Charleroi vs OH Leuven – 9 Aug 2026

Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Aug 9 · 15:00 Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Charleroi

Charleroi

3–1Full time

OH Leuven

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Charleroi were slight favourites.

Charleroi were the stronger side on L90 Strength (28 vs 20). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Charleroi. Charleroi had 139.9 days of rest, OH Leuven 139.9 and had to travel 53 km.

Away travel53 kmRest days139.9 · 139.9Matches / 14d0 · 0

Charleroi53%

Draw24%

OH Leuven23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.01

Charleroi51%

Draw24%

OH Leuven24%

Expected goals 1.66 – 1.07

Charleroi53%

Draw24%

OH Leuven23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.01

Charleroi46%

Draw26%

OH Leuven28%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.13

Charleroi53%

Draw24%

OH Leuven23%

Expected goals 1.69 – 1.02

Over 2.5 50% Both score 52% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Charleroi)

No weather data yet

RefereeMichiel Allaerts

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.07
Matches 15

Team strength

Charleroi

OH Leuven

28 L90 StrengthIn forecast 20

38 Current StrengthIn forecast 18

43 AttackIn forecast 17

50 DefenceIn forecast 30

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Charleroi

Attack—

Defense risk—

OH Leuven

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Charleroi

OH Leuven

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.90

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.70

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 0.91

1.23 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

-0.12 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 50%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

11.80 ShotsContext 9.70

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.10

34% On target shareContext 32%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.10

65% Box shareContext 71%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.57 OffsidesContext 3.43

11.50 Shots allowedContext 14.10

3.30 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.20

4.00 BlocksContext 3.60

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.70

81% Save rateContext 71%

50% PossessionIn forecast 48%

394 PassesContext 372

328 Accurate passesContext 300

83% Pass accuracyContext 81%

6.95 Team ratingContext 6.82

10.70 FoulsContext 10.40

10.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.10

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Charleroi

Rest139.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

OH Leuven

Rest139.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel53 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Charleroi	OH Leuven
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	139.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar	139.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 22 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	53 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Charleroi Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30M. Koné(G)

24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof

18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir

10P. Guiagon 14P. Pflücke 17A. Bernier

21A. Scheidler

OH Leuven Confirmed XI

3-4-3

16T. van den Heuvel(G)

34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 28E. Pletinckx

11H. Teklab 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil

9A. Traoré 19C. Ikwuemesi 21W. Balikwisha

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Charleroi Absences are shown before kick-off

OH Leuven Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Charleroi+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
OH Leuven+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Charleroi · Home No home games yet this season.

OH Leuven · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Charleroi wins4 draws1 OH Leuven wins

Goals per game1.00 – 1.00 Over 2.517% Both scored50% Clean sheets33% · 33%

19 May 2026Charleroi1–1OH Leuven
25 Apr 2026OH Leuven0–2Charleroi
14 Mar 2026Charleroi0–2OH Leuven
27 Jul 2025OH Leuven2–2Charleroi
17 Feb 2024OH Leuven0–0Charleroi
29 Jul 2023Charleroi1–1OH Leuven

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	50%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	52%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.30
Conceded per game	1.60	1.40
Match goals	3.10	2.70	2.69
Over 1.5	90%	60%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	50%
Over 3.5	30%	40%
Both teams scored	50%	50%	52%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	20%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.40
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	1.80
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Charleroi	OH Leuven	League
Corners
Corners won	5.30	4.20
Corners conceded	5.70	5.90
Match total	11.00	10.10	9.40
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Cards
Cards	2.20	1.70
Opponent cards	1.50	0.90
Match total	3.70	2.60	1.80
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michiel Allaerts 15 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.27league 1.80

Red cards0.20league 0.00

Cards 5+27%league 0%

Fouls23.5league 20.0

Penalties0.07league 0.40

Home wins27%league 40%

Charleroi1 with this referee

Record0-0-1 Cards · opp.4.0 · 1.0 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L20 Sep 25H · Zulte Waregem1–24

OH Leuven2 with this referee

Record0-1-1 Cards · opp.3.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against0 · 0

D24 Jan 26H · Union St. Gilloise0–03
L21 Dec 25H · Cercle Brugge0–24

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.