Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 28). Cercle Brugge had 6.9 days of rest, Gent 4.8 and had to travel 39 km.
Away travel39 kmRest days6.9 · 4.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw27%
Gent38%
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw27%
Gent37%
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw27%
Gent38%
Cercle Brugge28%
Draw27%
Gent45%
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw27%
Gent37%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.20
- Matches 20
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
Gent
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
24
AttackIn forecast
46
28
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeGent
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.38
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.25
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
1.29
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.37
-0.02
Goals minus xGContext
+0.09
50%
Scored inContext
88%
38%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.63
ShotsContext
13.38
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
33%
On target shareContext
34%
8.38
Shots in the boxContext
8.88
72%
Box shareContext
67%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
13.75
Shots allowedContext
12.88
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.25
3.13
BlocksContext
4.50
2.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.13
69%
Save rateContext
79%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
355
PassesContext
477
267
Accurate passesContext
398
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.89
10.50
FoulsContext
10.63
11.75
Fouls sufferedContext
11.25
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.13
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.14
1.29
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
-0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.06
50%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.50
ShotsContext
12.40
4.20
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.80
34%
On target shareContext
31%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
70%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
1.89
OffsidesContext
2.71
13.20
Shots allowedContext
13.70
4.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.70
3.20
BlocksContext
4.38
2.70
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.60
66%
Save rateContext
81%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
348
PassesContext
469
260
Accurate passesContext
391
75%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.00
FoulsContext
11.90
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
10.90
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest4.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel39 km99 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 4.8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 39 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 180 km | 99 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
15G. Magnée
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
6L. Agyekum
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
17O. Adewumi
9S. Ngoura
10O. Diakité
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
44S. Van der Heyden
3M. Paskotši
29J. Duverne
8M. Skóraś
37A. Kadri
17M. Delorge-Knieper
18M. Samoise
15A. Ito
6O. Gandelman
7A. Kanga
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
1.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.75
- Conceded
- 1.75
Gent · Away
1.00points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 5 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | D 0–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Anderlecht | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 3–0 H |
| Points | 3 of 15 · 0.60 per game | 5 of 15 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws0 Gent wins
Goals per game2.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 11 Feb 2024Gent1–2Cercle Brugge
- 22 Oct 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.63 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.38 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.38 | 2.63 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 38% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 63% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 38% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 13% | |
| Games | 8 | 8 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.75 | 4.63 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 5.25 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.88 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 4/8 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 4/8 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.13 | 1.63 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 2.13 | |
| Match total | 3.38 | 3.76 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 4.5 | 13% 1/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Cercle Brugge | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.90 | 4.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.10 | 5.60 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 10.20 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 3.50 | 4.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 20 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 3.88
Red cards0.15league 0.23
Cards 5+35%league 43%
Fouls24.4league 23.0
Penalties0.20league 0.30
Home wins35%league 42%
Cercle Brugge3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L30 Jan 24A · KVC Westerlo2–45
- W22 Oct 23H · Gent2–03
- L13 Aug 23H · Genk0–12
Gent4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L27 Jul 25A · St. Truiden1–31
- W18 Feb 24A · AS Eupen2–01
- W21 Dec 23H · OH Leuven4–00
- L22 Oct 23A · Cercle Brugge0–23
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge8 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
61-75
2
1
76-90
Gent8 games · scored 11 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 12 · conceded 12
2
2
0-15
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
7
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
