Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Atalanta were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 58). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Como. Como had 8 days of rest, Atalanta 7 and had to travel 47 km.
Away travel47 kmRest days8 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
Como41%
Draw27%
Atalanta32%
Como38%
Draw27%
Atalanta35%
Como42%
Draw26%
Atalanta32%
Como34%
Draw27%
Atalanta39%
Como41%
Draw26%
Atalanta33%
Over 2.5 52%
Both score 56%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
RefereeLuca Pairetto
- Cards per match 4.8
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 68
Team strength
Como
Atalanta
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
66
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
59
72
AttackIn forecast
48
67
DefenceIn forecast
45
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAtalanta
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoAtalanta
1.68
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.36
0.73
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.91
1.42
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
0.91
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.98
+0.26
Goals minus xGContext
-0.17
73%
Scored inContext
82%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
36%
13.68
ShotsContext
14.23
4.95
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
36%
On target shareContext
30%
8.59
Shots in the boxContext
9.27
63%
Box shareContext
65%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.46
OffsidesContext
2.47
9.59
Shots allowedContext
10.77
3.62
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.82
3.06
BlocksContext
3.10
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.20
75%
Save rateContext
78%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
514
PassesContext
479
447
Accurate passesContext
407
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.94
13.45
FoulsContext
11.09
11.95
Fouls sufferedContext
10.64
2.23
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
1.55
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.04
+0.45
Goals minus xGContext
-0.24
80%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
14.10
ShotsContext
13.30
5.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.22
38%
On target shareContext
29%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
68%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
11%
1.50
OffsidesContext
3.14
8.70
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.20
2.63
BlocksContext
3.13
2.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
71%
Save rateContext
82%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
56%
537
PassesContext
486
471
Accurate passesContext
410
88%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.97
11.60
FoulsContext
12.70
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.70
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,030 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Atalanta
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel47 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Atalanta |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 8Serie A 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7Serie A 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 47 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,030 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 5 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
31M. Vojvoda
11A. Douvikas
Atalanta
Confirmed XI
29M. Carnesecchi(G)
69H. Ahanor
19B. Djimsiti
42G. Scalvini
47L. Bernasconi
13Éderson
15M. de Roon
77D. Zappacosta
59N. Zalewski
17C. De Ketelaere
9G. Scamacca
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.04 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Atalanta
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como-0.6 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- Atalanta+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-4-1
- Scored
- 1.82
- Conceded
- 0.64
Atalanta · Away
1.30points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-4-3
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.10
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | W 2–0 HW 3–0 A |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 A |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | D 1–1 AD 1–1 H |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | W 4–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 0–1 H |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | W 2–1 H |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 1–3 A |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | W 4–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 39 of 63 · 1.86 per game | 34 of 63 · 1.62 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws1 Atalanta wins
Goals per game1.67 – 1.67
Over 2.567%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 4 Oct 2025Atalanta1–1Como
- 25 Jan 2025Como1–2Atalanta
- 24 Sep 2024Atalanta2–3Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.68 | 1.36 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.73 | 0.91 | |
| Match goals | 2.41 | 2.27 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 77% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 32% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 18% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 50% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 36% | |
| Failed to score | 27% | 18% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| Como | Atalanta | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 0.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.20 | 2.75 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 30% | 52% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.79 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.26 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 7.05 | 10.38 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 32% 6/19 | 71% 15/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 21% 4/19 | 57% 12/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 16% 3/19 | 43% 9/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.32 | 1.55 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.09 | 1.36 | |
| Match total | 4.41 | 2.91 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 68% 15/22 | 41% 9/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 45% 10/22 | 0% 0/22 | |
| Como | Atalanta | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.10 | 5.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.10 | 5.67 | |
| Match total | 7.20 | 11.00 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 4.30 | 2.90 | 3.92 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Pairetto 68 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.53league 3.78
Red cards0.25league 0.16
Cards 5+53%league 36%
Fouls25.8league 25.6
Penalties0.40league 0.31
Home wins35%league 39%
Como4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 3.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
Reds2
- W6 Jan 26A · Pisa3–02
- L2 Mar 25A · AS Roma1–27
- L25 Jan 25H · Atalanta1–22
- L31 Oct 24H · Lazio1–52
Atalanta5 with this referee
Record4-0-1
Cards · opp.2.4 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W4 May 25A · Monza4–02
- W25 Jan 25A · Como2–13
- W14 Dec 24A · Cagliari1–03
- W30 Mar 24A · Napoli3–02
- L17 Sep 23A · Fiorentina2–32
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como21 games · scored 35 · conceded 15
7
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
8
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
Atalanta22 games · scored 30 · conceded 20
5
1
0-15
2
5
16-30
7
4
31-45
5
1
46-60
3
4
61-75
8
5
76-90
Como10 games · scored 20 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Atalanta10 games · scored 15 · conceded 7
4
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
5
61-75
6
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
