Cambuur
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Cambuur27.1%fair odds 3.69
Draw23.2%fair odds 4.30
NEC Nijmegen49.7%fair odds 2.01
Expected goals1.38 – 1.92total 3.30
Likeliest score1–110.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Cambuur ↓ · NEC Nijmegen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Cambuur goals, columns NEC Nijmegen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%9.71
- 1–29.4%10.65
- 0–26.8%14.68
- 2–16.7%14.83
- 0–16.6%15.19
- 2–26.5%15.46
- 1–36.0%16.66
- 1–04.6%21.83
- 0–34.4%22.96
- 0–04.2%23.70
Winning margin
4.2%
Cambuur by 3+
fair 23.64
7.8%
Cambuur by 2
fair 12.76
15.0%
Cambuur by 1
fair 6.65
23.2%
Draw
fair 4.30
21.1%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.73
15.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 6.58
13.3%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 7.51
Goal distribution
Total goals
4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
24%5+
Cambuur goals
25%0
35%1
24%2
11%3
5%4+
NEC Nijmegen goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur win | 27.1% | 27.5% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.2% | 23.6% | -0.4 pp |
| NEC Nijmegen win | 49.7% | 48.9% | +0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 64.0% | 62.7% | +1.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 64.3% | 63.4% | +0.9 pp |
| Expected goals Cambuur | 1.38 | 1.36 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.92 | 1.87 | +0.05 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Cambuur win27.1%3.69
- Draw23.2%4.30
- NEC Nijmegen win49.7%2.01
- Double chance Cambuur or draw50.3%1.99
- Double chance Cambuur or NEC Nijmegen76.8%1.30
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw72.9%1.37
- Draw no bet Cambuur35.3%2.83
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen64.7%1.55
Goals
- Over 0.595.8%1.04
- Over 1.584.6%1.18
- Over 2.564.0%1.56
- Over 3.541.9%2.39
- Over 4.523.7%4.22
- Under 1.515.4%6.50
- Under 2.536.0%2.78
- Under 3.558.1%1.72
Both teams to score
- Yes64.3%1.55
- No35.7%2.80
- Yes and over 2.554.0%1.85
- Cambuur win and yes16.6%6.01
- Draw and yes19.0%5.26
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes28.7%3.49
Team goals
- Cambuur over 0.574.8%1.34
- Cambuur over 1.540.1%2.50
- Cambuur over 2.516.1%6.20
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.585.3%1.17
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.557.2%1.75
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.530.1%3.32
- Cambuur clean sheet14.7%6.81
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet25.2%3.97
- Cambuur win to nil10.5%9.56
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil21.0%4.76
Handicap
- Cambuur −1.512.1%8.29
- Cambuur −2.54.2%23.64
- NEC Nijmegen +1.587.9%1.14
- NEC Nijmegen +2.595.8%1.04
- NEC Nijmegen −1.528.5%3.51
- Cambuur +1.571.5%1.40
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored48
Favourite won56.3%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.606
Over 2.5 called right79.2%
BTTS called right75.0%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 3 | 38.9% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 14 | 45.7% | 42.9% |
| 50–60% | 17 | 55.6% | 70.6% |
| 60–70% | 8 | 65.8% | 62.5% |
| 70–80% | 3 | 73.1% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 3 | 83.9% | 0.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 23 of 48 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6491 | 0.6516 |
| Avg chance given to result | 39.0% | 39.6% |
| Favourite won | 52.2% | 52.2% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 23 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✓Fortuna Sittard 1–5 Ajax22·22·56
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Groningen47·22·30
- ✓Twente 2–0 ADO Den Haag76·15·9
- ✗AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Willem II86·9·5
- ✓Twente 1–0 Telstar69·18·14
- ✗NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Excelsior52·22·26
- ✗Utrecht 3–3 GO Ahead Eagles44·23·33
- ✗ADO Den Haag 2–3 Fortuna Sittard40·25·35
- ✗Telstar 2–2 Cambuur52·22·26
- ✓Heerenveen 2–3 AZ Alkmaar21·21·58
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 48 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.