Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi had 7.9 days of rest, KVC Westerlo 6.2 and had to travel 82 km.
Away travel82 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d1 · 1
Charleroi42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Charleroi42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Charleroi42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Charleroi35%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo38%
Charleroi42%
Draw27%
KVC Westerlo31%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeBert Verbeke
- Cards per match 2.4
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 7
Team strength
Charleroi
KVC Westerlo
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
33
43
AttackIn forecast
42
50
DefenceIn forecast
32
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKVC Westerlo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiKVC Westerlo
1.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.46
1.54
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
0.96
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
1.08
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
85%
Scored inContext
62%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
31%
9.92
ShotsContext
15.23
3.92
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.83
40%
On target shareContext
29%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.54
59%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
2.18
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.15
Shots allowedContext
11.92
3.46
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
3.83
BlocksContext
4.00
2.27
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
64%
Save rateContext
64%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
367
PassesContext
376
291
Accurate passesContext
301
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.86
11.62
FoulsContext
11.38
12.15
Fouls sufferedContext
11.77
2.15
Yellow cardsContext
1.46
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
0.97
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.25
+0.33
Goals minus xGContext
-0.11
90%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
9.90
ShotsContext
15.70
3.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.11
39%
On target shareContext
29%
5.70
Shots in the boxContext
10.80
58%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
2.13
OffsidesContext
1.33
11.30
Shots allowedContext
11.30
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.80
4.22
BlocksContext
3.63
2.38
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
63%
Save rateContext
66%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
362
PassesContext
371
285
Accurate passesContext
296
79%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.84
Team ratingContext
6.88
10.80
FoulsContext
11.90
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km166 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KVC Westerlo
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel82 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
KVC Westerlo |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 31 Oct | 6.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 2 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 82 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 166 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 14.1 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
KVC Westerlo
Confirmed XI
99A. Jungdal(G)
22B. Reynolds
5Seiji Kimura
40E. Bayram
23L. Mbamba-Muanda
46A. Piedfort
34D. Haspolat
77J. Alcócer
13I. Sakamoto
7A. Sayyadmanesh
90Nacho Ferri
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
KVC Westerlo
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KVC Westerlo+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.33points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-2
- Scored
- 1.17
- Conceded
- 1.17
KVC Westerlo · Away
0.83points per game · 6 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-3
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | KVC Westerlo |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Liege | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 H |
| Anderlecht | W 1–0 H | L 2–5 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | L 1–3 A | L 0–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 0–2 H | L 0–1 H |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | W 3–1 H |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | L 1–4 A |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 A |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 15 of 36 · 1.25 per game | 14 of 36 · 1.17 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Charleroi wins0 draws0 KVC Westerlo wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 1 Mar 2024KVC Westerlo0–1Charleroi
- 25 Nov 2023Charleroi3–2KVC Westerlo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.23 | 1.46 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.54 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 2.77 | 3.15 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 77% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 38% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 38% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 38% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 31% | |
| Failed to score | 15% | 38% | |
| Games | 13 | 13 |
| Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.90 | 2.65 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.08 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.54 | 4.62 | |
| Match total | 8.54 | 9.70 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 23% 3/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 23% 3/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.31 | 1.46 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.62 | 1.77 | |
| Match total | 3.93 | 3.23 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 54% 7/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 4.5 | 38% 5/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Charleroi | KVC Westerlo | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 5.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.40 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 8.40 | 9.50 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 3.20 | 4.01 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Bert Verbeke 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.43league 3.79
Red cards0.00league 0.21
Cards 5+0%league 41%
Fouls22.4league 23.1
Penalties0.00league 0.28
Home wins43%league 43%
CharleroiNo previous matches with this referee.
KVC Westerlo1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W2 Aug 25H · Zulte Waregem3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi13 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
KVC Westerlo13 games · scored 19 · conceded 22
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
2
7
31-45
4
2
46-60
5
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
3
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
KVC Westerlo10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
6
31-45
2
2
46-60
5
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
