Celtic vs Besiktas – 5 Nov 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 5 · 20:00 Celtic Park, Glasgow

Celtic 33rd · 0 pts · 2 played LL

VS— Compare

Besiktas 4th · 6 pts · 2 played WW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Celtic are slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Celtic. Celtic have 5.2 days of rest, Besiktas 4.2 and have to travel 2,911 km.

Away travel2,911 kmRest days5.2 · 4.2Matches / 14d3 · 2

Celtic53%

Draw20%

Besiktas26%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.62

Celtic45%

Draw27%

Besiktas29%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.18

Celtic53%

Draw20%

Besiktas26%

Expected goals 2.34 – 1.62

Celtic44%

Draw22%

Besiktas34%

Expected goals 2.08 – 1.81

Celtic53%

Draw21%

Besiktas26%

Expected goals 2.17 – 1.50

Over 2.5 75% Both score 73% Likeliest score 2–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 3 hours ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Glasgow)

Forecast from 21 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Celtic

Besiktas

52 L90 StrengthIn forecast 50

52 Current StrengthIn forecast 50

74 AttackIn forecast 60

50 DefenceIn forecast 48

— Form indexContext 62

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Celtic

Attack—

Defense risk—

Besiktas

Attack−15%

Defense risk+59%

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Celtic

Besiktas

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 3.50

3.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

100% Scored inContext 100%

0% Clean sheetsContext 0%

15.00 ShotsContext 18.50

5.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00

37% On target shareContext 32%

11.00 Shots in the boxContext 14.50

76% Box shareContext 78%

7% ConversionContext 19%

1.00 OffsidesContext —

20.00 Shots allowedContext 13.50

6.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

5.50 BlocksContext 3.50

3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 1.50

46% Save rateContext 50%

55% PossessionIn forecast 51%

556 PassesContext 473

496 Accurate passesContext 395

89% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.36 Team ratingContext 7.05

12.50 FoulsContext 9.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00

0.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 2 and 2 games

2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.20

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

2.44 xGVia Att/Def 2.06

1.32 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.44 Goals minus xGContext +0.14

90% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 10%

17.00 ShotsContext 16.75

7.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.25

45% On target shareContext 37%

12.20 Shots in the boxContext 10.88

73% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 14%

1.44 OffsidesContext 3.00

16.50 Shots allowedContext 11.25

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.50

5.20 BlocksContext 3.38

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

66% Save rateContext 64%

56% PossessionIn forecast 59%

587 PassesContext 481

516 Accurate passesContext 410

88% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.92 Team ratingContext 6.97

11.70 FoulsContext 11.44

11.30 Fouls sufferedContext 15.22

1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.20

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Celtic LL

Rest5.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km200 km in 14d

Schedule load15%Low

Form 32 · 0 pts vs 2.1 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected

L15 OctA · Benfica1–40.5 xPts
L17 SepH · Ferencvarosi TC1–31.5 xPts

Besiktas WLWWL

Rest4.2 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel2,911 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 62 · 9 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.0 vs expected

L19 OctA · Trabzonspor0–21.5 xPts
W15 OctA · 1899 Hoffenheim3–21.3 xPts
W11 OctH · Kocaelispor2–12.2 xPts
L20 SepA · Amed2–31.4 xPts
W17 SepH · Marseille4–11.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Celtic	Besiktas
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 15	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.2Scottish Premiership 2026-2027, 31 Oct	4.2Süper Lig 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	2,911 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	200 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 7	1 / 2 / 6
Next matchdays after this one	2.8	2.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Celtic Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Heart Of Midlothian (H) 7–1, 18 Oct

1V. Sinisalo(G)

63K. Tierney 5L. Scales 47D. Murray 51C. Donovan

22M. Baur 42C. McGregor

19C. Osmand 8E. Nygren 23H. Hassan

11Camilo Duran

Besiktas Last XI · not confirmed

4-1-4-1 · vs Trabzonspor (A) 0–2, 19 Oct

1A. Nübel(G)

33R. Yılmaz 53E. Topçu 12E. Agbadou 62A. Murillo

6S. Özcan

19L. Trossard 21F. Miretti 15Junior Olaitan 18V. Černý

28D. Vlahović

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Celtic No reported absences

Besiktas No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Celtic+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Besiktas+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Celtic · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 3.00

Besiktas · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-0
Scored: 3.00
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Celtic	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	3.50
Conceded per game	3.50	1.50
Match goals	4.50	5.00	3.95
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	75%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	100%	73%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	2	2

	Celtic	Besiktas	Forecast
Scored per game	2.00	2.20
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.60	3.60	3.95
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	75%
Over 3.5	40%	40%
Both teams scored	60%	60%	73%
Clean sheets	30%	10%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Celtic	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	8.50	4.00
Corners conceded	5.50	5.50
Match total	14.00	9.50	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 9.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Over 10.5	100% 2/2	50% 1/2
Cards
Cards	0.00	1.50
Opponent cards	2.50	2.50
Match total	2.50	4.00	3.76
Over 3.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2
Over 4.5	0% 0/2	50% 1/2

	Celtic	Besiktas	League
Corners
Corners won	8.70	5.78
Corners conceded	4.60	4.44
Match total	13.30	10.22	9.76
Over 8.5	100% 10/10	67% 6/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	1.30	2.20
Opponent cards	2.30	2.60
Match total	3.60	4.80	3.76
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.