Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
8th · 33 pts · 24 played
WWWWL
First leg1–2
2–3Full time
Gent
7th · 33 pts · 24 played
WWWDL
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
Gent were the stronger side on L90 Strength (37 vs 29). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Charleroi. Charleroi had 7 days of rest, Gent 6.9 and had to travel 88 km.
Away travel88 kmRest days7 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 1
Charleroi44%
Draw27%
Gent30%
Charleroi38%
Draw27%
Gent34%
Charleroi44%
Draw27%
Gent30%
Charleroi36%
Draw27%
Gent37%
Charleroi44%
Draw26%
Gent30%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumEric Lambrechts
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 50
Team strength
CharleroiGent
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
37
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
46
43
AttackIn forecast
46
50
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGent
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiGent
1.33
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.58
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.15
xGVia Att/Def
1.30
1.10
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.49
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
79%
Scored inContext
83%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
25%
11.71
ShotsContext
13.04
4.39
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.38
36%
On target shareContext
34%
7.43
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
62%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
2.43
OffsidesContext
2.35
11.54
Shots allowedContext
13.38
3.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.35
BlocksContext
3.95
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.48
72%
Save rateContext
73%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
370
PassesContext
442
297
Accurate passesContext
365
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.88
11.71
FoulsContext
11.00
10.96
Fouls sufferedContext
10.96
2.04
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.13
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.29
xGVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.74
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
70%
Scored inContext
80%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
14.00
ShotsContext
12.90
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.90
30%
On target shareContext
30%
9.56
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
66%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.75
11.80
Shots allowedContext
13.80
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.10
2.70
BlocksContext
3.70
3.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
74%
Save rateContext
71%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
386
PassesContext
398
315
Accurate passesContext
322
82%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.89
12.20
FoulsContext
11.20
9.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Gent
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel88 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Gent |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 88 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Gent
Confirmed XI
33D. Roef(G)
20Tiago Araújo
57Matties Volckaert
3M. Paskotši
4D. Hashioka
22Leonardo Lopes
15A. Ito
11M. Sonko
37A. Kadri
8M. Skóraś
21M. Dean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Gent
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Gent+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.42points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-5-3
- Scored
- 1.42
- Conceded
- 1.17
Gent · Away
1.08points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-5
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| Cercle Brugge | L 3–4 HW 3–2 A | W 4–2 A |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 1–2 HL 1–3 A |
| Antwerp | W 2–0 AD 1–1 H | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A |
| Standard Liege | W 2–0 HL 1–3 A | W 4–0 AW 4–0 H |
| Anderlecht | W 2–1 AW 1–0 H | W 4–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Genk | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| Union St. Gilloise | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | D 1–1 AL 2–3 H |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 1–1 AW 1–0 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 HD 0–0 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | L 1–4 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | L 1–3 HL 0–4 A |
| Points | 33 of 69 · 1.43 per game | 30 of 69 · 1.30 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Charleroi wins0 draws3 Gent wins
Goals per game0.67 – 3.33
Over 2.5100%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets0% · 33%
- 3 Oct 2025Gent2–1Charleroi
- 17 Mar 2024Gent5–0Charleroi
- 5 Nov 2023Charleroi1–3Gent
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.33 | 1.58 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.58 | 3.04 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 88% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 58% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 63% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 25% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 17% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| Charleroi | Gent | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.83 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.88 | 5.32 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 10.09 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 15/24 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 46% 11/24 | 59% 13/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 9/24 | 50% 11/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.17 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.92 | 3.71 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 9/24 | 42% 10/24 | |
| Charleroi | Gent | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.30 | 6.00 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 10.67 | 9.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 70% 7/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Lambrechts Belgium · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.02league 3.88
Red cards0.12league 0.19
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls22.9league 22.9
Penalties0.34league 0.30
Home wins48%league 41%
Charleroi4 with this referee
Record0-0-4
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L31 Oct 25A · Standard Liege1–33
- L11 Feb 24H · Anderlecht1–30
- L21 Jan 24A · Antwerp1–42
- L10 Dec 23H · Union St. Gilloise1–33
Gent3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L19 Oct 25A · Zulte Waregem1–42
- D10 Mar 24A · Union St. Gilloise1–11
- D20 Aug 23H · St. Truiden2–22
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi24 games · scored 32 · conceded 30
7
6
0-15
4
6
16-30
7
4
31-45
4
5
46-60
2
6
61-75
8
3
76-90
Gent24 games · scored 38 · conceded 35
5
2
0-15
5
10
16-30
5
6
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
5
61-75
14
9
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
4
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
76-90
Gent10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
3
4
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
1
46-60
2
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
