Cagliari vs Torino – 17 May 2026

Serie A Gameweek 37 Sun, May 17 · 19:45 Unipol Domus, Cagliari

Cagliari 16th · 37 pts · 36 played WLWDL

2–1Full time

Torino 12th · 44 pts · 36 played WDDLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Torino were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cagliari. Cagliari had 8.2 days of rest, Torino 9 and had to travel 660 km.

Away travel660 kmRest days8.2 · 9Matches / 14d1 · 1

Cagliari37%

Draw28%

Torino35%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.24

Cagliari36%

Draw27%

Torino36%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.34

Cagliari37%

Draw29%

Torino34%

Expected goals 1.26 – 1.21

Cagliari30%

Draw28%

Torino42%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.39

Cagliari38%

Draw26%

Torino36%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.39

Over 2.5 46% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Cagliari)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyAlberto Ruben Arena

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 11

Team strength

Cagliari

Torino

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 37

33 Current StrengthIn forecast 39

31 AttackIn forecast 39

31 DefenceIn forecast 47

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cagliari

Attack—

Defense risk—

Torino

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cagliari

Torino

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.14

1.42 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.64

0.89 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.33

+0.11 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

61% Scored inContext 69%

22% Clean sheetsContext 33%

10.11 ShotsContext 11.61

3.48 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.97

32% On target shareContext 33%

6.44 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

61% Box shareContext 63%

10% ConversionContext 10%

2.35 OffsidesContext 1.90

12.53 Shots allowedContext 13.25

4.64 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.51

3.76 BlocksContext 3.89

3.55 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

72% Save rateContext 64%

46% PossessionIn forecast 44%

383 PassesContext 365

311 Accurate passesContext 292

81% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.76 Team ratingContext 6.77

13.36 FoulsContext 13.50

14.44 Fouls sufferedContext 10.33

2.14 Yellow cardsContext 1.89

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 36 and 36 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

0.90 xGVia Att/Def 1.40

1.26 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

60% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 30%

10.60 ShotsContext 12.00

3.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56

28% On target shareContext 27%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 6.90

64% Box shareContext 55%

8% ConversionContext 13%

2.75 OffsidesContext 1.75

11.20 Shots allowedContext 12.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44

3.40 BlocksContext 4.00

3.13 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.89

69% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 43%

371 PassesContext 368

301 Accurate passesContext 302

81% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.70 Team ratingContext 6.85

10.30 FoulsContext 12.50

14.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cagliari

Rest8.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Torino

Rest9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel660 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cagliari	Torino
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8.2Serie A 2025-2026, 9 May	9Serie A 2025-2026, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	660 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	7	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cagliari Confirmed XI

4-3-2-1

1E. Caprile(G)

33A. Obert 22A. Dossena 26Y. Mina 28G. Zappa

14A. Deiola 10G. Gaetano 8M. Adopo

94S. Esposito 2M. Palestra

31Paul Mendy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Torino Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

1A. Paleari(G)

77E. Ebosse 23Saúl Coco 35L. Marianucci

33Rafael Obrador 4M. Prati 6E. İlkhan 16M. Pedersen

10N. Vlašić 18G. Simeone

91D. Zapata

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cagliari Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Torino Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cagliari-0.3 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Torino+0.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Cagliari · Home 1.22points per game · 18 home games

W-D-L: 6-4-8
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 1.22

Torino · Away 0.94points per game · 18 away games

W-D-L: 4-5-9
Scored: 0.89
Conceded: 1.78

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Cagliari	Torino
Udinese	L 0–2 HD 1–1 A	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H
Bologna	D 0–0 AL 0–2 H	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A
Atalanta	W 3–2 HL 1–2 A	L 0–2 AL 0–3 H
Inter	L 0–3 AL 0–2 H	D 2–2 HL 0–5 A
Cremonese	W 1–0 HD 2–2 A	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H
Sassuolo	L 1–2 AL 1–2 H	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A
Napoli	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	L 1–2 AW 1–0 H
Pisa	L 1–3 AD 2–2 H	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H
Como	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–6 AL 1–5 H
Parma	D 1–1 AW 2–0 H	W 4–1 HL 1–2 A
Lazio	D 0–0 HL 0–2 A	W 2–0 HD 3–3 A
Lecce	L 0–2 HW 2–1 A	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A
AS Roma	L 0–2 AW 1–0 H	L 0–2 HW 1–0 A
Verona	W 4–0 HD 2–2 A	W 2–1 HW 3–0 A
Fiorentina	W 2–1 AD 1–1 H	D 2–2 AD 0–0 H
Juventus	W 1–0 HL 1–2 A	D 0–0 A
Genoa	L 0–3 AD 3–3 H	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H
AC Milan	L 0–1 H	L 2–3 AL 2–3 H
Points	34 of 105 · 0.97 per game	44 of 105 · 1.26 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Cagliari wins2 draws2 Torino wins

Goals per game1.29 – 1.29 Over 2.557% Both scored71% Clean sheets14% · 29%

27 Dec 2025Torino1–2Cagliari
24 Jan 2025Torino2–0Cagliari
20 Oct 2024Cagliari3–2Torino
26 Jan 2024Cagliari1–2Torino
21 Aug 2023Torino0–0Cagliari
27 Feb 2022Torino1–2Cagliari

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Cagliari	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.14
Conceded per game	1.42	1.64
Match goals	2.42	2.78	2.51
Over 1.5	75%	72%
Over 2.5	47%	61%	46%
Over 3.5	19%	28%
Both teams scored	47%	47%	52%
Clean sheets	22%	33%
Failed to score	39%	31%
Games	36	36

	Cagliari	Torino	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.60
Conceded per game	1.60	1.20
Match goals	2.40	2.80	2.51
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	50%	60%	46%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	60%	52%
Clean sheets	20%	30%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cagliari	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	3.79	3.76
Corners conceded	4.74	4.67
Match total	8.53	8.43	8.69
Over 8.5	47% 16/34	48% 16/33
Over 9.5	24% 8/34	36% 12/33
Over 10.5	18% 6/34	33% 11/33
Cards
Cards	2.19	1.94
Opponent cards	1.72	1.47
Match total	3.91	3.41	3.86
Over 3.5	58% 21/36	50% 18/36
Over 4.5	36% 13/36	22% 8/36

	Cagliari	Torino	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	3.78
Corners conceded	4.10	5.56
Match total	8.10	9.34	8.69
Over 8.5	40% 4/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.30	1.70
Match total	3.10	3.60	3.86
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Alberto Ruben Arena Italy · 11 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.36league 3.68

Red cards0.09league 0.19

Cards 5+9%league 34%

Fouls21.9league 24.7

Penalties0.18league 0.28

Home wins36%league 39%

Cagliari1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

D5 Oct 25A · Udinese1–12

Torino1 with this referee

Record0-1-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D2 Nov 25H · Pisa2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.