Celta Vigo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Celta Vigo
7th · 29 pts · 19 played
WWDWW
3–0Full time
Rayo Vallecano
12th · 22 pts · 19 played
LDLDW
Celta Vigo52.0%fair odds 1.92
Draw25.8%fair odds 3.87
Rayo Vallecano22.2%fair odds 4.51
Expected goals1.64 – 0.99total 2.63
Likeliest score1–112.3%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Rayo Vallecano
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celta Vigo ↓ · Rayo Vallecano → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celta Vigo goals, columns Rayo Vallecano goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%8.12
- 1–011.2%8.93
- 2–09.7%10.31
- 2–19.6%10.42
- 0–07.8%12.78
- 0–16.5%15.36
- 1–25.8%17.28
- 3–05.3%18.85
- 3–15.2%19.05
- 2–24.7%21.06
Winning margin
12.1%
Celta Vigo by 3+
fair 8.28
16.1%
Celta Vigo by 2
fair 6.20
23.8%
Celta Vigo by 1
fair 4.21
25.8%
Draw
fair 3.87
14.1%
Rayo Vallecano by 1
fair 7.09
5.9%
Rayo Vallecano by 2
fair 17.04
2.2%
Rayo Vallecano by 3+
fair 45.39
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
Celta Vigo goals
19%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
Rayo Vallecano goals
37%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celta Vigo win | 52.0% | 53.3% | -1.4 pp |
| Draw | 25.8% | 24.9% | +0.9 pp |
| Rayo Vallecano win | 22.2% | 21.8% | +0.4 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 48.9% | 52.2% | -3.2 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.3% | 53.5% | -2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Celta Vigo | 1.64 | 1.73 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Rayo Vallecano | 0.99 | 1.03 | -0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celta Vigo win52.0%1.92
- Draw25.8%3.87
- Rayo Vallecano win22.2%4.51
- Double chance Celta Vigo or draw77.8%1.28
- Double chance Celta Vigo or Rayo Vallecano74.2%1.35
- Double chance Rayo Vallecano or draw48.0%2.08
- Draw no bet Celta Vigo70.1%1.43
- Draw no bet Rayo Vallecano29.9%3.35
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.5%1.34
- Over 2.548.9%2.04
- Over 3.527.1%3.69
- Over 4.512.7%7.88
- Under 1.525.5%3.92
- Under 2.551.1%1.96
- Under 3.572.9%1.37
Both teams to score
- Yes51.3%1.95
- No48.7%2.05
- Yes and over 2.539.0%2.57
- Celta Vigo win and yes22.6%4.42
- Draw and yes18.0%5.55
- Rayo Vallecano win and yes10.6%9.42
Team goals
- Celta Vigo over 0.580.6%1.24
- Celta Vigo over 1.548.8%2.05
- Celta Vigo over 2.522.7%4.40
- Rayo Vallecano over 0.562.8%1.59
- Rayo Vallecano over 1.526.0%3.84
- Rayo Vallecano over 2.57.8%12.76
- Celta Vigo clean sheet37.2%2.69
- Rayo Vallecano clean sheet19.4%5.16
- Celta Vigo win to nil29.3%3.41
- Rayo Vallecano win to nil11.6%8.65
Handicap
- Celta Vigo −1.528.2%3.54
- Celta Vigo −2.512.1%8.28
- Rayo Vallecano +1.571.8%1.39
- Rayo Vallecano +2.587.9%1.14
- Rayo Vallecano −1.58.1%12.39
- Celta Vigo +1.591.9%1.09
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored196
Favourite won55.6%
Avg chance given to result41.9%
1X2 Brier0.562
Over 2.5 called right60.2%
BTTS called right54.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 32 | 37.9% | 40.6% |
| 40–50% | 84 | 44.6% | 47.6% |
| 50–60% | 39 | 54.7% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 21 | 64.4% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 18 | 74.7% | 88.9% |
| 80%+ | 2 | 81.2% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 165 of 196 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5591 | 0.5558 |
| Avg chance given to result | 42.0% | 42.6% |
| Favourite won | 57.0% | 56.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 165 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Mallorca 3–2 Athletic Club34·28·38
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- ✗Levante 1–1 Espanyol34·29·36
- ✓Rayo Vallecano 2–1 Mallorca46·27·27
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 196 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.