Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 47). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Malaga. Celta Vigo had 5.8 days of rest, Malaga 6.8 and had to travel 715 km. Weather to note: heat stress.
Away travel715 kmRest days5.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d3 · 2
Celta Vigo42%
Draw26%
Malaga32%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw25%
Malaga27%
Celta Vigo40%
Draw27%
Malaga33%
Celta Vigo35%
Draw27%
Malaga39%
Celta Vigo41%
Draw27%
Malaga32%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
Heat stress
30°CClear
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 7 km/h
- Humidity 38%
Referee · SpainCarlos Muniz Munoz
- Cards per match 4.0
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 12
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Malaga
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
41
36
AttackIn forecast
28
61
DefenceIn forecast
31
22
Form indexContext
29
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalaga
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoMalaga
0.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.25
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
0.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.07
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.20
Goals minus xGContext
-0.82
40%
Scored inContext
25%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
8.40
ShotsContext
10.50
2.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.75
29%
On target shareContext
17%
4.20
Shots in the boxContext
5.75
47%
Box shareContext
60%
5%
ConversionContext
2%
2.40
OffsidesContext
1.75
12.80
Shots allowedContext
12.75
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.20
BlocksContext
3.75
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.75
71%
Save rateContext
71%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
571
PassesContext
509
498
Accurate passesContext
446
87%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.40
FoulsContext
11.75
14.60
Fouls sufferedContext
11.50
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
0.78
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.73
70%
Scored inContext
60%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
7.70
ShotsContext
12.50
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
36%
On target shareContext
30%
4.60
Shots in the boxContext
8.40
54%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
6%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.44
14.60
Shots allowedContext
12.20
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.40
BlocksContext
3.00
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.44
76%
Save rateContext
76%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
512
PassesContext
468
441
Accurate passesContext
401
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.60
FoulsContext
11.60
14.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.20
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
DLLDD
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,065 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Form 22 · 3 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected
Malaga
LDLD
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel715 km831 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 29 · 2 pts vs 4.5 for an average club · -2.5 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Malaga |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8La Liga 2026-2027, 7 Sep | 6.8La Liga 2026-2027, 6 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 715 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,065 km | 831 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3.2 | 4.3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
3Marcos Alonso
18Yoel Lago
21S. Cáceres
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
8Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
23Hugo Álvarez
9Ferran Jutglà
16Hugo González
Malaga
Confirmed XI
1Alfonso Herrero(G)
12José Salinas
4Einar Galilea
15Ángel Recio
31Rafita
23Izan Merino
11Joaquín Muñoz
22Dani Lorenzo
18Pablo Martínez
10David Larrubia
9Chupe
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Malaga
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- Malaga-1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 2.00
Malaga · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.40 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 1.40 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 25% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 75% | |
| Games | 5 | 4 |
| Celta Vigo | Malaga | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 25% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 75% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.80 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 10.75 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.20 | 4.50 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 3/5 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Celta Vigo | Malaga | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 7.88 | 9.90 | 10.27 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 2/8 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.80 | 4.55 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Carlos Muniz Munoz Spain · 12 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.75league 4.28
Red cards0.25league 0.26
Cards 5+33%league 50%
Fouls25.9league 24.9
Penalties0.17league 0.33
Home wins33%league 50%
Celta VigoNo previous matches with this referee.
Malaga2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W18 Jan 26A · Cordoba1–02
- W12 Oct 25H · Deportivo La Coruna3–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo5 games · scored 2 · conceded 5
1
0-15
3
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Malaga4 games · scored 1 · conceded 7
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
2
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 10
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
Malaga10 games · scored 8 · conceded 10
1
1
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
46-60
3
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
