 5 May 2024Cagliari1–1Lecce
- 6 Jan 2024Lecce1–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 1.00 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 50% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Cagliari | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 5.50 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 0% 0/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cagliari | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 3.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 7.70 | 9.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.00 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 2.20 | 3.80 | 3.18 |
| Over 3.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Cagliari2 games · scored 1 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
76-90
Lecce2 games · scored 2 · conceded 4
1
0-15
2
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
2
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
