Club Brugge KV
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.
Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (67 vs 22). Club Brugge KV had 13.3 days of rest, Charleroi 14.1 and had to travel 123 km.
Away travel123 kmRest days13.3 · 14.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Club Brugge KV73%
Draw17%
Charleroi10%
Club Brugge KV72%
Draw18%
Charleroi10%
Club Brugge KV73%
Draw17%
Charleroi10%
Club Brugge KV66%
Draw20%
Charleroi13%
Club Brugge KV72%
Draw18%
Charleroi10%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)
No weather data yet
RefereeSimon Bourdeaud'hui
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 16
Team strength
Club Brugge KV
Charleroi
67
L90 StrengthIn forecast
22
75
Current StrengthIn forecast
38
86
AttackIn forecast
43
58
DefenceIn forecast
50
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCharleroi
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Club Brugge KVCharleroi
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.29
0.93
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.43
1.36
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.08
+0.14
Goals minus xGContext
+0.24
86%
Scored inContext
86%
43%
Clean sheetsContext
21%
15.36
ShotsContext
10.07
4.79
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.21
31%
On target shareContext
42%
10.43
Shots in the boxContext
6.07
67%
Box shareContext
59%
10%
ConversionContext
13%
2.09
OffsidesContext
2.58
11.93
Shots allowedContext
11.36
3.93
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.71
BlocksContext
3.85
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
84%
Save rateContext
70%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
554
PassesContext
360
485
Accurate passesContext
285
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.86
9.43
FoulsContext
11.36
12.36
Fouls sufferedContext
12.07
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
2.14
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.02
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.53
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.09
+0.58
Goals minus xGContext
+0.29
80%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.40
ShotsContext
9.80
3.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
33%
On target shareContext
44%
7.22
Shots in the boxContext
5.70
62%
Box shareContext
59%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.88
16.00
Shots allowedContext
11.80
5.10
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
3.80
BlocksContext
4.44
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.50
71%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
494
PassesContext
352
430
Accurate passesContext
277
87%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.88
8.50
FoulsContext
9.90
12.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.30
1.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Club Brugge KV
Rest13.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km176 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Charleroi
Rest14.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel123 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Club Brugge KV |
Charleroi |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.3Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 9 Nov | 14.1Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 8 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 123 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 176 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.7 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Club Brugge KV
Confirmed XI
29N. Jackers(G)
65J. Seys
44B. Mechele
58J. Spileers
41H. Siquet
15R. Onyedika
25A. Stanković
67M. Diakhon
20H. Vanaken
9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
Charleroi
Confirmed XI
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita
95C. Keita
4A. Ousou
3K. Van Den Kerkhof
5É. Camara
22Y. Titraoui
10P. Guiagon
14P. Pflücke
17A. Bernier
21A. Scheidler
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Club Brugge KV
Absences are shown before kick-off
Charleroi
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Charleroi+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Club Brugge KV · Home
2.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 2.33
- Conceded
- 1.17
Charleroi · Away
1.00points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-1-4
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.86
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | Club Brugge KV | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| Anderlecht | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Dender | W 2–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Antwerp | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 H |
| OH Leuven | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Union St. Gilloise | W 1–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Standard Liege | W 2–1 A | L 1–3 A |
| KVC Westerlo | D 5–5 H | W 2–0 H |
| St. Truiden | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Gent | D 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Zulte Waregem | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | W 2–0 H | W 3–2 A |
| KV Mechelen | L 1–2 A | L 0–2 H |
| Genk | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 29 of 42 · 2.07 per game | 18 of 42 · 1.29 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
2 Club Brugge KV wins0 draws0 Charleroi wins
Goals per game4.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 27 Jan 2024Charleroi1–4Club Brugge KV
- 16 Sep 2023Club Brugge KV4–2Charleroi
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Club Brugge KV | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.29 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.93 | 1.43 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.71 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 57% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 7% | 36% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 64% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 43% | 21% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Club Brugge KV | Charleroi | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.50 | 2.90 | 3.12 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 60% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Club Brugge KV | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.54 | 4.21 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.23 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 10.77 | 8.78 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 10/13 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 62% 8/13 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.64 | 1.57 | |
| Match total | 4.14 | 3.86 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 8/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 36% 5/14 | |
| Club Brugge KV | Charleroi | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.30 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.89 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 10.11 | 9.10 | 9.52 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.30 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.70 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.50 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Simon Bourdeaud'hui 16 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.88league 3.87
Red cards0.06league 0.22
Cards 5+38%league 43%
Fouls24.7league 23.1
Penalties0.19league 0.28
Home wins38%league 44%
Club Brugge KVNo previous matches with this referee.
Charleroi5 with this referee
Record2-1-2
Cards · opp.2.0 · 0.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L18 Oct 25A · Union St. Gilloise1–33
- W17 Sep 25A · Genk1–02
- D17 Aug 25H · Antwerp1–13
- L23 Dec 23A · St. Truiden0–10
- W23 Sep 23H · Kortrijk1–02
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Club Brugge KV14 games · scored 21 · conceded 13
2
5
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
4
1
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
3
76-90
Charleroi14 games · scored 18 · conceded 20
3
3
0-15
2
4
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
3
76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 16 · conceded 17
3
6
0-15
3
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
46-60
1
4
61-75
5
5
76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
3
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
2
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
