Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sun, Mar 22 · 17:30 Jan Breydelstadion, Brugge
Club Brugge KV 2nd · 60 pts · 29 played
First leg1–2 4–1Full time
KV Mechelen 4th · 45 pts · 29 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

Club Brugge KV were clear favourites.

Club Brugge KV were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 35). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Club Brugge KV. Club Brugge KV had 7.9 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7 and had to travel 90 km.

Away travel90 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d1 · 1
Club Brugge KV69%
Draw18%
KV Mechelen12%
Expected goals 2.37 – 0.91
Club Brugge KV63%
Draw22%
KV Mechelen15%
Expected goals 2.01 – 0.89
Club Brugge KV69%
Draw18%
KV Mechelen12%
Expected goals 2.37 – 0.91
Club Brugge KV62%
Draw21%
KV Mechelen17%
Expected goals 2.12 – 1.02
Club Brugge KV68%
Draw19%
KV Mechelen13%
Expected goals 2.30 – 0.90
Over 2.5 64% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Brugge)

No weather data yet

Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
  • Cards per match 5.6
  • Penalties per match 0.19
  • Matches 47

Team strength

Club Brugge KVKV Mechelen
66 L90 StrengthIn forecast 35
75 Current StrengthIn forecast 23
86 AttackIn forecast 18
58 DefenceIn forecast 23
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Club Brugge KV

Attack—
Defense risk—

KV Mechelen

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Club Brugge KVKV Mechelen
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.31
1.21 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.14
1.54 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
1.09 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.48
+0.36 Goals minus xGContext +0.15
86% Scored inContext 86%
28% Clean sheetsContext 28%
15.48 ShotsContext 9.93
5.41 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.79
35% On target shareContext 37%
11.25 Shots in the boxContext 6.96
70% Box shareContext 68%
12% ConversionContext 13%
2.16 OffsidesContext 2.30
11.69 Shots allowedContext 14.07
3.93 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.96
2.79 BlocksContext 4.07
3.00 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.11
72% Save rateContext 84%
63% PossessionIn forecast 50%
560 PassesContext 396
488 Accurate passesContext 322
87% Pass accuracyContext 81%
7.02 Team ratingContext 6.92
9.45 FoulsContext 10.48
11.31 Fouls sufferedContext 11.45
1.31 Yellow cardsContext 2.24
0.07 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 29 and 29 games
2.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20
1.68 xGVia Att/Def 1.19
1.22 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.53
+0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.21
90% Scored inContext 90%
20% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.70 ShotsContext 9.10
6.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.56
45% On target shareContext 35%
10.44 Shots in the boxContext 6.44
69% Box shareContext 69%
15% ConversionContext 15%
2.14 OffsidesContext 2.86
12.60 Shots allowedContext 13.20
4.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.44
3.50 BlocksContext 3.56
3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.22
69% Save rateContext 78%
60% PossessionIn forecast 51%
552 PassesContext 399
477 Accurate passesContext 319
87% Pass accuracyContext 80%
6.94 Team ratingContext 6.94
9.30 FoulsContext 12.10
9.60 Fouls sufferedContext 12.90
1.30 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Club Brugge KV
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km237 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel90 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Club Brugge KV KV Mechelen
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 14 Mar7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 15 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km90 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways237 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 31 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one138.1139.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Club Brugge KV Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
22S. Mignolet(G)
65J. Seys 44B. Mechele 4J. Ordoñez 64K. Sabbe
15R. Onyedika 25A. Stanković
8C. Tzolis 10H. Vetlesen 9Carlos Forbs
7N. Tresoldi
KV Mechelen Confirmed XI
3-4-3
13Nacho Mirás(G)
33T. St. Jago 8M. Konaté 2R. Halhal
3José Marsà 29D. Salifou 19A. Mrabti 7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode 14B. Raman 11B. Bafdili

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Club Brugge KV Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • Club Brugge KV+0.0 pp
  • Draw+0.0 pp
  • KV Mechelen+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Club Brugge KV · Home 2.29points per game · 14 home games
W-D-L
10-2-2
Scored
2.14
Conceded
1.29
KV Mechelen · Away 1.50points per game · 14 away games
W-D-L
6-3-5
Scored
1.36
Conceded
1.21

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

OpponentClub Brugge KVKV Mechelen
KVC Westerlo W 2–1 AD 5–5 H D 1–1 HW 1–0 A
Anderlecht D 2–2 HL 0–1 A W 1–0 HL 1–3 A
Charleroi W 2–1 AW 1–0 H W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
OH Leuven W 2–1 HW 1–0 A D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Cercle Brugge W 2–1 AW 2–0 H W 3–2 AD 0–0 H
Standard Liege W 3–0 HW 2–1 A L 0–1 HD 1–1 A
Union St. Gilloise L 0–1 AW 1–0 H L 0–1 AD 1–1 H
Zulte Waregem W 4–3 HW 1–0 A W 2–1 HD 1–1 A
RAAL La Louvière L 2–3 HL 0–1 A W 2–0 AW 3–2 H
Genk W 5–3 AW 2–1 H L 2–3 HW 1–0 A
Gent W 2–1 HD 1–1 A L 1–3 AD 1–1 H
Dender W 5–1 AW 2–1 H D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
St. Truiden L 2–3 AW 2–0 H L 0–1 AL 1–3 H
Antwerp L 0–1 HW 1–0 A W 2–0 HL 1–2 A
Points60 of 84 · 2.14 per game42 of 84 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Club Brugge KV wins2 draws1 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game0.67 – 1.00 Over 2.533% Both scored67% Clean sheets33% · 33%
  • 1 Aug 2025KV Mechelen2–1Club Brugge KV
  • 10 Dec 2023KV Mechelen0–0Club Brugge KV
  • 30 Jul 2023Club Brugge KV1–1KV Mechelen

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Club Brugge KVKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 1.901.31
Conceded per game 1.211.14
Match goals 3.102.45 3.28
Over 1.5 69%72%
Over 2.5 59%38% 64%
Over 3.5 24%28%
Both teams scored 59%62% 55%
Clean sheets 28%28%
Failed to score 14%14%
Games2929
Club Brugge KVKV MechelenForecast
Scored per game 2.401.40
Conceded per game 1.601.20
Match goals 4.002.60 3.28
Over 1.5 90%80%
Over 2.5 90%40% 64%
Over 3.5 40%30%
Both teams scored 80%60% 55%
Clean sheets 10%30%
Failed to score 10%10%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Club Brugge KVKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.364.68
Corners conceded4.805.71
Match total11.1610.399.91
Over 8.584% 21/2564% 18/28
Over 9.576% 19/2554% 15/28
Over 10.564% 16/2543% 12/28
Cards
Cards1.382.24
Opponent cards2.342.00
Match total3.724.244.06
Over 3.552% 15/2962% 18/29
Over 4.531% 9/2938% 11/29
Club Brugge KVKV MechelenLeague
Corners
Corners won6.114.22
Corners conceded4.675.00
Match total10.789.229.91
Over 8.589% 8/967% 6/9
Over 9.556% 5/933% 3/9
Over 10.544% 4/922% 2/9
Cards
Cards1.302.00
Opponent cards2.003.10
Match total3.305.104.06
Over 3.540% 4/1060% 6/10
Over 4.520% 2/1050% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 47 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards5.26league 3.84
Red cards0.34league 0.19
Cards 5+68%league 40%
Fouls23.2league 22.7
Penalties0.19league 0.32
Home wins40%league 41%
Club Brugge KV3 with this referee
Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0
  • W26 Dec 25A · Genk5–33
  • D24 Sep 25H · KVC Westerlo5–51
  • D24 Sep 23A · Anderlecht1–11
KV Mechelen3 with this referee
Record1-2-0 Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 1
  • D1 Feb 26A · OH Leuven2–26
  • D9 Nov 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
  • W24 Feb 24H · Kortrijk3–00

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

Club Brugge KV29 games · scored 55 · conceded 35
5 5 0-15
7 5 16-30
9 6 31-45
11 5 46-60
9 5 61-75
14 9 76-90
KV Mechelen29 games · scored 38 · conceded 33
7 2 0-15
5 4 16-30
7 4 31-45
5 5 46-60
5 7 61-75
9 11 76-90
Club Brugge KV10 games · scored 20 · conceded 14
3 1 0-15
2 16-30
6 3 31-45
5 3 46-60
2 2 61-75
4 3 76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 14 · conceded 12
3 0-15
1 2 16-30
1 4 31-45
3 1 46-60
2 3 61-75
4 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
OH Leuven Antwerp 10 Anderlecht Cercle Brugge 23 Club Brugge KV KV Mechelen 41 Zulte Waregem Charleroi 10 Standard Liege KVC Westerlo 00 St. Truiden Union St. Gilloise 13 RAAL La Louvière Genk 55 Dender Gent 13