Como
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Como were slight favourites.
Como were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 34). Como had 16.1 days of rest, Genoa 15.1 and had to travel 156 km.
Away travel156 kmRest days16.1 · 15.1Matches / 14d0 · 0
Como48%
Draw27%
Genoa25%
Como49%
Draw26%
Genoa25%
Como48%
Draw27%
Genoa25%
Como41%
Draw28%
Genoa31%
Como49%
Draw26%
Genoa26%
Over 2.5 47%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Como)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Piccinini
- Cards per match 4.3
- Penalties per match 0.29
- Matches 45
Team strength
Como
Genoa
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
34
65
Current StrengthIn forecast
29
72
AttackIn forecast
23
67
DefenceIn forecast
44
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGenoa
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ComoGenoa
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
0.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.49
0.56
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.76
+0.00
Goals minus xGContext
-0.49
50%
Scored inContext
0%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
15.50
ShotsContext
6.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
1.50
23%
On target shareContext
23%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
3.00
61%
Box shareContext
45%
7%
ConversionContext
0%
—
OffsidesContext
—
9.50
Shots allowedContext
10.00
1.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
—
4.00
BlocksContext
5.00
1.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
—
67%
Save rateContext
67%
64%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
489
PassesContext
383
428
Accurate passesContext
291
88%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.80
16.00
FoulsContext
14.50
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.78
1.00
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
80%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
15.00
ShotsContext
7.50
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.90
31%
On target shareContext
39%
9.30
Shots in the boxContext
5.56
62%
Box shareContext
67%
10%
ConversionContext
12%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.40
9.80
Shots allowedContext
12.60
3.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.50
BlocksContext
3.80
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.56
74%
Save rateContext
74%
59%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
491
PassesContext
377
427
Accurate passesContext
296
87%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.80
13.60
FoulsContext
14.50
13.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.80
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Como
Rest16.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Genoa
Rest15.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel156 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Como |
Genoa |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 16.1Serie A 2025-2026, 30 Aug | 15.1Serie A 2025-2026, 31 Aug |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 156 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 0 / 2 | 0 / 0 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 5.9 | 4.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
31M. Vojvoda
6M. Caqueret
33L. da Cunha
17Jesús Rodríguez
10N. Paz
19N. Kühn
7Álvaro Morata
Genoa
Confirmed XI
1N. Leali(G)
3Aarón Martín
22J. Vásquez
5L. Østigård
20S. Sabelli
32M. Frendrup
73P. Masini
77M. Ellertsson
17R. Malinovskyi
15B. Norton-Cuffy
29L. Colombo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Genoa
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Como-0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Genoa+0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Como · Home
3.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Genoa · Away
No away games yet this season.
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Como wins1 draws0 Genoa wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 27 Apr 2025Como1–0Genoa
- 7 Nov 2024Genoa1–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Como | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Como | Genoa | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 1.50 | 0.50 | 2.56 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Over 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 47% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Como | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.00 | 2.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.00 | 5.50 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 8.00 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 100% 1/1 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 100% 1/1 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 3.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 6.50 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Como | Genoa | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.33 | 3.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.44 | 6.63 | |
| Match total | 8.77 | 9.76 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 63% 5/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 50% 4/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 38% 3/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.00 | 3.59 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Piccinini Italy · 45 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.11league 3.55
Red cards0.18league 0.07
Cards 5+42%league 34%
Fouls24.4league 25.7
Penalties0.29league 0.14
Home wins44%league 45%
Como3 with this referee
Record2-1-0
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W16 Feb 25A · Fiorentina2–02
- W30 Dec 24H · Lecce2–03
- D14 Sep 24H · Bologna2–22
Genoa4 with this referee
Record0-1-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D11 May 25A · Napoli2–22
- L22 Feb 25A · Inter0–12
- L27 Oct 24A · Lazio0–31
- L7 Oct 23H · AC Milan0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Como2 games · scored 2 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Genoa2 games · scored 0 · conceded 1
0-15
16-30
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Como10 games · scored 15 · conceded 6
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
31-45
3
2
46-60
1
1
61-75
4
76-90
Genoa10 games · scored 9 · conceded 12
1
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
