Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (59 vs 48). Celta Vigo had 5 days of rest, Osasuna 3 and had to travel 584 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel584 kmRest days5 · 3Matches / 14d1 · 1
Celta Vigo50%
Draw25%
Osasuna25%
Celta Vigo51%
Draw24%
Osasuna25%
Celta Vigo50%
Draw25%
Osasuna25%
Celta Vigo43%
Draw27%
Osasuna31%
Celta Vigo50%
Draw25%
Osasuna25%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
16°CLight rain
- Precipitation 0.9 mm
- Wind 9 km/h
- Humidity 84%
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 20
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Osasuna
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
48
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
36
AttackIn forecast
50
61
DefenceIn forecast
50
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Form indexContext
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In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOsasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoOsasuna
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Goals scoredVia Att/Def
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Goals concededVia Att/Def
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xGVia Att/Def
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xG allowedVia Att/Def
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Goals minus xGContext
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Scored inContext
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Clean sheetsContext
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ShotsContext
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Shots on targetVia Att/Def
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On target shareContext
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Shots in the boxContext
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Box shareContext
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ConversionContext
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OffsidesContext
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Shots allowedContext
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On target allowedVia Att/Def
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BlocksContext
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Goalkeeper savesContext
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Save rateContext
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PossessionIn forecast
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PassesContext
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Accurate passesContext
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Pass accuracyContext
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Team ratingContext
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FoulsContext
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Fouls sufferedContext
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Yellow cardsContext
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Red cardsContext
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1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
70%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
7.90
ShotsContext
12.20
3.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
42%
On target shareContext
41%
5.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
63%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
3.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
11.60
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.70
BlocksContext
3.11
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
66%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
492
PassesContext
395
424
Accurate passesContext
320
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.50
FoulsContext
12.70
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
D
Rest5 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,531 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Form 50 · 1 pts vs 1.0 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
- D22 AugA · Valencia0–01.1 xPts
Osasuna
D
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel584 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load14%Low
Form 44 · 1 pts vs 1.6 for an average club · -0.6 vs expected
- D24 AugH · Levante0–01.6 xPts
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Osasuna |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 14 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5La Liga 2026-2027, 22 Aug | 3La Liga 2026-2027, 24 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 584 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,531 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 1 | 1 / 1 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
3Marcos Alonso
29Yoel Lago
20Javi Rodríguez
22Javi Galán
6I. Moriba
8Miguel Román
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
11Pablo Durán
10Iago Aspas
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
23Abel Bretones
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
29Asier Osambela
27Íñigo Arguibide
11Kike Barja
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21J. Dubasin
9Raúl García
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Osasuna+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
No home games yet this season.
Osasuna · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings
4 Celta Vigo wins2 draws4 Osasuna wins
Goals per game1.30 – 1.10
Over 2.550%
Both scored40%
Clean sheets50% · 30%
- 6 Feb 2026Celta Vigo1–2Osasuna
- 26 Oct 2025Osasuna2–3Celta Vigo
- 21 Feb 2025Celta Vigo1–0Osasuna
- 1 Sep 2024Osasuna3–2Celta Vigo
- 4 Feb 2024Osasuna0–3Celta Vigo
- 13 Aug 2023Celta Vigo0–2Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| Match goals | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 100% | 100% | |
| Failed to score | 100% | 100% | |
| Games | 1 | 1 |
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.50 | 2.57 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.00 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 1.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 3.00 | 13.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/1 | 100% 1/1 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 3.00 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/1 | |
| Celta Vigo | Osasuna | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.63 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 5.30 | |
| Match total | 6.88 | 9.90 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 5.00 | 5.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 4.83
Red cards0.00league 0.22
Cards 5+40%league 61%
Fouls26.7league 26.3
Penalties0.30league 0.44
Home wins55%league 39%
Celta Vigo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L22 Mar 26H · Alaves3–42
Osasuna3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 2.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D12 Apr 26H · Real Betis1–13
- W24 Jan 26A · Rayo Vallecano3–12
- L31 Aug 25A · Espanyol0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Osasuna1 games · scored 0 · conceded 0
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
5
31-45
2
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 10 · conceded 15
3
2
0-15
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
