Cambuur
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (38 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. Cambuur had 6.3 days of rest, NEC Nijmegen 4.1 and had to travel 151 km.
Away travel151 kmRest days6.3 · 4.1Matches / 14d2 · 3
Cambuur28%
Draw22%
NEC Nijmegen50%
Cambuur31%
Draw26%
NEC Nijmegen43%
Cambuur26%
Draw22%
NEC Nijmegen52%
Cambuur21%
Draw20%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Cambuur28%
Draw23%
NEC Nijmegen49%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 64%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Leeuwarden)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsIngmar Oostrom
- Cards per match 3.2
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 34
Team strength
Cambuur
NEC Nijmegen
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
38
23
Current StrengthIn forecast
32
22
AttackIn forecast
37
23
DefenceIn forecast
33
6
Form indexContext
30
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CambuurNEC Nijmegen
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
3.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.80
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.38
2.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.69
+0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
80%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.80
ShotsContext
15.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
32%
On target shareContext
29%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
9.80
70%
Box shareContext
63%
10%
ConversionContext
14%
1.60
OffsidesContext
2.50
16.60
Shots allowedContext
10.20
6.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
4.40
BlocksContext
3.00
4.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.60
53%
Save rateContext
44%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
413
PassesContext
533
348
Accurate passesContext
444
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.69
10.80
FoulsContext
10.40
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
2.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
2.90
2.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.35
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
-1.30
71%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.29
ShotsContext
16.90
4.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.40
30%
On target shareContext
32%
9.86
Shots in the boxContext
10.50
67%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.86
OffsidesContext
3.29
14.14
Shots allowedContext
10.50
6.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.90
3.57
BlocksContext
2.50
3.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.30
58%
Save rateContext
59%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
446
PassesContext
478
370
Accurate passesContext
387
83%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.80
12.43
FoulsContext
11.30
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.29
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cambuur
LLLLD
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km227 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.9 for an average club · -4.5 vs expected
NEC Nijmegen
LWWLD
Rest4.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel151 km153 km in 14d
Schedule load15%Low
Form 30 · 7 pts vs 9.3 for an average club · -1.7 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cambuur |
NEC Nijmegen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 15 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.3Eredivisie 2026-2027, 6 Sep | 4.1Eredivisie 2026-2027, 8 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 151 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 227 km | 153 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.8 | 5 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cambuur
Confirmed XI
1T. Jansen(G)
28M. Costarelli
14B. van Duijl
4I. Baouf
2D. Bouah
8N. Souren
33M. Maertens
11I. Hamache
10Rafik El Arguioui
15F. Kvam
13N. Binder
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
66A. Kabar
3P. Sandler
21T. Storm
99Clement Bischoff
18D. Geiger
6D. Nejašmić
19A. Tahaui
20N. Lebreton
9T. Chery
14K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cambuur
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
NEC Nijmegen
Scores -0.08 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cambuur+1.6 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- NEC Nijmegen-1.9 pp
Home / Away this season
Cambuur · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 4.33
NEC Nijmegen · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 3.50
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen |
|---|---|---|
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Feyenoord | L 2–5 H | L 1–3 H |
| Excelsior | L 0–4 H | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.60 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 4.80 | 4.00 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 100% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 100% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 3.60 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.80 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 90% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 80% | 64% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 8.00 | 10.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 1/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 0% 0/5 | |
| Cambuur | NEC Nijmegen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.86 | 5.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.86 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.72 | 8.60 | 10.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 71% 5/7 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 4.72 | 3.50 | 2.69 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 3/7 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Ingmar Oostrom Netherlands · 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.03league 2.71
Red cards0.18league 0.06
Cards 5+29%league 15%
Fouls21.9league 20.7
Penalties0.24league 0.25
Home wins44%league 25%
CambuurNo previous matches with this referee.
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W29 Nov 25H · Sparta Rotterdam3–12
- L5 Oct 24A · NAC Breda0–11
- D28 Jan 24A · GO Ahead Eagles2–24
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cambuur5 games · scored 6 · conceded 18
2
0-15
1
5
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
4
76-90
NEC Nijmegen5 games · scored 11 · conceded 9
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
1
76-90
Cambuur7 games · scored 7 · conceded 20
2
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
4
61-75
5
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
