Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Charleroi
12th · 19 pts · 17 played
LWLDL
First leg1–3
1–1Full time
Union St. Gilloise
1st · 37 pts · 17 played
WDWLD
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 21). Charleroi had 7.2 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 8 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise53%
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Charleroi17%
Draw23%
Union St. Gilloise60%
Charleroi22%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise53%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.15
- Matches 41
Team strength
CharleroiUnion St. Gilloise
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
57
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
43
AttackIn forecast
62
50
DefenceIn forecast
74
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiUnion St. Gilloise
1.06
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.88
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.59
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.83
1.05
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.67
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
71%
Scored inContext
82%
24%
Clean sheetsContext
47%
10.29
ShotsContext
15.18
4.06
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.88
37%
On target shareContext
39%
6.50
Shots in the boxContext
12.13
61%
Box shareContext
77%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
3.15
11.35
Shots allowedContext
8.53
3.63
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.00
3.69
BlocksContext
2.47
2.64
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.43
71%
Save rateContext
77%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
364
PassesContext
435
290
Accurate passesContext
357
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
7.01
11.12
FoulsContext
12.65
11.65
Fouls sufferedContext
8.88
1.88
Yellow cardsContext
2.12
0.06
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.02
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
-0.29
Goals minus xGContext
+0.07
60%
Scored inContext
80%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
10.40
ShotsContext
13.60
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
38%
On target shareContext
37%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
11.00
58%
Box shareContext
74%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.71
OffsidesContext
3.86
12.00
Shots allowedContext
10.30
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
4.11
BlocksContext
3.10
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
67%
Save rateContext
55%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
362
PassesContext
396
290
Accurate passesContext
323
80%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.83
Team ratingContext
6.88
9.40
FoulsContext
12.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km137 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Union St. Gilloise
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 7 Dec | 8Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 6 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 137 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.1 | 6.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
27L. Blum
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
37K. Scherpen(G)
48F. Leysen
16C. Burgess
5K. Mac Allister
6K. Van de Perre
25A. Khalaili
17R. Schoofs
8A. Zorgane
27L. Patris
13K. Rodríguez
12P. David
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-2
- Scored
- 1.13
- Conceded
- 0.88
Union St. Gilloise · Away
1.67points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-3-2
- Scored
- 1.33
- Conceded
- 0.89
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise |
|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H | D 1–1 A |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | D 0–0 A |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| KVC Westerlo | W 2–0 H | W 2–0 H |
| Standard Liege | L 1–3 A | W 3–0 H |
| Anderlecht | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AW 2–0 H |
| Gent | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 HW 3–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | L 1–2 H | W 4–1 A |
| Genk | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 A |
| Cercle Brugge | W 3–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Dender | W 3–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Antwerp | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 5–0 H |
| Points | 19 of 48 · 1.19 per game | 34 of 48 · 2.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
0 Charleroi wins0 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 3.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 18 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise3–1Charleroi
- 10 Dec 2023Charleroi1–3Union St. Gilloise
- 1 Oct 2023Union St. Gilloise3–1Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.06 | 1.88 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 0.59 | |
| Match goals | 2.35 | 2.47 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 35% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 24% | |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 41% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 24% | 47% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 18% | |
| Games | 17 | 17 |
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.70 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.71 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 30% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.53 | 5.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.82 | 3.88 | |
| Match total | 9.35 | 9.32 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 53% 9/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 41% 7/17 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 6/17 | 44% 7/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.12 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.71 | 2.24 | |
| Match total | 3.71 | 4.36 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 47% 8/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Over 4.5 | 35% 6/17 | 65% 11/17 | |
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.40 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 8.11 | 9.57 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 41 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.10league 3.80
Red cards0.39league 0.18
Cards 5+66%league 42%
Fouls23.1league 22.9
Penalties0.15league 0.30
Home wins41%league 42%
Charleroi3 with this referee
Record2-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W24 Oct 25H · Anderlecht1–01
- L3 Oct 25A · Gent1–24
- W6 Oct 23H · RWDM2–11
Union St. Gilloise3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 1
- D9 Nov 25A · KV Mechelen1–12
- W2 Mar 24A · OH Leuven2–03
- L16 Sep 23H · Genk0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi17 games · scored 18 · conceded 22
3
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise17 games · scored 32 · conceded 10
4
2
0-15
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
5
2
46-60
7
61-75
10
4
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 7 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
1
3
61-75
1
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 14 · conceded 14
1
3
0-15
16-30
3
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
