Charleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Charleroi were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Charleroi had 2.9 days of rest, Zulte Waregem 7.1 and had to travel 89 km.
Away travel89 kmRest days2.9 · 7.1Matches / 14d2 · 1
Charleroi45%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem28%
Charleroi45%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem28%
Charleroi45%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem28%
Charleroi37%
Draw28%
Zulte Waregem35%
Charleroi45%
Draw27%
Zulte Waregem28%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Charleroi)
No weather data yet
RefereeMichiel Allaerts
- Cards per match 3.7
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 6
Team strength
Charleroi
Zulte Waregem
25
L90 StrengthIn forecast
23
38
Current StrengthIn forecast
30
43
AttackIn forecast
27
50
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisZulte Waregem
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
CharleroiZulte Waregem
1.57
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.49
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
86%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.14
ShotsContext
10.14
3.71
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
37%
On target shareContext
41%
6.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
64%
Box shareContext
64%
16%
ConversionContext
13%
2.29
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.43
Shots allowedContext
16.00
3.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.14
BlocksContext
4.43
2.83
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
77%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
367
PassesContext
370
290
Accurate passesContext
298
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.57
FoulsContext
11.86
12.57
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.71
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.94
1.09
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.55
+0.12
Goals minus xGContext
+0.35
70%
Scored inContext
71%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
10.38
ShotsContext
10.14
3.88
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.14
37%
On target shareContext
41%
6.63
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
64%
13%
ConversionContext
13%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
10.75
Shots allowedContext
16.00
4.13
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.00
BlocksContext
4.43
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
64%
48%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
373
PassesContext
370
294
Accurate passesContext
298
79%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.87
13.13
FoulsContext
11.86
12.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.57
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Charleroi
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km440 km in 14d
Schedule load8%Low
Zulte Waregem
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel89 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Charleroi |
Zulte Waregem |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 8 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 17 Sep | 7.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 89 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 440 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
55M. Delavallée(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
17A. Bernier
25A. Colassin
14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler
Zulte Waregem
Confirmed XI
13B. Gabriël(G)
55Y. Cappelle
5Jakob Kiilerich
3Anton Tanghe
12W. Paugain
22J. Opoku
8T. Claes
21Tochukwu Nnadi
11S. Gavriel
18A. Ementa
24Jeppe Erenbjerg
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Zulte Waregem
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Zulte Waregem+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Charleroi · Home
1.67points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-0
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 1.00
Zulte Waregem · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 2.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Charleroi | Zulte Waregem |
|---|---|---|
| Genk | W 1–0 A | L 2–3 A |
| St. Truiden | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| OH Leuven | D 2–2 A | W 2–0 H |
| Points | 5 of 9 · 1.67 per game | 3 of 9 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Charleroi | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Charleroi | Zulte Waregem | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.57 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match goals | 2.71 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 43% | 43% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 43% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 29% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Charleroi | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.86 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 6.57 | |
| Match total | 7.86 | 10.86 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 2/7 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 14% 1/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.43 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 3.57 | 4.29 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Charleroi | Zulte Waregem | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.13 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.63 | 6.57 | |
| Match total | 7.76 | 10.86 | 9.43 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 2/8 | 71% 5/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 13% 1/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 1/8 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.60 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.10 | 4.29 | 3.95 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 43% 3/7 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michiel Allaerts 6 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.67league 3.71
Red cards0.00league 0.23
Cards 5+17%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 23.0
Penalties0.00league 0.38
Home wins50%league 45%
CharleroiNo previous matches with this referee.
Zulte WaregemNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Charleroi7 games · scored 11 · conceded 8
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
61-75
3
2
76-90
Zulte Waregem7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 12 · conceded 15
2
2
0-15
1
3
16-30
3
2
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
3
3
76-90
Zulte Waregem7 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
2
3
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
