UEFA Europa League Knockout round play-offs Thu, Feb 26 2026 · 17:45 Stuttgart Arena, Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
First leg4–1 0–1 Full time · HT 0–1 xG 1.86 – 0.30
Celtic
  • 1’ L. McCowan
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Match story · our forecast vs the result iModel is our forecast, published before the match and locked at kick-off: expected goals for each side and the probability of every outcome.

xG after the match measures the quality of the chances each side actually created. It is known only after the final whistle, so it is not a forecast.

McCowan goal decides it for Celtic

VfB Stuttgart entered as clear favourites, but Celtic won 1–0 through a McCowan goal. Celtic won despite the lower xG; VfB Stuttgart created the better chances (1.86 vs 0.30). On the chances created, VfB Stuttgart deserved more: 2.5 expected points against the 0 points they took.

VfB Stuttgart62%
Draw20%
Celtic ✓18%

Model vs reality

VfB Stuttgart goals
0
Model 2.38 · xG 1.86
Celtic goals
1
Model 1.23 · xG 0.30
Total goals
1
Model 3.61 · xG 2.16
Score 0–1
3%
Most likely 2–1 (9%)
Over 2.5
No
Model 70%
Both scored
No
Model 65%
Match facts
★ Player of the matchM. SaracchiCeltic
8.3
  • RefereeIrfan Peljto
  • VenueStuttgart Arena
  • Table before kick-offVfB Stuttgart 1st · Celtic 15th

Timeline

  1. L. McCowan 0–1Assist C. Adamu
    1’
  2. C. DonovanYellow card · Holding
    45’
  3. Half time · 0–1
  4. ⇄ C. FührichFor J. Leweling
    46’
  5. ⇄ T. ČvančaraFor C. Adamu
    55’
  6. ⇄ A. RalstonFor C. Donovan
    56’
  7. ⇄ E. DemirovićFor Tiago Tomás
    64’
  8. ⇄ A. StillerFor Chema Andrés
    64’
  9. ⇄ E. NygrenFor H. Yang
    68’
  10. ⇄ S. TounektiFor L. McCowan
    68’
  11. ⇄ R. HendriksFor L. Jaquez
    72’
  12. VAR D. UndavGoal Disallowed - offside
    76’
  13. ⇄ K. ỊheanachọFor R. Hatate
    78’
  14. ⇄ B. El KhannoussFor B. Bouanani
    85’
  15. Full time · 0–1

Team stats

VfB Stuttgart22 shots · 13 in box, 9 outside
Celtic3 shots · 2 in box, 1 outside
VfB StuttgartCeltic
66% Possession 34%
1.86 Expected goals (xG) 0.30
2.47 Expected points (xPts) 0.35
22 Shots 3
8 Shots on target 2
5 Shots off target 1
9 Blocked shots 0
13 Shots inside the box 2
9 Shots outside the box 1
582 Passes 300
87% Pass accuracy 78%
12 Corners 7
1 Goalkeeper saves 6
5 Fouls 12
5 Offsides 2
0 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
6.94 Team rating 7.19

Line-ups

VfB Stuttgart 4-4-1-1

336.7 A. Nübel(G)
77.6 M. Mittelstädt 147.2 L. Jaquez ↓72’ 296.3 Finn Jeltsch 47.9 J. Vagnoman
186.3 J. Leweling ↓46’ 306.9 Chema Andrés ↓64’ 166.6 A. Karazor 276.9 B. Bouanani ↓85’
267.3 D. Undav
86.3 Tiago Tomás ↓64’
  • 33A. Nübel (G)6.7
  • 7M. Mittelstädt7.6
  • 14L. Jaquez↓72’7.2
  • 29Finn Jeltsch6.3
  • 4J. Vagnoman7.9
  • 18J. Leweling↓46’6.3
  • 30Chema Andrés↓64’6.9
  • 16A. Karazor6.6
  • 27B. Bouanani↓85’6.9
  • 26D. Undav7.3
  • 8Tiago Tomás↓64’6.3

Substitutes used

  • 10C. Führich↑46’7.2
  • 6A. Stiller↑64’7.0
  • 9E. Demirović↑64’6.5
  • 3R. Hendriks↑72’6.2
  • 11B. El Khannouss↑85’

Unused: F. Bredlow, Florian Hellstern, A. Al Dakhil, L. Assignon, N. Nartey, M. Catovic

Celtic 4-2-3-1

127.2 V. Sinisalo(G)
368.3★ M. Saracchi 67.6 A. Trusty 478.3 D. Murray 516.7 C. Donovan ↓56’
416.3 R. Hatate ↓78’ 426.9 C. McGregor
385.6 D. Maeda 147.9 L. McCowan ↓68’ 137.2 H. Yang ↓68’
97.3 C. Adamu A↓55’
  • 12V. Sinisalo (G)7.2
  • 36M. Saracchi ★8.3
  • 6A. Trusty7.6
  • 47D. Murray8.3
  • 51C. Donovan↓56’6.7
  • 41R. Hatate↓78’6.3
  • 42C. McGregor6.9
  • 38D. Maeda5.6
  • 14L. McCowan↓68’7.9
  • 13H. Yang↓68’7.2
  • 9C. AdamuA↓55’7.3

Substitutes used

  • 56A. Ralston↑56’7.6
  • 11T. Čvančara↑55’7.2
  • 23S. Tounekti↑68’6.3
  • 8E. Nygren↑68’6.5
  • 17K. Ịheanachọ↑78’6.7

Unused: K. Schmeichel, L. Scales, K. Tierney, Paulo Bernardo, J. Forrest, Sean Mcardle, Thomas Hatton

Player stats

Top rated
M. SaracchiCeltic8.3
2nd
D. MurrayCeltic8.3
3rd
J. VagnomanVfB Stuttgart7.9

VfB Stuttgart

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
A. Nübel G 90 0 0 0 sv 0 78% 41 0 0 0/0 0/1 6.7
M. Mittelstädt D 90 0 0 0 (0) 2 86% 65 5 0 1/1 0/1 7.6
L. Jaquez D 72 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 61 1 3 0/0 1/2 7.2
Finn Jeltsch D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 72 1 2 1/1 1/0 6.3
J. Vagnoman D 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 89% 36 0 0 2/2 1/0 7.9
J. Leweling F 46 0 0 1 (1) 0 65% 23 0 0 2/3 0/2 6.3
Chema Andrés M 64 0 0 0 (0) 4 82% 39 1 0 0/0 0/0 6.9
A. Karazor M 90 0 0 1 (0) 2 87% 54 0 2 0/0 1/2 6.6
B. Bouanani M 85 0 0 4 (3) 0 75% 16 0 0 1/3 0/0 6.9
D. Undav F 90 0 0 2 (2) 3 90% 41 0 1 1/2 0/0 7.3
Tiago Tomás F 64 0 0 1 (0) 0 77% 22 0 0 1/2 0/1 6.3
C. Führich M 44 0 0 2 (1) 3 95% 37 0 0 1/1 0/0 7.2
A. Stiller M 26 0 0 0 (0) 1 94% 31 2 1 0/0 0/0 7.0
E. Demirović F 26 0 0 0 (0) 0 71% 7 0 0 0/1 0/1 6.5
R. Hendriks D 18 0 0 1 (1) 0 100% 8 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.2
B. El Khannouss M 5 0 0 0 (0) 0 90% 10 0 0 0/0 1/0 —

Celtic

PlayerMinGAShotsKPPassTklIntDrbFoulsRating
V. Sinisalo G 90 0 0 6 sv 0 62% 29 0 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
M. Saracchi D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 74% 35 2 1 0/0 0/0 8.3
A. Trusty D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 95% 38 2 1 0/0 1/0 7.6
D. Murray D 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 86% 29 2 2 0/0 1/0 8.3
C. Donovan M 56 0 0 0 (0) 0 54% 13 1 1 0/0 1/0 6.7
R. Hatate M 78 0 0 1 (0) 0 86% 28 0 1 0/0 1/0 6.3
C. McGregor M 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 79% 38 0 0 1/1 1/0 6.9
D. Maeda F 90 0 0 0 (0) 0 40% 5 2 2 0/1 1/0 5.6
L. McCowan M 68 1 0 1 (1) 0 88% 24 2 1 2/2 0/1 7.9
H. Yang F 68 0 0 0 (0) 0 89% 18 3 0 0/2 1/0 7.2
C. Adamu F 55 0 1 0 (0) 1 60% 10 0 0 2/2 4/2 7.3
A. Ralston D 34 0 0 0 (0) 0 50% 10 1 0 0/0 0/1 7.6
T. Čvančara F 35 0 0 0 (0) 0 44% 9 1 0 0/0 0/0 7.2
S. Tounekti F 22 0 0 1 (1) 0 100% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.3
E. Nygren F 22 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 4 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.5
K. Ịheanachọ F 12 0 0 0 (0) 0 100% 1 0 0 0/0 0/0 6.7

Match data from eScored. Ratings are the data provider's 0–10 match ratings; 7.2 and above is a strong game, 8+ is rare.