Celtic
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Wed, Oct 28 · 19:45
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Celtic77.5%fair odds 1.29
Draw13.5%fair odds 7.39
Dundee Utd9.0%fair odds 11.11
Expected goals3.03 – 1.01total 4.03
Likeliest score3–18.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Dundee Utd
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Celtic ↓ · Dundee Utd → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 3.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Celtic goals, columns Dundee Utd goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 3–18.2%12.13
- 3–08.2%12.20
- 2–18.2%12.24
- 2–08.1%12.32
- 4–16.2%16.02
- 4–06.2%16.12
- 1–15.7%17.60
- 1–05.1%19.69
- 3–24.1%24.12
- 2–24.1%24.35
Winning margin
38.6%
Celtic by 3+
fair 2.59
20.2%
Celtic by 2
fair 4.94
18.6%
Celtic by 1
fair 5.37
13.5%
Draw
fair 7.39
6.0%
Dundee Utd by 1
fair 16.68
2.2%
Dundee Utd by 2
fair 44.81
0.8%
Dundee Utd by 3+
fair 128.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
2%0
7%1
15%2
19%3
20%4
38%5+
Celtic goals
5%0
15%1
22%2
22%3
36%4+
Dundee Utd goals
37%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic win | 77.5% | 79.8% | -2.4 pp |
| Draw | 13.5% | 12.5% | +1.0 pp |
| Dundee Utd win | 9.0% | 7.7% | +1.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 76.7% | 77.0% | -0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 60.6% | 58.4% | +2.2 pp |
| Expected goals Celtic | 3.03 | 3.12 | -0.09 |
| Expected goals Dundee Utd | 1.01 | 0.94 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Celtic win77.5%1.29
- Draw13.5%7.39
- Dundee Utd win9.0%11.11
- Double chance Celtic or draw91.0%1.10
- Double chance Celtic or Dundee Utd86.5%1.16
- Double chance Dundee Utd or draw22.5%4.44
- Draw no bet Celtic89.6%1.12
- Draw no bet Dundee Utd10.4%9.61
Goals
- Over 0.597.9%1.02
- Over 1.591.4%1.09
- Over 2.576.7%1.30
- Over 3.557.3%1.75
- Over 4.537.8%2.65
- Under 1.58.6%11.59
- Under 2.523.3%4.29
- Under 3.542.7%2.34
Both teams to score
- Yes60.6%1.65
- No39.4%2.54
- Yes and over 2.555.0%1.82
- Celtic win and yes42.9%2.33
- Draw and yes11.5%8.71
- Dundee Utd win and yes6.2%16.09
Team goals
- Celtic over 0.595.2%1.05
- Celtic over 1.580.5%1.24
- Celtic over 2.558.3%1.72
- Dundee Utd over 0.563.4%1.58
- Dundee Utd over 1.526.6%3.75
- Dundee Utd over 2.58.1%12.29
- Celtic clean sheet36.6%2.73
- Dundee Utd clean sheet4.8%20.65
- Celtic win to nil34.5%2.90
- Dundee Utd win to nil2.8%35.90
Handicap
- Celtic −1.558.8%1.70
- Celtic −2.538.6%2.59
- Dundee Utd +1.541.2%2.43
- Dundee Utd +2.561.4%1.63
- Dundee Utd −1.53.0%33.24
- Celtic +1.597.0%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
No finished matches with a forecast in this competition yet.