Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Anderlecht were slight favourites.
Anderlecht were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 22). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Cercle Brugge. Cercle Brugge had 20.9 days of rest, Anderlecht 20.8 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days20.9 · 20.8Matches / 14d0 · 0
Cercle Brugge32%
Draw24%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge31%
Draw26%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge32%
Draw24%
Anderlecht44%
Cercle Brugge25%
Draw23%
Anderlecht52%
Cercle Brugge32%
Draw24%
Anderlecht44%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 60%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeKevin Van Damme
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.43
- Matches 28
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Anderlecht
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
43
24
AttackIn forecast
37
28
DefenceIn forecast
52
9
Form indexContext
59
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAnderlecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeAnderlecht
1.14
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.71
2.13
xGVia Att/Def
1.77
2.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
-0.99
Goals minus xGContext
-0.77
57%
Scored inContext
57%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
57%
14.57
ShotsContext
16.14
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
26%
On target shareContext
31%
11.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.71
68%
Box shareContext
67%
8%
ConversionContext
6%
1.43
OffsidesContext
1.50
13.43
Shots allowedContext
9.71
4.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.29
4.29
BlocksContext
2.00
2.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
50%
Save rateContext
74%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
380
PassesContext
555
299
Accurate passesContext
476
79%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.56
Team ratingContext
7.04
12.86
FoulsContext
12.71
10.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.86
1.29
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.66
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.67
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.15
-0.36
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
70%
Scored inContext
70%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
60%
13.60
ShotsContext
13.43
4.10
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.71
30%
On target shareContext
35%
9.78
Shots in the boxContext
9.43
67%
Box shareContext
70%
10%
ConversionContext
6%
1.90
OffsidesContext
1.71
13.40
Shots allowedContext
10.86
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
4.30
BlocksContext
2.00
2.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.43
50%
Save rateContext
77%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
384
PassesContext
524
304
Accurate passesContext
446
79%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.65
Team ratingContext
6.96
12.30
FoulsContext
13.44
9.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
LLLDL
Rest20.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 9 · 1 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · -4.6 vs expected
Anderlecht
WDWLW
Rest20.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 59 · 10 pts vs 9.0 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Anderlecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 20.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep | 20.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 19 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté
24Geoffrey Kondo
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen
18L. Le Roux
30B. Akinsola
20A. Manneh
11C. Herrmann
9S. Ngoura
Anderlecht
Confirmed XI
26C. Coosemans(G)
6H. Augustinsson
27L. Pétrot
50K. Barry
79A. Maamar
30Ilias Koutsoupias
55M. Kana
10M. Winkler
14D. Sikan
18L. Ambros
21T. Bentayeb
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Anderlecht
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Anderlecht+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.33points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 2.33
Anderlecht · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws3 Anderlecht wins
Goals per game0.75 – 2.25
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets0% · 75%
- 22 Mar 2026Anderlecht2–3Cercle Brugge
- 3 Aug 2025Cercle Brugge0–2Anderlecht
- 27 Dec 2023Anderlecht2–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Nov 2023Cercle Brugge0–3Anderlecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.14 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.71 | |
| Match goals | 3.14 | 1.71 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 43% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 43% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 14% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 57% | |
| Failed to score | 43% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.10 | 0.80 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.30 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 70% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.83 | 7.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 12.50 | 10.00 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 83% 5/6 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 83% 5/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 83% 5/6 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.29 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 1.43 | |
| Match total | 2.86 | 3.57 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 2/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Anderlecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 7.00 | 6.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 12.22 | 9.89 | 10.11 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 89% 8/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 89% 8/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.60 | 4.10 | 3.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Kevin Van Damme 28 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.79league 3.09
Red cards0.14league 0.14
Cards 5+39%league 27%
Fouls22.2league 22.1
Penalties0.43league 0.25
Home wins29%league 50%
Cercle Brugge3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L9 May 26A · RAAL La Louvière1–42
- L13 Dec 25H · KV Mechelen2–31
- W4 Feb 24H · St. Truiden4–12
Anderlecht1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.2.0 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D17 Sep 23A · Kortrijk2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge7 games · scored 8 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
Anderlecht7 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
0-15
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 22
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
46-60
3
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Anderlecht10 games · scored 15 · conceded 8
1
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
3
31-45
5
46-60
2
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
