Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Parma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (33 vs 26). Cagliari had 13.8 days of rest, Parma 13.9 and had to travel 627 km.
Away travel627 kmRest days13.8 · 13.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Cagliari37%
Draw29%
Parma33%
Cagliari38%
Draw27%
Parma34%
Cagliari37%
Draw29%
Parma33%
Cagliari31%
Draw29%
Parma40%
Cagliari38%
Draw27%
Parma34%
Over 2.5 41%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFrancesco Fourneau
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 37
Team strength
Cagliari
Parma
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
33
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
31
AttackIn forecast
20
31
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariParma
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.64
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
-0.23
Goals minus xGContext
-0.14
50%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.00
ShotsContext
6.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
29%
On target shareContext
39%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
51%
Box shareContext
46%
4%
ConversionContext
8%
1.00
OffsidesContext
—
11.00
Shots allowedContext
18.00
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
3.50
BlocksContext
4.50
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
100%
Save rateContext
73%
40%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
331
PassesContext
303
274
Accurate passesContext
233
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.57
13.50
FoulsContext
9.00
15.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
0.72
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.12
+0.28
Goals minus xGContext
+0.02
70%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.20
ShotsContext
7.80
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
47%
5.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.10
55%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
13%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.40
Shots allowedContext
13.90
3.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.50
BlocksContext
4.20
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
61%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
339
PassesContext
320
268
Accurate passesContext
249
79%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.70
FoulsContext
11.60
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km948 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Parma
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel627 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 13.9Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 627 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 948 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
28G. Zappa
90M. Folorunsho
16M. Prati
8M. Adopo
94S. Esposito
10G. Gaetano
19A. Belotti
Parma
Confirmed XI
31Z. Suzuki(G)
3A. Ndiaye
39A. Circati
15E. Delprato
14E. Valeri
22O. Sørensen
10Adrián Bernabé
24C. Ordoñez
18M. Løvik
9Mateo Pellegrino
32P. Cutrone
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Parma · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Cagliari wins0 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game2.50 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 9 Feb 2025Cagliari2–1Parma
- 30 Sep 2024Parma2–3Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Cagliari | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 2.00 | 2.34 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 41% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 7.00 | 8.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.50 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 1/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Cagliari | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 3.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.33 | 7.66 | 8.56 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.20 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Francesco Fourneau Italy · 37 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.43league 3.55
Red cards0.14league 0.10
Cards 5+57%league 35%
Fouls25.8league 25.3
Penalties0.27league 0.15
Home wins46%league 40%
Cagliari8 with this referee
Record3-3-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against1 · 2
- L10 May 25A · Como1–33
- W30 Mar 25H · Monza3–02
- D11 Jan 25A · AC Milan1–12
- L29 Oct 24H · Bologna0–22
- W30 Sep 24A · Parma3–22
Parma3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.3.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against2 · 1
- D8 Mar 25H · Torino2–24
- D19 Jan 25H · Venezia1–12
- L30 Sep 24H · Cagliari2–33
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari2 games · scored 1 · conceded 2
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Parma2 games · scored 1 · conceded 3
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 10 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
