Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 19). Como had 5.9 days of rest, Cremonese 6 and had to travel 105 km.
Away travel105 kmRest days5.9 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Como62%
Draw23%
Cremonese15%
Como62%
Draw22%
Cremonese16%
Como61%
Draw23%
Cremonese16%
Como54%
Draw26%
Cremonese20%
Como62%
Draw22%
Cremonese16%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 48%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Di Bello
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 62
Team strength
Como
Cremonese
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
20
72
AttackIn forecast
16
67
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCremonese
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoCremonese
1.25
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.25
0.75
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.75
1.31
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
0.98
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
-0.06
Goals minus xGContext
+0.22
75%
Scored inContext
50%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.75
ShotsContext
6.00
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.00
29%
On target shareContext
50%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
4.00
57%
Box shareContext
58%
8%
ConversionContext
21%
—
OffsidesContext
2.67
9.50
Shots allowedContext
16.25
2.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.50
4.00
BlocksContext
5.00
1.67
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.75
56%
Save rateContext
86%
61%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
481
PassesContext
392
414
Accurate passesContext
318
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.83
16.00
FoulsContext
11.25
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.25
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.23
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.07
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.19
+0.17
Goals minus xGContext
+0.27
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
15.00
ShotsContext
7.80
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.10
29%
On target shareContext
40%
8.90
Shots in the boxContext
5.38
59%
Box shareContext
59%
9%
ConversionContext
17%
1.83
OffsidesContext
2.29
9.90
Shots allowedContext
16.70
3.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.63
BlocksContext
4.30
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.40
69%
Save rateContext
73%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
39%
478
PassesContext
356
411
Accurate passesContext
282
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.98
Team ratingContext
6.81
13.80
FoulsContext
10.00
13.70
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km566 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Cremonese
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel105 km167 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Cremonese |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep | 6Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 105 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 566 km | 167 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.2 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
14Jacobo Ramón
34Diego Carlos
27S. Posch
8Sergi Roberto
23M. Perrone
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
19N. Kühn
11A. Douvikas
Cremonese
Confirmed XI
16M. Silvestri(G)
15M. Bianchetti
6F. Baschirotto
24F. Terracciano
3G. Pezzella
32M. Payero
33A. Grassi
38W. Bondo
7A. Zerbin
11D. Johnsen
90F. Bonazzoli
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Cremonese
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Cremonese-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
2.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 0.50
Cremonese · Away
2.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Como | Cremonese | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 25% | 50% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 48% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 2.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 5.75 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 8.50 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Match total | 5.50 | 3.25 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Como | Cremonese | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.50 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.88 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.88 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 63% 5/8 | 75% 6/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 4/8 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 2/8 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.70 | 3.10 | 3.66 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Di Bello Italy · 62 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.15league 3.53
Red cards0.19league 0.10
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls26.2league 26.0
Penalties0.40league 0.23
Home wins32%league 40%
Como3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W3 May 25A · Parma1–01
- L4 Nov 24A · Empoli0–10
- D26 Aug 24A · Cagliari1–12
CremoneseNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como3 games · scored 3 · conceded 2
1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
Cremonese4 games · scored 5 · conceded 3
0-15
1
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
2
61-75
1
76-90
Como9 games · scored 12 · conceded 6
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
1
76-90
Cremonese10 games · scored 13 · conceded 14
2
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
2
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
5
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
