Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Union St. Gilloise were slight favourites.
Union St. Gilloise were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 34). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Charleroi. Charleroi had 6.9 days of rest, Union St. Gilloise 2.8 and had to travel 49 km.
Away travel49 kmRest days6.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Charleroi31%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise44%
Charleroi26%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise49%
Charleroi31%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise44%
Charleroi24%
Draw24%
Union St. Gilloise52%
Charleroi30%
Draw25%
Union St. Gilloise44%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeNicolas Laforge
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 49
Team strength
Charleroi
Union St. Gilloise
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
70
43
AttackIn forecast
62
50
DefenceIn forecast
74
83
Form indexContext
78
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUnion St. Gilloise
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiUnion St. Gilloise
2.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.75
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.25
1.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.41
0.62
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.91
+0.30
Goals minus xGContext
+1.34
100%
Scored inContext
75%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
75%
18.75
ShotsContext
13.75
6.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
32%
On target shareContext
47%
12.75
Shots in the boxContext
10.75
68%
Box shareContext
78%
12%
ConversionContext
20%
2.67
OffsidesContext
3.75
9.50
Shots allowedContext
9.75
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.75
2.75
BlocksContext
3.50
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.25
88%
Save rateContext
82%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
495
PassesContext
469
419
Accurate passesContext
388
85%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.23
Team ratingContext
7.23
8.00
FoulsContext
10.75
12.25
Fouls sufferedContext
13.25
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.40
0.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.45
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
0.83
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.25
Goals minus xGContext
+0.72
90%
Scored inContext
70%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.90
ShotsContext
16.50
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
6.50
31%
On target shareContext
39%
10.10
Shots in the boxContext
12.22
67%
Box shareContext
75%
11%
ConversionContext
15%
2.43
OffsidesContext
3.13
10.00
Shots allowedContext
10.70
3.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.30
3.50
BlocksContext
3.75
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.11
88%
Save rateContext
63%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
435
PassesContext
468
367
Accurate passesContext
388
84%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
7.05
Team ratingContext
7.18
9.50
FoulsContext
10.11
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.67
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
WWWW
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km190 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 83 · 12 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +5.2 vs expected
Union St. Gilloise
WDWW
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel49 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Form 78 · 10 pts vs 6.5 for an average club · +2.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Union St. Gilloise |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 8 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 29 Aug | 2.8Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 2 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 49 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 190 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 2 / 2 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 7.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi
6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba
8J. Romsaas
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Union St. Gilloise
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
80O. Kričfaluši
29M. Sylla
5K. Mac Allister
11G. da Silva Carvalho
8A. Zorgane
6K. Van de Perre
27L. Patris
23B. Zeneli
9Mateo Biondic
30R. Florucz
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Union St. Gilloise
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Union St. Gilloise+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
3.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 2.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Union St. Gilloise · Away
3.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-0-0
- Scored
- 4.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
0 Charleroi wins1 draws3 Union St. Gilloise wins
Goals per game1.00 – 2.50
Over 2.575%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 14 Dec 2025Charleroi1–1Union St. Gilloise
- 18 Oct 2025Union St. Gilloise3–1Charleroi
- 10 Dec 2023Charleroi1–3Union St. Gilloise
- 1 Oct 2023Union St. Gilloise3–1Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.25 | 2.75 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.25 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 3.00 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 75% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 25% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 75% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 25% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 2.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 3.20 | 2.72 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 3.25 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 1.75 | 3.50 | 2.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Charleroi | Union St. Gilloise | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.10 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 10.60 | 9.00 | 9.68 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.40 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 2.80 | 4.10 | 2.81 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Nicolas Laforge 49 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.27league 2.68
Red cards0.16league 0.14
Cards 5+45%league 19%
Fouls21.9league 21.3
Penalties0.24league 0.27
Home wins43%league 49%
Charleroi5 with this referee
Record0-3-2
Cards · opp.2.4 · 2.6
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- D21 Apr 26A · Genk1–11
- L7 Dec 25A · KV Mechelen0–12
- L10 Aug 25A · RAAL La Louvière0–10
- D17 Feb 24A · OH Leuven0–05
- D13 Aug 23H · Standard Liege1–14
Union St. Gilloise7 with this referee
Record7-0-0
Cards · opp.2.4 · 3.0
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W12 Apr 26A · KV Mechelen1–04
- W8 Feb 26H · RAAL La Louvière2–14
- W22 Nov 25H · Cercle Brugge2–02
- W27 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo2–03
- W25 Feb 24H · Standard Liege2–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi4 games · scored 9 · conceded 2
0-15
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
1
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Union St. Gilloise4 games · scored 11 · conceded 1
1
0-15
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 17 · conceded 4
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
2
31-45
4
46-60
5
61-75
4
1
76-90
Union St. Gilloise10 games · scored 24 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
5
3
16-30
5
2
31-45
3
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
