Cagliari
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cagliari were slight favourites.
Cagliari were the stronger side on L90 Strength (30 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Cagliari. Cagliari had 7.1 days of rest, Verona 5 and had to travel 707 km.
Away travel707 kmRest days7.1 · 5Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cagliari54%
Draw25%
Verona20%
Cagliari52%
Draw25%
Verona23%
Cagliari53%
Draw26%
Verona21%
Cagliari47%
Draw27%
Verona26%
Cagliari57%
Draw23%
Verona20%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Cagliari)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Bonacina
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.33
- Matches 9
Team strength
Cagliari
Verona
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
33
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
31
AttackIn forecast
15
31
DefenceIn forecast
29
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisVerona
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CagliariVerona
1.09
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.82
1.41
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.68
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.48
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
68%
Scored inContext
55%
18%
Clean sheetsContext
18%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.23
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.18
34%
On target shareContext
37%
6.35
Shots in the boxContext
6.59
59%
Box shareContext
58%
11%
ConversionContext
7%
2.13
OffsidesContext
2.26
13.32
Shots allowedContext
13.32
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.95
BlocksContext
4.23
3.86
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.81
74%
Save rateContext
63%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
369
PassesContext
323
299
Accurate passesContext
240
81%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.65
14.91
FoulsContext
15.68
14.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.64
2.45
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
0.89
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.59
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.40
+0.31
Goals minus xGContext
+0.13
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
10.60
ShotsContext
10.50
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
36%
6.44
Shots in the boxContext
5.90
58%
Box shareContext
55%
11%
ConversionContext
11%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
13.70
Shots allowedContext
14.60
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
4.10
BlocksContext
4.50
3.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
73%
Save rateContext
57%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
41%
386
PassesContext
333
318
Accurate passesContext
250
82%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.66
15.00
FoulsContext
14.00
14.30
Fouls sufferedContext
8.60
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cagliari
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,072 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Verona
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel707 km167 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cagliari |
Verona |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 5Serie A 2025-2026, 26 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 707 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,072 km | 167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 9 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cagliari
Confirmed XI
1E. Caprile(G)
6S. Luperto
26Y. Mina
32Zé Pedro
33A. Obert
4L. Mazzitelli
10G. Gaetano
8M. Adopo
2M. Palestra
94S. Esposito
9S. Kılıçsoy
Verona
Confirmed XI
34S. Perilli(G)
6N. Valentini
15V. Nelsson
19T. Slotsager
3M. Frese
21A. Harroui
63R. Gagliardini
24A. Bernede
14Pol Lirola
16G. Orban
9A. Sarr
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cagliari
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Verona
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cagliari+1.6 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Verona-0.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Cagliari · Home
1.20points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-4
- Scored
- 1.10
- Conceded
- 1.30
Verona · Away
0.73points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-5
- Scored
- 0.64
- Conceded
- 1.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Cagliari | Verona |
|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Juventus | W 1–0 HL 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Genoa | L 0–3 AD 3–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Cremonese | D 2–2 A | D 0–0 AD 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 0–1 H | L 0–3 A |
| Torino | W 2–1 A | L 0–3 H |
| Pisa | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Como | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Lazio | L 0–2 A | L 0–1 HL 0–4 A |
| Sassuolo | L 1–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 H |
| Udinese | D 1–1 A | L 1–3 HD 1–1 A |
| Inter | L 0–2 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lecce | W 2–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Parma | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Napoli | L 0–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 24 of 63 · 1.14 per game | 13 of 63 · 0.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
2 Cagliari wins3 draws2 Verona wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.00
Over 2.529%
Both scored43%
Clean sheets43% · 29%
- 26 Oct 2025Verona2–2Cagliari
- 28 Apr 2025Verona0–2Cagliari
- 29 Nov 2024Cagliari1–0Verona
- 1 Apr 2024Cagliari1–1Verona
- 23 Dec 2023Verona2–0Cagliari
- 30 Apr 2022Cagliari1–2Verona
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cagliari | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.09 | 0.82 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.41 | 1.68 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.50 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 73% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 59% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 32% | |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 55% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 18% | 18% | |
| Failed to score | 32% | 45% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Cagliari | Verona | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 80% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cagliari | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.60 | 3.64 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.15 | 4.73 | |
| Match total | 8.75 | 8.37 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 10/20 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 6/20 | 36% 8/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 4/20 | 23% 5/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.45 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.95 | 1.64 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 3.91 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 41% 9/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Cagliari | Verona | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.40 | 3.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 8.90 | 8.80 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.10 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 3.00 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Bonacina 9 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.11league 3.79
Red cards0.22league 0.16
Cards 5+22%league 36%
Fouls24.3league 25.6
Penalties0.33league 0.31
Home wins33%league 38%
Cagliari3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Jan 26A · Cremonese2–22
- L30 Aug 25A · Napoli0–11
- L24 Jan 25A · Torino0–21
Verona1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D6 Apr 25A · Torino1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cagliari22 games · scored 24 · conceded 31
5
0-15
2
5
16-30
6
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
6
5
61-75
6
8
76-90
Verona22 games · scored 18 · conceded 37
1
5
0-15
7
6
16-30
4
4
31-45
1
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
1
12
76-90
Cagliari10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Verona10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
1
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
