Club Brugge KV
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Club Brugge KV73.0%fair odds 1.37
Draw17.4%fair odds 5.76
Charleroi9.6%fair odds 10.37
Expected goals2.37 – 0.75total 3.12
Likeliest score2–012.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Charleroi
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Club Brugge KV ↓ · Charleroi → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Club Brugge KV goals, columns Charleroi goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–012.4%8.09
- 1–010.0%9.99
- 3–09.8%10.24
- 2–19.3%10.74
- 1–18.3%12.09
- 3–17.4%13.59
- 4–05.8%17.28
- 0–04.8%20.77
- 4–14.4%22.94
- 2–23.5%28.51
Winning margin
28.9%
Club Brugge KV by 3+
fair 3.46
21.6%
Club Brugge KV by 2
fair 4.64
22.5%
Club Brugge KV by 1
fair 4.44
17.4%
Draw
fair 5.76
6.9%
Charleroi by 1
fair 14.53
2.2%
Charleroi by 2
fair 45.89
0.6%
Charleroi by 3+
fair 172.93
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
21%5+
Club Brugge KV goals
9%0
22%1
26%2
21%3
22%4+
Charleroi goals
47%0
35%1
13%2
3%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Club Brugge KV win | 73.0% | 72.4% | +0.6 pp |
| Draw | 17.4% | 17.6% | -0.3 pp |
| Charleroi win | 9.6% | 9.9% | -0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 60.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 48.4% | 48.6% | -0.2 pp |
| Expected goals Club Brugge KV | 2.37 | 2.35 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Charleroi | 0.75 | 0.76 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Club Brugge KV win73.0%1.37
- Draw17.4%5.76
- Charleroi win9.6%10.37
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or draw90.4%1.11
- Double chance Club Brugge KV or Charleroi82.6%1.21
- Double chance Charleroi or draw27.0%3.70
- Draw no bet Club Brugge KV88.3%1.13
- Draw no bet Charleroi11.7%8.57
Goals
- Over 0.595.2%1.05
- Over 1.582.3%1.22
- Over 2.560.4%1.66
- Over 3.538.0%2.63
- Over 4.520.6%4.86
- Under 1.517.7%5.64
- Under 2.539.6%2.52
- Under 3.562.0%1.61
Both teams to score
- Yes48.4%2.07
- No51.6%1.94
- Yes and over 2.540.1%2.49
- Club Brugge KV win and yes30.7%3.25
- Draw and yes12.6%7.96
- Charleroi win and yes5.1%19.57
Team goals
- Club Brugge KV over 0.590.7%1.10
- Club Brugge KV over 1.568.5%1.46
- Club Brugge KV over 2.542.3%2.37
- Charleroi over 0.552.9%1.89
- Charleroi over 1.517.5%5.73
- Charleroi over 2.54.1%24.42
- Club Brugge KV clean sheet47.1%2.12
- Charleroi clean sheet9.3%10.70
- Club Brugge KV win to nil42.3%2.37
- Charleroi win to nil4.5%22.08
Handicap
- Club Brugge KV −1.550.4%1.98
- Club Brugge KV −2.528.9%3.46
- Charleroi +1.549.6%2.02
- Charleroi +2.571.1%1.41
- Charleroi −1.52.8%36.27
- Club Brugge KV +1.597.2%1.03
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored115
Favourite won47.0%
Avg chance given to result38.5%
1X2 Brier0.608
Over 2.5 called right52.2%
BTTS called right50.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 20 | 38.3% | 30.0% |
| 40–50% | 62 | 44.9% | 37.1% |
| 50–60% | 21 | 55.1% | 71.4% |
| 60–70% | 10 | 65.2% | 90.0% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 75.1% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 77 of 115 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6083 | 0.6008 |
| Avg chance given to result | 38.7% | 39.7% |
| Favourite won | 46.8% | 49.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 77 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗KVC Westerlo 0–0 Gent32·27·41
- ✓Union St. Gilloise 2–0 Cercle Brugge66·21·14
- ✗Standard Liege 0–0 Zulte Waregem42·28·30
- ✗KV Mechelen 1–1 Union St. Gilloise28·27·45
- ✗Gent 1–1 Genk42·26·31
- ✓St. Truiden 1–0 Standard Liege45·27·28
- ✗Anderlecht 1–0 Club Brugge KV30·27·43
- ✓Antwerp 3–1 RAAL La Louvière48·27·25
- ✓Charleroi 2–0 KVC Westerlo42·27·31
- ✗Cercle Brugge 1–2 OH Leuven47·27·26
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 115 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.