Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
6th · 33 pts · 23 played
DWWWW
First leg3–2
3–4Full time
Cercle Brugge
15th · 21 pts · 23 played
WDWDL
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
Charleroi were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Charleroi had 6.9 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 7.1 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days6.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
Charleroi59%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge17%
Charleroi49%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge25%
Charleroi59%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge17%
Charleroi51%
Draw26%
Cercle Brugge23%
Charleroi59%
Draw23%
Cercle Brugge17%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Put
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 25
Team strength
CharleroiCercle Brugge
31
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
43
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
28
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiCercle Brugge
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.22
1.13
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
1.09
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.48
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
78%
Scored inContext
74%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
22%
11.17
ShotsContext
11.83
4.23
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.00
36%
On target shareContext
31%
7.14
Shots in the boxContext
8.91
62%
Box shareContext
73%
11%
ConversionContext
10%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.91
11.57
Shots allowedContext
13.78
3.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.41
BlocksContext
3.27
2.79
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
75%
Save rateContext
70%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
364
PassesContext
359
291
Accurate passesContext
272
80%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.83
11.74
FoulsContext
10.70
10.91
Fouls sufferedContext
12.91
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.87
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.09
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.27
xGVia Att/Def
0.85
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.56
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
70%
Scored inContext
80%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.80
ShotsContext
10.10
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.88
33%
On target shareContext
31%
8.78
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
66%
Box shareContext
73%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.89
OffsidesContext
3.70
12.10
Shots allowedContext
13.80
3.67
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
2.90
BlocksContext
3.40
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
88%
Save rateContext
71%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
360
PassesContext
335
290
Accurate passesContext
244
80%
Pass accuracyContext
73%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.75
11.90
FoulsContext
10.60
9.30
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km180 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cercle Brugge
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km323 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 180 km | 323 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
23Jules Gaudin
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
40Y. Khalifi
25A. Colassin
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1Warleson(G)
20Flávio Nazinho
66C. Ravych
5Emmanuel Kakou
15G. Magnée
28H. Van der Bruggen
6L. Agyekum
37E. Diop
18P. Gerkens
10O. Diakité
17O. Adewumi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.55points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-2
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 0.91
Cercle Brugge · Away
1.27points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-5-3
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.82
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–4 HD 1–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A | L 1–2 HW 3–0 A |
| Anderlecht | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | L 0–2 H |
| Genk | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | L 2–3 HD 0–0 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 AW 4–1 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | L 2–4 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 30 of 66 · 1.36 per game | 21 of 66 · 0.95 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Charleroi wins1 draws1 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.33
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 67%
- 14 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–3Charleroi
- 9 Mar 2024Charleroi0–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.22 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.13 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.39 | 2.74 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 74% | 91% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 43% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 61% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 22% | |
| Failed to score | 22% | 26% | |
| Games | 23 | 23 |
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.60 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.70 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 40% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.96 | 5.23 | |
| Match total | 9.79 | 9.82 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 65% 15/23 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 11/23 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 39% 9/23 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.09 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.65 | 1.65 | |
| Match total | 3.74 | 3.65 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 11/23 | 48% 11/23 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 8/23 | 26% 6/23 | |
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.90 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 10.40 | 9.76 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 10/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 8/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.06 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Put 25 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.56league 3.85
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+40%league 41%
Fouls24.0league 22.9
Penalties0.24league 0.27
Home wins32%league 40%
Charleroi1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.0.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L27 Jan 24H · Club Brugge KV1–40
Cercle Brugge6 with this referee
Record2-0-4
Cards · opp.2.8 · 2.5
Pens for · against2 · 0
- W17 Jan 26A · KVC Westerlo2–04
- L2 Nov 25A · RAAL La Louvière1–21
- L28 Sep 25H · Gent2–42
- L30 Jan 24A · KVC Westerlo2–45
- W22 Oct 23H · Gent2–03
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi23 games · scored 29 · conceded 26
7
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
7
3
31-45
3
5
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge23 games · scored 28 · conceded 35
3
3
0-15
3
7
16-30
11
10
31-45
3
7
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
4
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 6
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
7
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
61-75
3
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
