Cercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Cercle Brugge were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. St. Truiden usually keep the ball (58% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Cercle Brugge had 6.1 days of rest, St. Truiden 6 and had to travel.
Rest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Cercle Brugge42%
Draw27%
St. Truiden31%
Cercle Brugge43%
Draw27%
St. Truiden30%
Cercle Brugge42%
Draw27%
St. Truiden31%
Cercle Brugge35%
Draw27%
St. Truiden38%
Cercle Brugge43%
Draw27%
St. Truiden30%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.7
- Penalties per match 0.48
- Matches 23
Team strength
Cercle Brugge
St. Truiden
30
L90 StrengthIn forecast
30
21
Current StrengthIn forecast
35
24
AttackIn forecast
37
28
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSt. Truiden
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Cercle BruggeSt. Truiden
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.60
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.37
40%
Scored inContext
100%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
11.20
ShotsContext
14.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
36%
On target shareContext
32%
8.40
Shots in the boxContext
10.20
75%
Box shareContext
72%
13%
ConversionContext
14%
2.40
OffsidesContext
3.33
14.20
Shots allowedContext
7.60
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.60
3.00
BlocksContext
3.20
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
71%
Save rateContext
77%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
57%
338
PassesContext
461
255
Accurate passesContext
379
76%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.99
Team ratingContext
7.03
10.40
FoulsContext
14.20
13.60
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.40
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.63
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.78
+0.29
Goals minus xGContext
-0.23
60%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.70
ShotsContext
13.30
5.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.33
39%
On target shareContext
29%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.30
73%
Box shareContext
61%
12%
ConversionContext
11%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.33
12.80
Shots allowedContext
11.10
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.30
BlocksContext
3.70
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.10
71%
Save rateContext
72%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
324
PassesContext
504
232
Accurate passesContext
424
72%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.98
12.40
FoulsContext
12.60
13.50
Fouls sufferedContext
10.80
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Cercle Brugge
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km353 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
St. Truiden
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel—0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Cercle Brugge |
St. Truiden |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Aug | 6Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 23 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | — |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 353 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 15.8 | 15.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
21M. Delanghe(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
3E. Utkus
15G. Magnée
37E. Diop
28H. Van der Bruggen
18P. Gerkens
6L. Agyekum
11A. Minda
9S. Ngoura
St. Truiden
Confirmed XI
16L. Kokubo(G)
3T. Hata
26V. Musliu
20R. Van Helden
19L. Patris
8A. Sissako
6R. Yamamoto
10I. Sebaoui
13R. Ito
60R. Vanwesemael
9A. Ferrari
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
St. Truiden
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- St. Truiden+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Cercle Brugge · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
St. Truiden · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden |
|---|---|---|
| Dender | D 0–0 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 3 of 3 · 3.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Cercle Brugge wins0 draws0 St. Truiden wins
Goals per game3.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 4 Feb 2024Cercle Brugge4–1St. Truiden
- 27 Aug 2023St. Truiden0–2Cercle Brugge
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 2.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.60 | 2.70 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 60% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 60% | 0% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.20 | 6.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 8.80 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 2/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 2/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.20 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 3.80 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 3/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 1/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cercle Brugge | St. Truiden | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.30 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 4.10 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 9.10 | 9.59 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 2.90 | 3.89 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 23 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.52league 3.68
Red cards0.17league 0.22
Cards 5+48%league 32%
Fouls22.7league 22.8
Penalties0.48league 0.32
Home wins43%league 43%
Cercle BruggeNo previous matches with this referee.
St. Truiden3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- L16 Dec 23A · RWDM0–32
- D10 Nov 23A · KVC Westerlo3–32
- D1 Oct 23A · Club Brugge KV1–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Cercle Brugge5 games · scored 7 · conceded 5
1
1
0-15
16-30
5
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
1
1
76-90
St. Truiden5 games · scored 10 · conceded 3
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
5
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
3
2
0-15
1
16-30
6
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
4
2
76-90
St. Truiden10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
4
61-75
6
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
