Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Udinese were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Udinese. Cagliari had 6.1 days of rest, Udinese 7 and had to travel 831 km.
Away travel831 kmRest days6.1 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari34%
Draw30%
Udinese36%
Cagliari35%
Draw27%
Udinese37%
Cagliari31%
Draw30%
Udinese38%
Cagliari28%
Draw30%
Udinese43%
Cagliari35%
Draw28%
Udinese37%
Over 2.5 38%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyFederico Dionisi
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 30
Team strength
Cagliari
Udinese
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
31
AttackIn forecast
22
31
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUdinese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariUdinese
1.03
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.23
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.31
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
1.08
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
63%
Scored inContext
74%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.77
ShotsContext
11.26
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.85
32%
On target shareContext
33%
6.18
Shots in the boxContext
6.79
61%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.32
OffsidesContext
1.96
12.63
Shots allowedContext
12.77
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.09
3.85
BlocksContext
3.60
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.77
72%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
378
PassesContext
361
307
Accurate passesContext
292
81%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.82
13.46
FoulsContext
13.37
14.49
Fouls sufferedContext
11.49
2.17
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.03
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
0.83
xGVia Att/Def
1.16
1.12
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
60%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
9.50
ShotsContext
11.40
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
28%
On target shareContext
39%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.50
63%
Box shareContext
65%
8%
ConversionContext
13%
2.63
OffsidesContext
2.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.70
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
3.60
BlocksContext
4.20
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
74%
Save rateContext
76%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
363
PassesContext
377
295
Accurate passesContext
315
81%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.50
FoulsContext
12.20
14.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.70
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Udinese
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel831 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Udinese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Serie A 2025-2026, 3 May | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 831 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,227 km | 936 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.2 | 8.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
33A. Obert
15J. Rodríguez
22A. Dossena
32Zé Pedro
2M. Palestra
90M. Folorunsho
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
31Paul Mendy
94S. Esposito
Udinese
Confirmed XI
40M. Okoye(G)
28O. Solet
31T. Kristensen
22B. Mlacic
11H. Kamara
14A. Atta
8J. Karlström
24J. Piotrowski
19K. Ehizibue
18A. Buksa
10N. Zaniolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Udinese
Scores -0.07 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+2.1 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Udinese-2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.29points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-7
- Scored
- 1.18
- Conceded
- 1.18
Udinese · Away
1.41points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-7
- Scored
- 1.47
- Conceded
- 1.53
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Udinese |
|---|---|---|
| Bologna | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 AL 0–3 H |
| Atalanta | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A | D 2–2 AW 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–3 AL 0–2 H | L 0–1 HW 2–1 A |
| Cremonese | W 1–0 HD 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Napoli | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Pisa | L 1–3 AD 2–2 H | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Como | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Parma | D 1–1 AW 2–0 H | L 0–1 HW 2–0 A |
| Lazio | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A | D 3–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Lecce | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | L 1–2 AW 3–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–2 AW 1–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Verona | W 4–0 HD 2–2 A | W 3–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 3–0 HL 1–5 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | L 0–1 HL 1–3 A |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | W 3–0 AL 0–3 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Points | 36 of 102 · 1.06 per game | 46 of 102 · 1.35 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
0 Cagliari wins3 draws4 Udinese wins
Goals per game0.57 – 2.14
Over 2.543%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets14% · 43%
- 5 Oct 2025Udinese1–1Cagliari
- 3 May 2025Cagliari1–2Udinese
- 25 Oct 2024Udinese2–0Cagliari
- 18 Feb 2024Udinese1–1Cagliari
- 17 Sep 2023Cagliari0–0Udinese
- 3 Apr 2022Udinese5–1Cagliari
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.03 | 1.23 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.31 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.54 | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 49% | 49% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 49% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 37% | 26% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Cagliari | Udinese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 2.30 | 2.21 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 40% | 38% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 4.61 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.76 | 4.55 | |
| Match total | 8.43 | 9.16 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 15/33 | 45% 15/33 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 7/33 | 39% 13/33 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 5/33 | 36% 12/33 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.23 | 1.91 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 1.74 | |
| Match total | 3.94 | 3.65 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 21/35 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 37% 13/35 | 31% 11/35 | |
| Cagliari | Udinese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.70 | 9.20 | 8.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 10% 1/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.88 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Federico Dionisi Italy · 30 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.07league 3.71
Red cards0.20league 0.18
Cards 5+43%league 35%
Fouls27.8league 24.8
Penalties0.20league 0.28
Home wins60%league 40%
Cagliari6 with this referee
Record0-2-4
Cards · opp.3.2 · 1.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D26 Oct 25A · Verona2–24
- L29 Apr 24A · Genoa0–32
- L21 Jan 24A · Frosinone1–35
- L2 Dec 23A · Lazio0–13
- D13 Feb 22A · Empoli1–12
Udinese3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D4 Jan 25A · Verona0–02
- L18 Feb 23A · Inter1–32
- W7 Nov 21H · Sassuolo3–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari35 games · scored 36 · conceded 49
2
8
0-15
3
6
16-30
8
6
31-45
6
9
46-60
9
7
61-75
8
13
76-90
Udinese35 games · scored 43 · conceded 46
4
6
0-15
7
6
16-30
8
6
31-45
9
10
46-60
8
7
61-75
7
11
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
3
0-15
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
61-75
4
76-90
Udinese10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
4
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
