Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Mon, Aug 3 · 19:30
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel104 kmRest days158 · ?Matches / 14d0 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Dundee—%
Weather (Glasgow)
No weather data yet
Referee · ScotlandMatthew MacDermid
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.27
- Matches 15
Team strength
Celtic
Dundee
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
13
74
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
13
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDundee
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticDundee
—
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals concededVia Att/Def
—
—
xGVia Att/Def
—
—
xG allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
Goals minus xGContext
—
—
Scored inContext
—
—
Clean sheetsContext
—
—
ShotsContext
—
—
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
—
—
On target shareContext
—
—
Shots in the boxContext
—
—
Box shareContext
—
—
ConversionContext
—
—
OffsidesContext
—
—
Shots allowedContext
—
—
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
—
BlocksContext
—
—
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
—
Save rateContext
—
—
PossessionIn forecast
—
—
PassesContext
—
—
Accurate passesContext
—
—
Pass accuracyContext
—
—
Team ratingContext
—
—
FoulsContext
—
—
Fouls sufferedContext
—
—
Yellow cardsContext
—
—
Red cardsContext
—
2.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.71
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.86
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.56
90%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
13.90
ShotsContext
8.80
4.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
35%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
6.10
57%
Box shareContext
69%
16%
ConversionContext
17%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.60
Shots allowedContext
15.00
2.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.80
2.78
BlocksContext
4.20
2.11
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
68%
Save rateContext
75%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
529
PassesContext
349
449
Accurate passesContext
261
85%
Pass accuracyContext
75%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.82
12.50
FoulsContext
9.00
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
2.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
Rest158 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Dundee
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel104 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Dundee |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 158UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout play-offs, 26 Feb | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 104 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 0 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.8 | 121.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Confirmed XI
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
6A. Trusty
20C. Carter-Vickers
2A. Johnston
27A. Engels
42C. McGregor
13H. Yang
8E. Nygren
11Camilo Duran
9K. Høgh
Dundee
Confirmed XI
1O. Goodman(G)
3I. Odutayo
5O. Bevan
4R. Astley
7D. Wright
18C. Reilly
8R. Finnigan
48E. Hamilton
27Joe Bevan
15S. Murray
19J. Westley
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Absences are shown before kick-off
Dundee
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
No home games yet this season.
Dundee · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
7 Celtic wins1 draws1 Dundee wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.78
Over 2.567%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets56% · 11%
- 5 Apr 2026Dundee1–2Celtic
- 3 Dec 2025Celtic1–0Dundee
- 19 Oct 2025Dundee2–0Celtic
- 5 Feb 2025Celtic6–0Dundee
- 14 Jan 2025Dundee3–3Celtic
- 30 Oct 2024Celtic2–0Dundee
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Dundee | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | — | — | |
| Conceded per game | — | — | |
| Match goals | — | — | |
| Over 1.5 | — | — | |
| Over 2.5 | — | — | |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Both teams scored | — | — | |
| Clean sheets | — | — | |
| Failed to score | — | — | |
| Games | 0 | 0 |
| Celtic | Dundee | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | — | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | — | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | — | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | — | |
| Failed to score | 20% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Dundee | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | — | — | |
| Corners conceded | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 11.80 |
| Over 8.5 | — | — | |
| Over 9.5 | — | — | |
| Over 10.5 | — | — | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | — | — | |
| Opponent cards | — | — | |
| Match total | — | — | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | — | — | |
| Over 4.5 | — | — | |
| Celtic | Dundee | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.78 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.45 | 7.90 | 11.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 10% 1/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matthew MacDermid Scotland · 15 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.73league 4.20
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+40%league 20%
Fouls23.4league 27.8
Penalties0.27league 0.60
Home wins33%league 40%
Celtic2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L22 Feb 26H · Hibernian1–23
- L19 Oct 25A · Dundee0–22
Dundee4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L26 Apr 26A · Dundee Utd0–30
- L9 Nov 25H · Rangers0–30
- W19 Oct 25H · Celtic2–02
- L27 Sep 25A · ST Mirren0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
CelticDundeeCeltic10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Dundee10 games · scored 15 · conceded 16
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
4
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.