Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were clear favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (57 vs 40). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Como. Como had 13 days of rest, Fiorentina 6.8 and had to travel 283 km.
Away travel283 kmRest days13 · 6.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Como62%
Draw22%
Fiorentina16%
Como54%
Draw25%
Fiorentina21%
Como62%
Draw22%
Fiorentina16%
Como54%
Draw24%
Fiorentina21%
Como62%
Draw21%
Fiorentina17%
Over 2.5 57%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMatteo Marchetti
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 50
Team strength
Como
Fiorentina
57
L90 StrengthIn forecast
40
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
72
AttackIn forecast
42
67
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoFiorentina
1.61
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.13
0.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.58
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
0.89
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.43
+0.09
Goals minus xGContext
-0.35
70%
Scored inContext
75%
52%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
14.30
ShotsContext
13.79
5.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.67
36%
On target shareContext
27%
9.04
Shots in the boxContext
9.08
63%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
1.43
OffsidesContext
2.26
9.43
Shots allowedContext
13.08
3.55
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.00
BlocksContext
3.54
2.76
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.04
75%
Save rateContext
64%
62%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
525
PassesContext
426
458
Accurate passesContext
360
87%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.79
13.26
FoulsContext
12.29
11.91
Fouls sufferedContext
16.29
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.09
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.76
xGVia Att/Def
1.68
0.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.31
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
70%
Scored inContext
80%
60%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
15.20
ShotsContext
16.10
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
33%
On target shareContext
31%
10.20
Shots in the boxContext
10.70
68%
Box shareContext
67%
12%
ConversionContext
9%
1.33
OffsidesContext
2.13
8.20
Shots allowedContext
13.20
3.44
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.20
2.50
BlocksContext
4.40
2.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.70
68%
Save rateContext
64%
63%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
552
PassesContext
478
485
Accurate passesContext
417
88%
Pass accuracyContext
87%
6.92
Team ratingContext
6.96
11.40
FoulsContext
11.60
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.50
2.40
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest13 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel283 km819 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13Serie A 2025-2026, 1 Feb | 6.8Serie A 2025-2026, 7 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 283 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 819 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 9.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
31M. Vojvoda
33L. da Cunha
23M. Perrone
20M. Baturina
10N. Paz
19N. Kühn
11A. Douvikas
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
65F. Parisi
6L. Ranieri
5M. Pongračić
2Dodô
4M. Brescianini
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
19M. Solomon
20M. Kean
17J. Harrison
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores -0.01 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Fiorentina-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
1.92points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-5-1
- Scored
- 1.67
- Conceded
- 0.58
Fiorentina · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-5-6
- Scored
- 0.83
- Conceded
- 1.58
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Como | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | D 0–0 HD 1–1 A | L 0–2 A |
| Torino | W 6–0 HW 5–1 A | D 2–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Lazio | W 3–0 AW 2–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–3 H | D 1–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Bologna | D 1–1 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Pisa | W 3–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | W 1–0 H | W 5–1 H |
| Lecce | W 3–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| AS Roma | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Inter | L 0–4 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 H | L 1–3 A |
| Cagliari | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Napoli | D 0–0 A | L 1–2 AL 1–3 H |
| Verona | W 3–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 A | L 0–1 A |
| Juventus | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Cremonese | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Genoa | D 1–1 H | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 38 of 66 · 1.73 per game | 18 of 69 · 0.78 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 Como wins0 draws1 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game1.33 – 1.00
Over 2.533%
Both scored33%
Clean sheets33% · 33%
- 21 Sep 2025Fiorentina1–2Como
- 16 Feb 2025Fiorentina0–2Como
- 24 Nov 2024Como0–2Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.61 | 1.13 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.70 | 1.58 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.71 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 39% | 63% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 22% | 29% | |
| Both teams scored | 35% | 71% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 52% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 25% | |
| Games | 23 | 24 |
| Como | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.96 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 57% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 80% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.95 | 4.79 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.15 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 7.10 | 9.29 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 6/20 | 63% 15/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 4/20 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 15% 3/20 | 29% 7/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.39 | 2.33 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 2.42 | |
| Match total | 4.56 | 4.75 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 16/23 | 71% 17/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 11/23 | 58% 14/24 | |
| Como | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.40 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.00 | 4.70 | |
| Match total | 7.40 | 9.80 | 8.77 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.40 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.80 | 4.80 | 3.97 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Matteo Marchetti Italy · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.90league 3.81
Red cards0.18league 0.18
Cards 5+42%league 36%
Fouls25.3league 25.5
Penalties0.24league 0.32
Home wins40%league 38%
Como4 with this referee
Record2-0-2
Cards · opp.3.3 · 1.8
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds2
- W27 Dec 25A · Lecce3–04
- W28 Nov 25H · Sassuolo2–02
- L15 Mar 25A · AC Milan1–24
- L24 Nov 24H · Fiorentina0–23
Fiorentina10 with this referee
Record4-3-3
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 3
- L12 May 25A · Venezia1–24
- W24 Nov 24A · Como2–01
- D17 May 24H · Napoli2–21
- W21 Apr 24A · Salernitana2–04
- D2 Mar 24A · Torino0–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como22 games · scored 35 · conceded 15
7
2
0-15
5
1
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
4
46-60
8
2
61-75
8
4
76-90
Fiorentina23 games · scored 26 · conceded 36
2
5
0-15
3
5
16-30
3
5
31-45
8
8
46-60
6
5
61-75
4
8
76-90
Como10 games · scored 18 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
4
16-30
1
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 15 · conceded 13
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
1
31-45
5
5
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
