Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Cercle Brugge
14th · 24 pts · 24 played
DWDLW
First leg0–2
1–2Full time
Club Brugge KV
3rd · 47 pts · 24 played
WLWLW
Our take
Club Brugge KV were slight favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (65 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Club Brugge KV. Cercle Brugge had 7.8 days of rest, Club Brugge KV 6.8 and had to travel 0 km.
Away travel0 kmRest days7.8 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Cercle Brugge18%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV60%
Cercle Brugge22%
Draw25%
Club Brugge KV54%
Cercle Brugge18%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV60%
Cercle Brugge13%
Draw19%
Club Brugge KV67%
Cercle Brugge19%
Draw22%
Club Brugge KV59%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeLothar D'hondt
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.31
- Matches 39
Team strength
Cercle BruggeClub Brugge KV
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
65
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
75
24
AttackIn forecast
86
28
DefenceIn forecast
58
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisClub Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeClub Brugge KV
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.58
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.51
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.42
75%
Scored inContext
83%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
11.79
ShotsContext
15.63
4.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.38
32%
On target shareContext
34%
8.87
Shots in the boxContext
10.92
73%
Box shareContext
69%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.91
OffsidesContext
2.07
14.21
Shots allowedContext
11.38
5.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.96
3.48
BlocksContext
2.63
3.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
69%
Save rateContext
73%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
63%
352
PassesContext
568
266
Accurate passesContext
497
75%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.82
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.75
FoulsContext
9.21
12.83
Fouls sufferedContext
11.46
1.92
Yellow cardsContext
1.29
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.08
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.80
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.01
xGVia Att/Def
1.60
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.14
+0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+1.20
80%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
9.80
ShotsContext
14.50
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.20
34%
On target shareContext
43%
7.56
Shots in the boxContext
10.30
73%
Box shareContext
72%
14%
ConversionContext
19%
3.56
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
10.70
5.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
4.00
BlocksContext
2.30
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
71%
Save rateContext
64%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
59%
313
PassesContext
554
223
Accurate passesContext
485
71%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.72
Team ratingContext
7.06
10.90
FoulsContext
9.60
13.30
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km247 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Club Brugge KV
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Club Brugge KV |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 0 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 247 km | 176 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.3 | 6.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum
17O. Adewumi
9S. Ngoura
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
4J. Ordoñez
64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
67M. Diakhon
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-7
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 2.17
Club Brugge KV · Away
1.58points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 6-1-5
- Scored
- 1.58
- Conceded
- 1.17
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Club Brugge KV |
|---|---|---|
| Charleroi | W 4–3 AL 2–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Antwerp | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A | L 0–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Genk | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | W 5–3 AW 2–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H | D 5–5 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H |
| OH Leuven | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Standard Liege | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A | W 3–0 HW 2–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H | W 4–3 HW 1–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 1–2 A | L 2–3 HL 0–1 A |
| Gent | L 2–4 H | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 2–3 AW 2–0 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 5–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Points | 24 of 69 · 1.04 per game | 44 of 69 · 1.91 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins2 draws1 Club Brugge KV wins
Goals per game0.33 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 9 Aug 2025Club Brugge KV2–0Cercle Brugge
- 18 Feb 2024Cercle Brugge1–1Club Brugge KV
- 12 Nov 2023Club Brugge KV0–0Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.58 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 2.92 | 3.08 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 92% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 46% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 63% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Cercle Brugge | Club Brugge KV | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 4.00 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.52 | 6.20 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.95 | |
| Match total | 9.74 | 11.15 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 52% 12/23 | 85% 17/20 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 80% 16/20 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 11/23 | 65% 13/20 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.08 | 1.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 3.83 | 3.80 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 7/24 | 33% 8/24 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Club Brugge KV | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.60 | 3.83 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.70 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 10.30 | 9.83 | 9.80 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 83% 5/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 4/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 3/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 4.60 | 3.20 | 4.12 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lothar D'hondt 39 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.77league 3.90
Red cards0.33league 0.19
Cards 5+36%league 41%
Fouls24.9league 22.8
Penalties0.31league 0.30
Home wins44%league 41%
Cercle Brugge6 with this referee
Record2-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.0
Pens for · against2 · 0
Reds4
- D26 Dec 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
- L9 Aug 25A · Club Brugge KV0–24
- D9 Mar 24A · Charleroi0–02
- W11 Feb 24A · Gent2–13
- L27 Dec 23A · Anderlecht0–21
Club Brugge KV5 with this referee
Record3-1-1
Cards · opp.1.4 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L30 Nov 25H · Antwerp0–10
- W21 Sep 25H · St. Truiden2–01
- D31 Aug 25A · Gent1–12
- W9 Aug 25H · Cercle Brugge2–02
- W13 Aug 23A · AS Eupen5–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge24 games · scored 32 · conceded 38
4
3
0-15
4
8
16-30
12
10
31-45
3
8
46-60
3
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Club Brugge KV24 games · scored 45 · conceded 29
4
5
0-15
7
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
8
3
46-60
7
3
61-75
12
9
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 14 · conceded 17
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 28 · conceded 16
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
2
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
7
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
