Chelsea
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Chelsea35.1%fair odds 2.85
Draw25.1%fair odds 3.99
Brighton39.8%fair odds 2.51
Expected goals1.48 – 1.59total 3.08
Likeliest score1–111.5%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Brighton
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Chelsea ↓ · Brighton → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.5 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Chelsea goals, columns Brighton goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–111.5%8.71
- 1–28.7%11.52
- 2–18.1%12.37
- 0–16.8%14.78
- 2–26.4%15.53
- 1–06.3%15.97
- 0–25.9%17.09
- 0–05.2%19.28
- 2–05.1%19.71
- 1–34.6%21.69
Winning margin
6.4%
Chelsea by 3+
fair 15.66
10.5%
Chelsea by 2
fair 9.56
18.2%
Chelsea by 1
fair 5.48
25.1%
Draw
fair 3.99
19.6%
Brighton by 1
fair 5.09
12.1%
Brighton by 2
fair 8.29
8.2%
Brighton by 3+
fair 12.26
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Chelsea goals
23%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
Brighton goals
20%0
32%1
26%2
14%3
8%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea win | 35.1% | 35.3% | -0.2 pp |
| Draw | 25.1% | 25.7% | -0.6 pp |
| Brighton win | 39.8% | 39.0% | +0.8 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.4% | 56.8% | +2.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 62.2% | 60.2% | +1.9 pp |
| Expected goals Chelsea | 1.48 | 1.44 | +0.05 |
| Expected goals Brighton | 1.59 | 1.52 | +0.07 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Chelsea win35.1%2.85
- Draw25.1%3.99
- Brighton win39.8%2.51
- Double chance Chelsea or draw60.2%1.66
- Double chance Chelsea or Brighton74.9%1.33
- Double chance Brighton or draw64.9%1.54
- Draw no bet Chelsea46.8%2.14
- Draw no bet Brighton53.2%1.88
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.8%1.22
- Over 2.559.4%1.68
- Over 3.537.0%2.70
- Over 4.519.8%5.05
- Under 1.518.2%5.49
- Under 2.540.6%2.46
- Under 3.563.0%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes62.2%1.61
- No37.8%2.64
- Yes and over 2.550.7%1.97
- Chelsea win and yes19.9%5.01
- Draw and yes19.9%5.03
- Brighton win and yes22.4%4.47
Team goals
- Chelsea over 0.577.3%1.29
- Chelsea over 1.543.7%2.29
- Chelsea over 2.518.7%5.34
- Brighton over 0.579.7%1.26
- Brighton over 1.547.3%2.11
- Brighton over 2.521.5%4.65
- Chelsea clean sheet20.3%4.92
- Brighton clean sheet22.7%4.41
- Chelsea win to nil15.1%6.61
- Brighton win to nil17.5%5.72
Handicap
- Chelsea −1.516.8%5.94
- Chelsea −2.56.4%15.66
- Brighton +1.583.2%1.20
- Brighton +2.593.6%1.07
- Brighton −1.520.2%4.95
- Chelsea +1.579.8%1.25
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Premier League 2026-2027
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored15
Favourite won33.3%
Avg chance given to result36.7%
1X2 Brier0.667
Over 2.5 called right60.0%
BTTS called right53.3%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 4 | 38.1% | 0.0% |
| 40–50% | 4 | 45.7% | 50.0% |
| 50–60% | 5 | 55.3% | 40.0% |
| 60–70% | 1 | 68.6% | 0.0% |
| 70–80% | 1 | 79.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 5 of 15 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.7710 | 0.7652 |
| Avg chance given to result | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| Favourite won | 20.0% | 20.0% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 5 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 15 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.