Cambuur
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cambuur47.0%fair odds 2.13
Draw25.6%fair odds 3.91
Excelsior27.4%fair odds 3.65
Expected goals1.65 – 1.21total 2.85
Likeliest score1–112.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Excelsior
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cambuur ↓ · Excelsior → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cambuur goals, columns Excelsior goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.1%8.29
- 2–19.4%10.61
- 1–08.9%11.25
- 2–07.8%12.80
- 1–26.9%14.46
- 0–06.4%15.68
- 0–16.4%15.73
- 2–25.7%17.58
- 3–15.2%19.33
- 3–04.3%23.33
Winning margin
10.6%
Cambuur by 3+
fair 9.48
14.5%
Cambuur by 2
fair 6.92
22.0%
Cambuur by 1
fair 4.54
25.6%
Draw
fair 3.91
16.0%
Excelsior by 1
fair 6.26
7.8%
Excelsior by 2
fair 12.87
3.7%
Excelsior by 3+
fair 27.23
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
16%5+
Cambuur goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
9%4+
Excelsior goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur win | 47.0% | 47.0% | +0.0 pp |
| Draw | 25.6% | 25.6% | -0.0 pp |
| Excelsior win | 27.4% | 27.4% | +0.0 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 54.3% | +0.0 pp |
| Both teams score | 57.2% | 57.2% | +0.0 pp |
| Expected goals Cambuur | 1.65 | 1.65 | +0.00 |
| Expected goals Excelsior | 1.21 | 1.21 | +0.00 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cambuur win47.0%2.13
- Draw25.6%3.91
- Excelsior win27.4%3.65
- Double chance Cambuur or draw72.6%1.38
- Double chance Cambuur or Excelsior74.4%1.34
- Double chance Excelsior or draw53.0%1.89
- Draw no bet Cambuur63.2%1.58
- Draw no bet Excelsior36.8%2.71
Goals
- Over 0.593.6%1.07
- Over 1.578.4%1.28
- Over 2.554.3%1.84
- Over 3.532.0%3.13
- Over 4.516.1%6.23
- Under 1.521.6%4.62
- Under 2.545.7%2.19
- Under 3.568.0%1.47
Both teams to score
- Yes57.2%1.75
- No42.8%2.33
- Yes and over 2.545.1%2.22
- Cambuur win and yes23.5%4.26
- Draw and yes19.2%5.21
- Excelsior win and yes14.5%6.89
Team goals
- Cambuur over 0.580.7%1.24
- Cambuur over 1.549.0%2.04
- Cambuur over 2.522.8%4.38
- Excelsior over 0.570.1%1.43
- Excelsior over 1.534.0%2.94
- Excelsior over 2.512.2%8.20
- Cambuur clean sheet29.9%3.34
- Excelsior clean sheet19.3%5.18
- Cambuur win to nil23.5%4.25
- Excelsior win to nil12.9%7.75
Handicap
- Cambuur −1.525.0%4.00
- Cambuur −2.510.6%9.48
- Excelsior +1.575.0%1.33
- Excelsior +2.589.4%1.12
- Excelsior −1.511.4%8.74
- Cambuur +1.588.6%1.13
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.