Cambuur vs Excelsior – 7 Aug 2026

Eredivisie Gameweek 1 Fri, Aug 7 · 19:00 Cambuur Stadion, Leeuwarden

Cambuur

0–4Full time

Excelsior

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Cambuur were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Excelsior. Cambuur had ? days of rest, Excelsior 82.2 and had to travel 168 km.

Away travel168 kmRest days? · 82.2Matches / 14d0 · 0

Cambuur48%

Draw24%

Excelsior28%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.21

Cambuur49%

Draw25%

Excelsior26%

Expected goals 1.62 – 1.11

Cambuur48%

Draw24%

Excelsior28%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.21

Cambuur40%

Draw25%

Excelsior35%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.35

Cambuur48%

Draw24%

Excelsior28%

Expected goals 1.65 – 1.21

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Leeuwarden)

No weather data yet

Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout

Cards per match 3.7
Penalties per match 0.18
Matches 78

Team strength

Cambuur

Excelsior

26 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

23 Current StrengthIn forecast 21

22 AttackIn forecast 21

23 DefenceIn forecast 18

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Cambuur

Attack—

Defense risk—

Excelsior

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Cambuur

Excelsior

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

— Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def 1.62

— xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.60

— Goals minus xGContext +0.08

— Scored inContext 80%

— Clean sheetsContext 10%

— ShotsContext 14.40

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

— On target shareContext 33%

— Shots in the boxContext 9.50

— Box shareContext 64%

— ConversionContext 12%

— OffsidesContext 1.75

— Shots allowedContext 11.80

— On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.30

— BlocksContext 3.60

— Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

— Save rateContext 69%

— PossessionIn forecast 52%

— PassesContext 406

— Accurate passesContext 318

— Pass accuracyContext 78%

— Team ratingContext 6.86

— FoulsContext 10.50

— Fouls sufferedContext 8.60

— Yellow cardsContext 0.60

— Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 0 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Cambuur

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Excelsior

Rest82.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel168 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Cambuur	Excelsior
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	82.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	168 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	8	8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Cambuur Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1T. Jansen(G)

23L. Jetten 6J. Amofa 4I. Baouf 16R. Mulders

8N. Souren 10Rafik El Arguioui 14Ryan van de Pavert

11I. Hamache 9S. Vink 29I. Henstra

Excelsior Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1S. van Gassel(G)

15Simon Janssen 14J. Plug 3R. Meissen 17Nolan Martens

20L. Hartjes 10N. Naujoks 6D. van Vianen

11G. de Regt 19D. Garden 8I. Yegoian

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Cambuur Absences are shown before kick-off

Excelsior Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Cambuur+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Excelsior+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Cambuur · Home No home games yet this season.

Excelsior · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Cambuur	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.85
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Cambuur	Excelsior	Forecast
Scored per game	—	1.70
Conceded per game	—	1.50
Match goals	—	3.20	2.85
Over 1.5	—	90%
Over 2.5	—	60%	54%
Over 3.5	—	40%
Both teams scored	—	70%	57%
Clean sheets	—	10%
Failed to score	—	20%
Games	0	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Cambuur	Excelsior
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Cambuur	Excelsior
Corners
Corners won	11.00	3.89
Corners conceded	2.00	5.33
Match total	13.00	9.22
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	4.50	0.60
Opponent cards	5.50	1.70
Match total	10.00	2.30
Over 3.5	100% 2/2	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	100% 2/2	0% 0/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 78 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.51

Red cards0.19

Cards 5+32%

Fouls19.9

Penalties0.18

Home wins36%

Cambuur

No previous matches with this referee.

Excelsior3 with this referee

Record2-1-0 Cards · opp.1.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against0 · 0

W17 May 26A · Sparta Rotterdam3–20
D24 Jan 26A · Twente0–01
W13 Aug 23A · NEC Nijmegen4–32

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.