Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
Charleroi were the stronger side on L90 Strength (35 vs 23). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Charleroi had 6 days of rest, Cercle Brugge 6.9 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days6 · 6.9Matches / 14d1 · 2
Charleroi58%
Draw22%
Cercle Brugge20%
Charleroi53%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge23%
Charleroi58%
Draw22%
Cercle Brugge20%
Charleroi50%
Draw24%
Cercle Brugge26%
Charleroi57%
Draw22%
Cercle Brugge21%
Over 2.5 58%
Both score 57%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeLetellier Anthony
Team strength
Charleroi
Cercle Brugge
35
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
43
AttackIn forecast
24
50
DefenceIn forecast
28
81
Form indexContext
11
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCercle Brugge
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiCercle Brugge
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.83
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
2.13
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.16
+0.05
Goals minus xGContext
-1.13
100%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
18.33
ShotsContext
15.83
5.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
31%
On target shareContext
21%
12.83
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
70%
Box shareContext
68%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
11.67
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.17
4.83
BlocksContext
4.50
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
82%
Save rateContext
48%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
490
PassesContext
391
416
Accurate passesContext
309
85%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.13
Team ratingContext
6.60
9.83
FoulsContext
12.67
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
9.83
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.56
xGVia Att/Def
1.85
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
90%
Scored inContext
70%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
16.60
ShotsContext
14.60
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
30%
On target shareContext
32%
11.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
70%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
10%
2.25
OffsidesContext
2.20
11.60
Shots allowedContext
12.70
3.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
4.67
BlocksContext
4.20
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.10
86%
Save rateContext
49%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
461
PassesContext
381
389
Accurate passesContext
301
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.04
Team ratingContext
6.73
9.80
FoulsContext
11.70
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
WWWLW
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km178 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 81 · 12 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +4.7 vs expected
Cercle Brugge
DLLLD
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel123 km220 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 11 · 2 pts vs 7.9 for an average club · -4.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Cercle Brugge |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 13 Sep | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 12 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 178 km | 220 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.8 | 20.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
6A. Boukamir
18Y. Khalifi
20F. Mbemba
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Cercle Brugge
Confirmed XI
1G. Coucke(G)
12Valy Konaté
33Royer Caicedo
24Geoffrey Kondo
2I. Diakité
8Erick
15G. Magnée
42L. Mondele
10J. Amani
41Krys Kouassi
13D. Vanzeir
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Cercle Brugge
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Cercle Brugge+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
2.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-1
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.33
Cercle Brugge · Away
0.67points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-2-1
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.33
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| Lommel United | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 1 of 6 · 0.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
1 Charleroi wins1 draws2 Cercle Brugge wins
Goals per game1.50 – 2.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 50%
- 7 Feb 2026Charleroi3–4Cercle Brugge
- 14 Sep 2025Cercle Brugge2–3Charleroi
- 9 Mar 2024Charleroi0–0Cercle Brugge
- 5 Aug 2023Cercle Brugge2–0Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.83 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.83 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 67% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.80 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 2.90 | 3.03 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 60% | 58% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.67 | 9.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.67 | 5.00 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 14.00 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 4/6 | 100% 5/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.33 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 2.33 | 2.83 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Charleroi | Cercle Brugge | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.60 | 7.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 11.40 | 12.44 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 70% 7/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 2.70 | 3.13 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Charleroi6 games · scored 12 · conceded 5
1
0-15
3
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Cercle Brugge6 games · scored 6 · conceded 11
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
3
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cercle Brugge10 games · scored 15 · conceded 20
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
2
5
46-60
3
3
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
