Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 54). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Osasuna. Celta Vigo had 5.1 days of rest, Osasuna 6.2 and had to travel 584 km.
Away travel584 kmRest days5.1 · 6.2Matches / 14d3 · 2
Celta Vigo46%
Draw29%
Osasuna25%
Celta Vigo49%
Draw26%
Osasuna25%
Celta Vigo45%
Draw29%
Osasuna26%
Celta Vigo39%
Draw30%
Osasuna31%
Celta Vigo47%
Draw27%
Osasuna26%
Over 2.5 40%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 36
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
63
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
36
AttackIn forecast
50
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoOsasuna
1.32
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.05
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.23
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.23
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
+0.16
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
82%
Scored inContext
64%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
10.09
ShotsContext
11.05
3.82
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
38%
On target shareContext
33%
6.27
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
60%
Box shareContext
68%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
2.65
OffsidesContext
1.92
12.05
Shots allowedContext
12.09
4.18
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.82
3.33
BlocksContext
3.26
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.55
78%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
485
PassesContext
370
416
Accurate passesContext
293
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.45
FoulsContext
12.73
11.77
Fouls sufferedContext
11.18
1.82
Yellow cardsContext
2.27
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.70
0.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.07
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+0.58
80%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
7.70
ShotsContext
12.90
3.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
47%
On target shareContext
32%
4.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
62%
Box shareContext
67%
20%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.14
12.40
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.90
BlocksContext
3.13
2.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
74%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
424
PassesContext
346
353
Accurate passesContext
268
83%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.85
11.30
FoulsContext
13.20
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
10.20
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km6,780 km in 14d
Schedule load25%Moderate
Osasuna
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel584 km634 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 25 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 6.2La Liga 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 6,780 km | 634 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 6 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
2C. Starfelt
32Javi Rodríguez
5Sergio Carreira
6I. Moriba
16Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
23Hugo Álvarez
7Borja Iglesias
8Fer López
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
22F. Boyomo
24Catena
19V. Rosier
8Iker Muñoz
14Rubén García
18Raúl Moro
10Aimar Oroz
21Víctor Muñoz
17A. Budimir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo+1.0 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Osasuna-0.7 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.27points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 1.45
- Conceded
- 1.18
Osasuna · Away
0.45points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-8
- Scored
- 0.55
- Conceded
- 1.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | L 1–3 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Valencia | W 4–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Oviedo | D 0–0 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Alaves | W 1–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 0–2 A |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Girona | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Mallorca | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 30 of 63 · 1.43 per game | 26 of 63 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings
5 Celta Vigo wins2 draws3 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.40 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets50% · 30%
- 26 Oct 2025Osasuna2–3Celta Vigo
- 21 Feb 2025Celta Vigo1–0Osasuna
- 1 Sep 2024Osasuna3–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Feb 2024Osasuna0–3Celta Vigo
- 13 Aug 2023Celta Vigo0–2Osasuna
- 6 Mar 2023Osasuna0–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.32 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.05 | 1.23 | |
| Match goals | 2.36 | 2.41 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 32% | 41% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 27% | |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 45% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 18% | 36% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 40% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.95 | 3.16 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.73 | 4.37 | |
| Match total | 8.68 | 7.53 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 10/22 | 37% 7/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 32% 7/22 | 21% 4/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 27% 6/22 | 5% 1/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.86 | 2.45 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 2.23 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.68 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 59% 13/22 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.11 | 3.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.78 | |
| Match total | 7.78 | 7.89 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 3/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 22% 2/9 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 5.20 | 4.44 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 36 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 4.16
Red cards0.28league 0.28
Cards 5+56%league 45%
Fouls25.4league 24.6
Penalties0.17league 0.37
Home wins39%league 47%
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L16 Sep 23H · Mallorca0–11
Osasuna5 with this referee
Record0-2-3
Cards · opp.2.2 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- D3 Jan 26H · Athletic Club1–13
- L15 Apr 24H · Valencia0–10
- D25 Feb 24A · Las Palmas1–11
- L4 Nov 23H · Girona2–45
- L19 Aug 23H · Athletic Club0–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo21 games · scored 27 · conceded 23
1
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
5
5
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
7
61-75
9
4
76-90
Osasuna21 games · scored 26 · conceded 27
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
9
3
31-45
6
46-60
2
9
61-75
9
5
76-90
Celta Vigo9 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
5
3
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 17 · conceded 14
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
46-60
2
6
61-75
7
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
