Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 54). Celtic had 14.1 days of rest, AS Roma 4.3 and had to travel 1,968 km.
Away travel1,968 kmRest days14.1 · 4.3Matches / 14d0 · 2
Celtic38%
Draw26%
AS Roma37%
Celtic36%
Draw27%
AS Roma37%
Celtic37%
Draw26%
AS Roma37%
Celtic30%
Draw25%
AS Roma44%
Celtic36%
Draw27%
AS Roma37%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaIstvan Kovacs
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.11
- Matches 19
Team strength
Celtic
AS Roma
54
L90 StrengthIn forecast
67
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
74
AttackIn forecast
72
50
DefenceIn forecast
75
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAS Roma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticAS Roma
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.75
-0.31
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
80%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.60
ShotsContext
14.80
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
48%
On target shareContext
35%
7.60
Shots in the boxContext
9.40
73%
Box shareContext
63%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
1.50
OffsidesContext
2.67
14.40
Shots allowedContext
8.80
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
4.25
BlocksContext
2.20
4.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
72%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
485
PassesContext
506
412
Accurate passesContext
428
85%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.87
12.40
FoulsContext
15.60
11.60
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
2.07
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.35
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
100%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.80
ShotsContext
13.30
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
34%
On target shareContext
37%
9.80
Shots in the boxContext
9.44
67%
Box shareContext
67%
15%
ConversionContext
10%
2.14
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.60
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
3.29
BlocksContext
2.78
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.78
77%
Save rateContext
87%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
567
PassesContext
488
490
Accurate passesContext
412
87%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.20
FoulsContext
13.40
9.70
Fouls sufferedContext
14.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
AS Roma
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel1,968 km824 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
AS Roma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 20 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 27 Nov | 4.3Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,968 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 824 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 1 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 41.9 | 4 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1K. Schmeichel(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
6A. Trusty
23S. Tounekti
41R. Hatate
42C. McGregor
13H. Yang
8E. Nygren
38D. Maeda
27A. Engels
AS Roma
Confirmed XI
99M. Svilar(G)
22Hermoso
5O. Ndicka
23G. Mancini
2D. Rensch
61N. Pisilli
8N. El Aynaoui
19M. Çelik
92S. El Shaarawy
18M. Soulé
11E. Ferguson
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
AS Roma
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Celtic+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- AS Roma-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
AS Roma · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | AS Roma |
|---|---|---|
| FC Midtjylland | L 1–3 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.40 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Celtic | AS Roma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.10 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 5 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 10.20 | 9.60 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.20 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 2/5 | 80% 4/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Celtic | AS Roma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.44 | 5.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.89 | 3.90 | |
| Match total | 9.33 | 9.40 | 8.97 |
| Over 8.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.60 | 4.32 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Istvan Kovacs Romania · 19 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 4.13
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+47%league 42%
Fouls26.1league 24.7
Penalties0.11league 0.36
Home wins63%league 51%
CelticNo previous matches with this referee.
AS RomaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Celtic5 games · scored 7 · conceded 8
2
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
AS Roma5 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
2
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
3
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 11
3
3
0-15
3
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
76-90
AS Roma10 games · scored 13 · conceded 8
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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