Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Genk were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 27). Genk usually keep the ball (62% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Cercle Brugge had 14.7 days of rest, Genk 13.9 and had to travel 161 km.
Away travel161 kmRest days14.7 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
Genk37%
Cercle Brugge37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
Cercle Brugge36%
Draw27%
Genk37%
Cercle Brugge29%
Draw26%
Genk45%
Cercle Brugge37%
Draw27%
Genk36%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeWesli De Cremer
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.70
- Matches 20
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Genk
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
44
24
AttackIn forecast
46
28
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenk
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeGenk
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.17
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
60%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.50
ShotsContext
16.50
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.70
32%
On target shareContext
35%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.90
72%
Box shareContext
61%
10%
ConversionContext
9%
2.11
OffsidesContext
1.83
13.90
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.00
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
70%
Save rateContext
72%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
64%
352
PassesContext
540
265
Accurate passesContext
473
75%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.01
10.80
FoulsContext
10.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.62
1.46
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.02
-0.01
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
12.50
ShotsContext
16.10
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.50
32%
On target shareContext
34%
9.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.75
72%
Box shareContext
60%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.11
OffsidesContext
2.11
13.90
Shots allowedContext
9.90
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
3.00
BlocksContext
2.88
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.33
70%
Save rateContext
75%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
61%
352
PassesContext
519
265
Accurate passesContext
453
75%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.89
Team ratingContext
7.04
10.80
FoulsContext
10.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest14.7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genk
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel161 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Genk |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 14.7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 4 Oct | 13.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 161 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 4.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
15G. Magnée
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
5Emmanuel Kakou
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
10O. Diakité
9S. Ngoura
Genk
Confirmed XI
1H. Van Crombrugge(G)
18J. Kayembe
6M. Smets
3Mujaid Sadick
27K. Nkuba
8B. Heynen
21I. Bangoura
14Y. Sor
17P. Hrošovský
7J. Steuckers
9H. Oh
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Genk
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genk+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
0.80points per game · 5 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-3
- Scored
- 1.80
- Conceded
- 2.20
Genk · Away
1.40points per game · 5 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-2
- Scored
- 1.40
- Conceded
- 1.40
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 7 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Antwerp | D 1–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Charleroi | L 2–3 H | L 0–1 H |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | W 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 3–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 6 of 21 · 0.86 per game | 8 of 21 · 1.14 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Cercle Brugge wins1 draws1 Genk wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.00
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 20 Jan 2024Genk1–1Cercle Brugge
- 13 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge0–1Genk
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.80 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
| Cercle Brugge | Genk | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.50 | 2.76 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.60 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.90 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Genk | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.30 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 3.40 | |
| Match total | 9.90 | 9.10 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 4.80 | 4.16 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Wesli De Cremer 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 3.92
Red cards0.20league 0.23
Cards 5+30%league 43%
Fouls23.7league 22.9
Penalties0.70league 0.29
Home wins65%league 42%
Cercle Brugge1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L3 Aug 25H · Anderlecht0–22
Genk3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L25 Nov 23A · Standard Liege0–12
- D1 Oct 23H · KVC Westerlo3–33
- W29 Jul 23A · RWDM4–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
3
4
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
3
61-75
2
2
76-90
Genk10 games · scored 16 · conceded 12
2
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
