Celtic
Attack—
Defense risk—
Scottish Premiership 2026-2027
Knockout phase Sun, Nov 8 · 16:00
Celtic Park, Glasgow
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel32 kmRest days2.8 · 91.1Matches / 14d3 · 0
Real contextStrength only
Celtic—%
Draw—%
Kilmarnock—%
Weather (Glasgow)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Celtic and Kilmarnock. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Insight
Kilmarnock
−0.94
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.10xG against2.04
Attack
-
Insight
Celtic
+1.12
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.44xG against1.32
-
Trend
Celtic
2.0
Goals scored per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Celtic
60%
Both teams scored
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
-
Insight
Celtic
3
Clean sheets
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Clean sheet -
Alert
Celtic
1.8
Goals conceded away per match
Last 6 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Celtic
1.6
Goals conceded per match
Last 10 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Kilmarnock
−0.94
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.10xG against2.04
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
CelticKilmarnock
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
52
Current StrengthIn forecast
14
74
AttackIn forecast
17
50
DefenceIn forecast
16
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKilmarnock
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CelticKilmarnock
2.56
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
0.56
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.22
3.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.01
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.23
-0.45
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
89%
Scored inContext
67%
44%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
20.33
ShotsContext
10.89
9.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
45%
On target shareContext
40%
15.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.86
75%
Box shareContext
73%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.40
11.78
Shots allowedContext
18.11
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.89
3.56
BlocksContext
5.67
3.22
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.38
83%
Save rateContext
67%
58%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
604
PassesContext
393
533
Accurate passesContext
307
88%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.29
Team ratingContext
6.76
10.78
FoulsContext
11.78
9.89
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.44
Yellow cardsContext
1.78
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
2.44
xGVia Att/Def
1.10
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
-0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
90%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
17.00
ShotsContext
10.90
7.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
45%
On target shareContext
39%
12.20
Shots in the boxContext
8.63
73%
Box shareContext
72%
12%
ConversionContext
13%
1.44
OffsidesContext
1.50
16.50
Shots allowedContext
16.90
4.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.40
5.20
BlocksContext
5.30
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
66%
Save rateContext
68%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
587
PassesContext
402
516
Accurate passesContext
320
88%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.70
FoulsContext
11.60
11.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Celtic
LL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km66 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Kilmarnock
Rest91.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel32 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Celtic |
Kilmarnock |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 5 Nov | 91.1Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 9 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 32 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 66 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 7 | 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 145.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Celtic
Last XI · not confirmed
1V. Sinisalo(G)
63K. Tierney
5L. Scales
47D. Murray
51C. Donovan
22M. Baur
42C. McGregor
19C. Osmand
8E. Nygren
23H. Hassan
11Camilo Duran
Kilmarnock
Last XI · not confirmed
12C. Ferrie(G)
21M. Schjønning-Larsen
14George Stanger
4C. McCarthy
3M. Kamara
18T. Lowery
49B. Rice
11G. Kiltie
10T. John-Jules
8E. Ring
9J. Hugill
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Celtic
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Kilmarnock
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Celtic · Home
2.40points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-1
- Scored
- 2.60
- Conceded
- 0.60
Kilmarnock · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 6 this season
| Opponent | Celtic | Kilmarnock |
|---|---|---|
| Heart Of Midlothian | W 7–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Motherwell | W 2–0 A | W 3–2 H |
| Rangers | L 0–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| ST Johnstone | W 1–0 A | L 3–4 A |
| ST Mirren | W 2–1 A | L 0–1 H |
| Aberdeen | W 3–0 H | D 0–0 A |
| Points | 15 of 18 · 2.50 per game | 5 of 18 · 0.83 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
8 Celtic wins1 draws1 Kilmarnock wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.90
Over 2.580%
Both scored70%
Clean sheets30% · 0%
- 9 Aug 2026Kilmarnock1–5Celtic
- 15 Feb 2026Kilmarnock2–3Celtic
- 9 Nov 2025Celtic4–0Kilmarnock
- 14 Sep 2025Kilmarnock1–2Celtic
- 12 Apr 2025Celtic5–1Kilmarnock
- 10 Nov 2024Kilmarnock0–2Celtic
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Celtic | Kilmarnock | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.56 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.56 | 5.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.11 | 6.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 44% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | |
| Games | 9 | 1 |
| Celtic | Kilmarnock | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 5.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.60 | 6.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 100% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% | |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 1 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Celtic | Kilmarnock | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 9.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.78 | 6.56 | |
| Match total | 12.78 | 11.23 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 9/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 78% 7/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.44 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.67 | |
| Match total | 3.44 | 3.67 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Celtic | Kilmarnock | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 8.70 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 13.30 | 10.80 | 11.42 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 80% 8/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 3.60 | 3.72 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Celtic9 games · scored 23 · conceded 5
6
0-15
1
1
16-30
7
2
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
76-90
Kilmarnock9 games · scored 10 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
Celtic10 games · scored 20 · conceded 16
5
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
6
5
31-45
4
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
1
3
76-90
Kilmarnock10 games · scored 14 · conceded 21
1
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
5
31-45
6
3
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.