Celta Vigo vs Rayo Vallecano – 18 Jan 2026

La Liga Gameweek 20 Sun, Jan 18 · 17:30 Abanca-Balaídos, Vigo

Celta Vigo 7th · 29 pts · 19 played WWDWW

3–0Full time

Rayo Vallecano 12th · 22 pts · 19 played LDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celta Vigo were slight favourites.

Celta Vigo were the stronger side on L90 Strength (63 vs 51). Absences weigh more on Rayo Vallecano. Celta Vigo had 5.9 days of rest, Rayo Vallecano 7.2 and had to travel 465 km.

Away travel465 kmRest days5.9 · 7.2Matches / 14d1 · 1

Celta Vigo52%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano22%

Expected goals 1.64 – 0.99

Celta Vigo51%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano23%

Expected goals 1.68 – 1.06

Celta Vigo50%

Draw26%

Rayo Vallecano24%

Expected goals 1.59 – 1.02

Celta Vigo45%

Draw27%

Rayo Vallecano28%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.11

Celta Vigo53%

Draw25%

Rayo Vallecano22%

Expected goals 1.73 – 1.03

Over 2.5 49% Both score 51% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Vigo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainMateo Busquets Ferrer

Cards per match 5.7
Penalties per match 0.26
Matches 31

Team strength

Celta Vigo

Rayo Vallecano

63 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

54 Current StrengthIn forecast 58

36 AttackIn forecast 61

61 DefenceIn forecast 60

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celta Vigo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Rayo Vallecano

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celta Vigo

Rayo Vallecano

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.84

1.05 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.16

1.19 xGVia Att/Def 1.25

1.30 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.22

+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.41

84% Scored inContext 53%

26% Clean sheetsContext 32%

10.05 ShotsContext 13.00

3.84 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.26

38% On target shareContext 33%

6.42 Shots in the boxContext 7.32

63% Box shareContext 56%

13% ConversionContext 7%

2.50 OffsidesContext 2.56

12.21 Shots allowedContext 11.47

4.37 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.95

3.17 BlocksContext 3.37

3.56 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

79% Save rateContext 68%

49% PossessionIn forecast 55%

478 PassesContext 430

409 Accurate passesContext 357

86% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.86 Team ratingContext 6.77

11.47 FoulsContext 12.95

11.79 Fouls sufferedContext 10.95

1.74 Yellow cardsContext 2.47

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.11

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.10

1.17 xGVia Att/Def 1.15

1.55 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.93

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

80% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 30%

7.70 ShotsContext 14.60

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.70

49% On target shareContext 32%

5.20 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

65% Box shareContext 49%

20% ConversionContext 7%

2.29 OffsidesContext 2.44

12.70 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.10

3.67 BlocksContext 2.60

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.89

73% Save rateContext 59%

47% PossessionIn forecast 58%

450 PassesContext 433

378 Accurate passesContext 359

84% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.76

12.10 FoulsContext 14.10

12.00 Fouls sufferedContext 12.70

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celta Vigo

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,176 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Rayo Vallecano

Rest7.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel465 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 12 Jan	7.2La Liga 2025-2026, 11 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	465 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,176 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	4.1	5.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celta Vigo Confirmed XI

3-4-3

13I. Radu(G)

20Marcos Alonso 2C. Starfelt 32Javi Rodríguez

5Sergio Carreira 22Hugo Sotelo 6I. Moriba 3Óscar Mingueza

15Bryan Zaragoza 18Pablo Durán 23Hugo Álvarez

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Rayo Vallecano Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13A. Batalla(G)

3Pep Chavarría 32N. Mendy 24F. Lejeune 22A. Espino

15Gerard Gumbau 4Pedro Díaz 7Isi Palazón

18Álvaro García 19Jorge de Frutos 14Carlos Martín

+9 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celta Vigo Scores -0.02 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Rayo Vallecano Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.07 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Celta Vigo+2.1 pp
Draw-0.5 pp
Rayo Vallecano-1.6 pp

Home / Away this season

Celta Vigo · Home 1.10points per game · 10 home games

W-D-L: 2-5-3
Scored: 1.30
Conceded: 1.30

Rayo Vallecano · Away 1.00points per game · 10 away games

W-D-L: 3-1-6
Scored: 0.90
Conceded: 1.60

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano
Sevilla	W 1–0 A	L 0–1 H
Valencia	W 4–1 H	D 1–1 H
Oviedo	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Athletic Club	W 2–0 H	L 0–1 A
Real Madrid	W 2–0 A	D 0–0 H
Espanyol	L 0–1 H	L 0–1 A
Alaves	W 1–0 A	W 1–0 H
Barcelona	L 2–4 H	D 1–1 H
Levante	W 2–1 A	W 3–0 A
Osasuna	W 3–2 A	L 0–2 A
Real Sociedad	D 1–1 H	W 1–0 A
Atletico Madrid	D 1–1 H	L 2–3 A
Elche	L 1–2 A	L 0–4 A
Girona	D 1–1 H	W 3–1 A
Villarreal	D 1–1 H	L 0–4 A
Real Betis	D 1–1 H	D 0–0 H
Mallorca	D 1–1 A	W 2–1 H
Getafe	L 0–2 H	D 1–1 H
Points	28 of 54 · 1.56 per game	21 of 54 · 1.17 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

2 Celta Vigo wins5 draws2 Rayo Vallecano wins

Goals per game0.89 – 0.56 Over 2.533% Both scored33% Clean sheets67% · 44%

21 Sep 2025Rayo Vallecano1–1Celta Vigo
18 May 2025Celta Vigo1–2Rayo Vallecano
10 Jan 2025Rayo Vallecano2–1Celta Vigo
31 Mar 2024Celta Vigo0–0Rayo Vallecano
11 Dec 2023Rayo Vallecano0–0Celta Vigo
11 Mar 2023Celta Vigo3–0Rayo Vallecano

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	0.84
Conceded per game	1.05	1.16
Match goals	2.37	2.00	2.63
Over 1.5	79%	58%
Over 2.5	26%	32%	49%
Over 3.5	16%	21%
Both teams scored	63%	37%	51%
Clean sheets	26%	32%
Failed to score	16%	47%
Games	19	19

	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	0.50
Conceded per game	1.10	1.20
Match goals	2.60	1.70	2.63
Over 1.5	60%	50%
Over 2.5	40%	30%	49%
Over 3.5	30%	20%
Both teams scored	40%	30%	51%
Clean sheets	50%	40%
Failed to score	20%	60%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	3.68	5.84
Corners conceded	4.74	4.89
Match total	8.42	10.73	9.50
Over 8.5	42% 8/19	79% 15/19
Over 9.5	26% 5/19	58% 11/19
Over 10.5	21% 4/19	53% 10/19
Cards
Cards	1.79	2.68
Opponent cards	2.68	1.95
Match total	4.47	4.63	4.44
Over 3.5	63% 12/19	68% 13/19
Over 4.5	47% 9/19	58% 11/19

	Celta Vigo	Rayo Vallecano	League
Corners
Corners won	2.56	5.20
Corners conceded	4.33	4.50
Match total	6.89	9.70	9.50
Over 8.5	11% 1/9	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	0% 0/9	50% 5/10
Over 10.5	0% 0/9	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	1.60	3.20
Opponent cards	2.60	2.70
Match total	4.20	5.90	4.44
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	80% 8/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	80% 8/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Mateo Busquets Ferrer Spain · 31 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.35league 4.17

Red cards0.35league 0.28

Cards 5+71%league 47%

Fouls24.5league 24.6

Penalties0.26league 0.35

Home wins48%league 46%

Celta Vigo

No previous matches with this referee.

Rayo Vallecano2 with this referee

Record0-2-0 Cards · opp.3.5 · 1.5 Pens for · against0 · 2

D31 Aug 25H · Barcelona1–14
D29 Oct 23H · Real Sociedad2–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.