Celta Vigo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Celta Vigo were slight favourites.
Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Oviedo. Celta Vigo had 2.9 days of rest, Oviedo 7 and had to travel 266 km.
Away travel266 kmRest days2.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Celta Vigo60%
Draw25%
Oviedo16%
Celta Vigo66%
Draw21%
Oviedo14%
Celta Vigo60%
Draw25%
Oviedo15%
Celta Vigo53%
Draw27%
Oviedo20%
Celta Vigo61%
Draw23%
Oviedo16%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 45%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Vigo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Angel Ortiz Arias
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 41
Team strength
Celta Vigo
Oviedo
65
L90 StrengthIn forecast
29
54
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
36
AttackIn forecast
23
61
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisOviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Celta VigoOviedo
1.47
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.70
1.23
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.25
xGVia Att/Def
0.86
1.15
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
87%
Scored inContext
47%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
27%
10.40
ShotsContext
9.27
4.03
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.07
39%
On target shareContext
33%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
5.89
63%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
2.64
OffsidesContext
2.50
11.83
Shots allowedContext
15.03
4.21
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.83
3.46
BlocksContext
3.97
3.19
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.43
73%
Save rateContext
74%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
489
PassesContext
379
421
Accurate passesContext
309
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.82
Team ratingContext
6.76
11.43
FoulsContext
12.63
11.73
Fouls sufferedContext
11.77
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.03
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.60
ShotsContext
9.50
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
44%
On target shareContext
37%
6.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
65%
Box shareContext
63%
17%
ConversionContext
11%
2.57
OffsidesContext
2.83
11.30
Shots allowedContext
14.50
4.88
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.88
BlocksContext
4.70
3.13
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.50
64%
Save rateContext
64%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
479
PassesContext
370
417
Accurate passesContext
293
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.71
12.30
FoulsContext
12.90
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
12.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celta Vigo
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,423 km in 14d
Schedule load18%Low
Oviedo
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel266 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celta Vigo |
Oviedo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 18 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 9 Apr | 7La Liga 2025-2026, 5 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 266 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,423 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4 | 11.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celta Vigo
Confirmed XI
13I. Radu(G)
20Marcos Alonso
4J. Aidoo
14Alvaro Núñez
5Sergio Carreira
15M. Vecino
8Fer López
17Javi Rueda
19W. Swedberg
18Pablo Durán
36Andrés Antañón
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
12Dani Calvo
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
7I. Chaira
9Federico Viñas
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celta Vigo
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celta Vigo-0.3 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Oviedo+0.5 pp
Home / Away this season
Celta Vigo · Home
1.13points per game · 15 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-6
- Scored
- 1.53
- Conceded
- 1.40
Oviedo · Away
0.47points per game · 15 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-10
- Scored
- 0.93
- Conceded
- 2.27
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Celta Vigo | Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | W 3–2 AW 4–1 H | W 1–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Alaves | L 3–4 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Madrid | L 1–2 HW 2–0 A | L 0–3 H |
| Girona | W 2–1 AD 1–1 H | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A |
| Mallorca | W 2–0 HD 1–1 A | D 0–0 H |
| Espanyol | D 2–2 AL 0–1 H | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Osasuna | L 1–2 HW 3–2 A | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Getafe | D 0–0 AL 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 AD 1–1 H | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H |
| Sevilla | W 1–0 A | W 1–0 HL 0–4 A |
| Athletic Club | W 2–0 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Barcelona | L 2–4 H | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–1 A | L 2–4 AL 0–2 H |
| Atletico Madrid | D 1–1 H | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Elche | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| Villarreal | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 43 of 87 · 1.48 per game | 23 of 87 · 0.79 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
0 Celta Vigo wins1 draws0 Oviedo wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored0%
Clean sheets100% · 100%
- 20 Dec 2025Oviedo0–0Celta Vigo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celta Vigo | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.47 | 0.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.23 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.30 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 37% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 27% | |
| Failed to score | 13% | 53% | |
| Games | 30 | 30 |
| Celta Vigo | Oviedo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.49 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% | 45% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celta Vigo | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.07 | 3.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.55 | 5.79 | |
| Match total | 8.62 | 9.58 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 45% 13/29 | 62% 18/29 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 9/29 | 55% 16/29 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 7/29 | 38% 11/29 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.83 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.53 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 4.36 | 3.90 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 63% 19/30 | 53% 16/30 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 12/30 | 37% 11/30 | |
| Celta Vigo | Oviedo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.67 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 9.89 | 9.58 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 17% 1/6 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 17% 1/6 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.30 | 4.54 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias Spain · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.83league 4.28
Red cards0.27league 0.28
Cards 5+49%league 48%
Fouls23.5league 24.5
Penalties0.22league 0.36
Home wins39%league 49%
Celta Vigo5 with this referee
Record2-3-0
Cards · opp.1.4 · 1.6
Pens for · against2 · 1
Reds1
- W1 Mar 26A · Girona2–12
- D26 May 24H · Valencia2–20
- D25 Feb 24A · Cadiz2–23
- W3 Jan 24H · Real Betis2–11
- D19 Aug 23A · Real Sociedad1–11
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L25 Sep 25H · Barcelona1–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celta Vigo29 games · scored 42 · conceded 37
2
5
0-15
6
2
16-30
7
8
31-45
10
4
46-60
4
9
61-75
13
9
76-90
Oviedo29 games · scored 21 · conceded 48
1
4
0-15
2
7
16-30
7
7
31-45
4
7
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
13
76-90
Celta Vigo10 games · scored 16 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
4
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
5
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
