Chelsea vs Brighton – 30 Aug 2026

Premier League Gameweek 2 Sun, Aug 30 · 14:00 Stamford Bridge, London

Chelsea 8th · 3 pts · 1 played W

4–3Full time

Brighton 5th · 3 pts · 1 played W

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brighton. Chelsea had 5.8 days of rest, Brighton 7 and had to travel 72 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel72 kmRest days5.8 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1

Chelsea36%

Draw24%

Brighton40%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.59

Chelsea41%

Draw26%

Brighton33%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25

Chelsea36%

Draw24%

Brighton40%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.58

Chelsea29%

Draw23%

Brighton48%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.79

Chelsea36%

Draw24%

Brighton40%

Expected goals 1.44 – 1.52

Over 2.5 59% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (London)

22°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 16 km/h
Humidity 55%

RefereeMichael Oliver

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 200

Team strength

Chelsea

Brighton

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 78

77 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

77 AttackIn forecast 87

74 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Chelsea

Brighton

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

2.20 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

1.45 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.03

-0.34 Goals minus xGContext -0.15

50% Scored inContext 80%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

13.10 ShotsContext 14.60

4.44 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.50

31% On target shareContext 38%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 10.90

58% Box shareContext 75%

6% ConversionContext 12%

2.33 OffsidesContext 1.88

11.30 Shots allowedContext 9.70

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.38

2.89 BlocksContext 2.75

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.25

57% Save rateContext 74%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

508 PassesContext 507

438 Accurate passesContext 430

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.69 Team ratingContext 7.02

10.20 FoulsContext 11.40

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 9.40

2.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Chelsea W

Rest5.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 69 · 3 pts vs 0.8 for an average club · +1.8 vs expected

W24 AugA · Fulham3–21.2 xPts

Brighton W

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel72 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 68 · 3 pts vs 0.9 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected

W23 AugH · Aston Villa4–01.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Chelsea	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.8Premier League 2026-2027, 24 Aug	7Premier League 2026-2027, 23 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	72 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 1	1 / 1 / 1
Next matchdays after this one	7.1	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Chelsea Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

26E. Martínez(G)

6L. Colwill 5M. Lacroix 3W. Fofana

21J. Hato 45R. Lavia 27M. Gusto 7Pedro Neto

17M. Rogers 10C. Palmer

9João Pedro

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 5L. Dunk 44L. Vušković 27M. Wieffer

21O. Boscagli 13P. Groß

29M. De Cuyper 35M. Yalcouyé 25D. Gómez

19C. Kostoulas

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Chelsea Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Chelsea-0.8 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Brighton+0.8 pp

Home / Away this season

Chelsea · Home No home games yet this season.

Brighton · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Chelsea wins2 draws5 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.40 – 2.20 Over 2.580% Both scored80% Clean sheets0% · 20%

21 Apr 2026Brighton3–0Chelsea
27 Sep 2025Chelsea1–3Brighton
14 Feb 2025Brighton3–0Chelsea
28 Sep 2024Chelsea4–2Brighton
15 May 2024Brighton1–2Chelsea
3 Dec 2023Chelsea3–2Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Chelsea	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	3.00	4.00
Conceded per game	2.00	0.00
Match goals	5.00	4.00	3.08
Over 1.5	100%	100%
Over 2.5	100%	100%	59%
Over 3.5	100%	100%
Both teams scored	100%	0%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	100%
Failed to score	0%	0%
Games	1	1

	Chelsea	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.80
Conceded per game	2.00	1.00
Match goals	2.80	2.80	3.08
Over 1.5	80%	80%
Over 2.5	70%	70%	59%
Over 3.5	20%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	50%
Failed to score	50%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Chelsea	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.00	5.00
Corners conceded	6.00	2.00
Match total	10.00	7.00	9.50
Over 8.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 9.5	100% 1/1	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	0% 0/1	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	3.00	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	4.00
Match total	5.00	6.00	4.07
Over 3.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	100% 1/1	100% 1/1

	Chelsea	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	5.56
Corners conceded	4.60	5.22
Match total	10.10	10.78	9.50
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	50% 5/10	56% 5/9
Cards
Cards	2.60	1.60
Opponent cards	1.80	2.30
Match total	4.40	3.90	4.07
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	40% 4/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Michael Oliver 200 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.74league 3.80

Red cards0.13league 0.07

Cards 5+35%league 40%

Fouls22.5league 23.5

Penalties0.21league 0.20

Home wins45%league 47%

Chelsea19 with this referee

Record5-6-8 Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.8 Pens for · against1 · 0

L18 Apr 26H · Manchester United0–11
D4 Jan 26A · Manchester City1–13
D6 Dec 25A · Bournemouth0–02
W22 Aug 25A · West Ham5–11
D6 Apr 25A · Brentford0–03

Brighton10 with this referee

Record4-3-3 Cards · opp.1.2 · 1.7 Pens for · against3 · 0

L17 May 26A · Leeds0–10
L24 Jan 26A · Fulham1–21
W30 Nov 25A · Nottingham Forest2–01
W1 Nov 25H · Leeds3–00
W10 May 25A · Wolves2–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.