Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Wed, Oct 28 · 19:45
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
Celtic are clear favourites.
Celtic are the stronger side on L90 Strength (52 vs 16). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Celtic. Celtic have 3.3 days of rest, Dundee Utd ? and have to travel 104 km. Conditions look neutral.
Away travel104 kmRest days3.3 · ?Matches / 14d4 · 0
Celtic77%
Draw14%
Dundee Utd9%
Celtic69%
Draw19%
Dundee Utd12%
Celtic77%
Draw14%
Dundee Utd9%
Celtic70%
Draw17%
Dundee Utd13%
Celtic80%
Draw13%
Dundee Utd8%
Over 2.5 77%
Both score 61%
Likeliest score 3–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 39 minutes ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Glasgow)
8°CDrizzle
- Precipitation 58%
- Wind 22 km/h
- Humidity 93%
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and Dundee Utd. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Celtic
Dundee Utd
52
L90 StrengthIn forecast
16
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
16
74
AttackIn forecast
16
50
DefenceIn forecast
18
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisDundee Utd
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticDundee Utd
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.52
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.30
89%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
20.33
ShotsContext
15.78
9.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.25
45%
On target shareContext
35%
15.11
Shots in the boxContext
10.44
75%
Box shareContext
65%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.78
11.78
Shots allowedContext
14.89
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.38
3.56
BlocksContext
5.56
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.88
83%
Save rateContext
72%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
604
PassesContext
419
533
Accurate passesContext
334
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.95
10.78
FoulsContext
12.56
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.89
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
2.56
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.11
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.27
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
-0.21
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.00
ShotsContext
14.80
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.89
45%
On target shareContext
36%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
9.70
73%
Box shareContext
63%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.80
16.50
Shots allowedContext
14.40
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.56
5.20
BlocksContext
5.10
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.11
66%
Save rateContext
74%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
587
PassesContext
425
516
Accurate passesContext
339
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.70
FoulsContext
12.30
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km4,014 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Dundee Utd
Rest—since last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel104 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Dundee Utd |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | High · 53 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | Yes | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 3.3Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 25 Oct | — |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 104 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,014 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 4 / 5 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 63 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Dundee Utd
Last XI · not confirmed
1J. Walton(G)
19K. Ciubotaru
18M. Forbes
3B. Esselink
23J. Rawlins
14Z. Iqbal
16L. Cameron
10D. Tait
77D. Bennie
93I. Metsoko
21J. Randall
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
No reported absences
Dundee Utd
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Celtic+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Dundee Utd+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Dundee Utd · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 8 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Dundee Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | W 7–1 H | L 0–4 A |
| Motherwell | W 2–0 A | L 0–3 A |
| Rangers | L 0–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| ST Johnstone | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | W 3–0 A |
| Falkirk | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Kilmarnock | W 5–1 A | W 4–0 A |
| Dundee | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Points | 21 of 24 · 2.63 per game | 9 of 24 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
4 Celtic wins1 draws2 Dundee Utd wins
Goals per game2.14 – 0.57
Over 2.557%
Both scored14%
Clean sheets71% · 29%
- 22 Mar 2026Dundee Utd2–0Celtic
- 10 Jan 2026Celtic4–0Dundee Utd
- 17 Dec 2025Dundee Utd2–1Celtic
- 26 Apr 2025Dundee Utd0–5Celtic
- 15 Feb 2025Celtic3–0Dundee Utd
- 8 Jan 2025Celtic2–0Dundee Utd
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Dundee Utd | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | — | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | — | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | — | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 44% | — | |
| Failed to score | 11% | — | |
| Games | 9 | 0 |
| Celtic | Dundee Utd | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | — | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | — | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | — | 4.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | — | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | — | 77% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | — | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — | 61% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | — | |
| Failed to score | 10% | — | |
| Games | 10 | 0 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Dundee Utd | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 6.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 12.78 | 12.00 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.22 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 4.89 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Celtic | Dundee Utd | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.10 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 12.00 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 4.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Dundee Utd9 games · scored 11 · conceded 12
3
3
0-15
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
61-75
3
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Dundee Utd10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
3
3
0-15
1
2
16-30
5
1
31-45
3
46-60
4
61-75
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.